ZANZIBAR: TANZANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER UPDATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000609 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF/E FOR BYODER; AF/RSA FOR MBITTRICK, MHARPOLE DRL FOR KGILBRIDE, SCRAMPTON PASS TO MCC FOR GBREVNOV ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION BRUSSELS, LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON PHUM TZ SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: TANZANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER UPDATES AMBASSADOR RETZER ON RECONCILIATON EFFORTS REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 0559 ¶B. DAR ES SALAAM 0125 ¶C. DAR ES SALAAM 0084 DAR ES SAL 00000609 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) President Kikwete and insiders in the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Party agree that to close the divide in Zanzibar, the opposition Civic United Front (CUF) party's demand for some form of power-sharing in the Government of Zanzibar (GOZ) needs to be accommodated, Foreign Minister Bernard Membe told Ambassador Retzer on April 20. Both Membe and Kikwete were in Zanzibar (April 16-17),for private meetings with key leaders of the Zanzibar CCM, to listen to their concerns and suggestions. Membe indicated that the secretary generals of the two parties who are leading the SIPDIS reconciliation process are getting closer to a reasonable agreement. He cautioned, however, that the biggest hurdles are ahead: whether the CCM Central Committee and President Karume would both endorse and have the political will to implement whatever agreement is reached. End Summary. Membe Met with CCM Insiders on Zanzibar -------------- ¶2. (C) Minister Membe explained to Ambassador Retzer that "all indicators" point to a positive resolution of the Zanzibar CCM-CUF reconciliation talks "in the near future." For CCM the biggest stumbling block is that CUF has refused to recognize the Karume government; CUF's demand is that a government of national unity be formed well in advance of the 2010 Zanzibar general elections (Ref A). Membe said he visited Zanzibar April 17 and met separately with President Karume, Chief Minister Nadjhoa and the Speaker of the Zanzibar House of Representatives who expressed optimism about the direction of the interparty dialogue. Membe also spoke to CUF party leaders "off-line," who expressed satisfaction with progress to date. ¶3. (C) Insiders in both parties admit that a lasting solution in Zanzibar requires some form of coalition government, according to Membe. Membe believes that "there is appetite in both CCM Union and GOZ circles to accommodate CUF's request" for a power-sharing arrangement. One concern of the CCM is that there are more than two parties in Zanzibar. "We are not sure what will be the reaction of the other parties or if there could be a misunderstanding that CUF is being favored or being bought off." (NOTE: In the 2005 elections, seven parties were registered in Zanzibar; the official presidential results showed: CCM Karume, 53 percent; CUF Seif Hamad, 46 percent; other 5 parties' presidential candidates combined, less than 1 percent.) Need to Move Away from "Winner Takes All" Mentality -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question on what form a coalition government could take, Membe said that CCM and CUF would never be able to join forces as one party. He noted, however, that if a power-sharing arrangement were agreed upon, CCM and CUF officials could "co-exist within the same government" to establish a functioning GOZ. He mentioned several successful models of power-sharing governments in Africa, citing South Africa and Mozambique as examples. "Such arrangements are actually healthy," Membe said. In his view, the "winner takes all" mentality that persists in many African elections is one root cause of conflicts still brewing on the African continent. ¶5. (C) Membe said both sides in the reconciliation talks agree it is time to move past words and find a solution: "It can be done; Pemba in particular has been neglected for too long." He assured the Ambassador that the CCM, led by President Kikwete, is "working day and night" to resolve this DAR ES SAL 00000609 002.2 OF 002 issue, noting there remains only three years until the 2010 elections: "We cannot just talk and have no resolution because time is not on our side." He emphasized whatever proposal the reconciliation dialogue produces has to be approved by Presidents Kikwete and Karume and by the Central Committees of both CCM and CUF. "At this stage of the mediation it is critical that language of the proposal can be implemented and can generate the will from President Karume and both parties' Central Committees to put it into action." Pemba More Isolated Than Ever -------------- ¶6. (C) Membe underscored that President Kikwete is extremely concerned about the deepening divide between Pemba and Unguja and that the friction could rapidly increase or even erupt into violence. To bring the two Isles back together is a key goal of CCM. "While the islands have always been on different sides of the political fence, now the geographical separation has intensified. He explained for years a large boat went from Unguja to Pemba and back every day with people and cargo. "This boat is no longer working, whether by neglect or design," he lamented. "As a result, Pemba is more isolated than ever." ¶7. (SBU) The Union government is discussing with the GOZ how to recommence daily or even more frequent boat service and whether the boat can be repaired or a new one purchased. "The boat service was a bridge and unifying element, in a sense a symbol and reminder that the two isles are one Zanzibar," Membe said. He noted that CUF supporters on Pemba have increased to nearly 95 percent, while about 75 percent of Unguja-born Zanzibaris are CCM members, an indication that the geographical isolation has increased the political division. "We remain optimistic that both the geographical and political divides can be overcome through a coalition government," Membe closed. Ambassador Retzer assured the Foreign Minister the USG would continue to assist the citizens of both Pemba and Unguja equally through USG-funded programs in health and education as well as through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact that is currently in the process of comprehensive due diligence. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Post learned on April 17 that President Kikwete, who was already in Zanzibar, had asked Minister Membe to join him there. We suspect Kikwete, at a sensitive juncture, may be trying to determine President Karume's "bottom line" concerning what type of power-sharing arrangement he and his government could accept. However, Membe was crystal clear that at least two major hurdles still lie ahead: the CCM Central Committee and President Karume's willingness to implement whatever reconciliation agreement may be reached. DELLY