ZANZIBAR: TANZANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER UPDATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000609

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: TANZANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER UPDATES
AMBASSADOR RETZER ON RECONCILIATON EFFORTS

REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 0559


B. DAR ES SALAAM 0125

C. DAR ES SALAAM 0084

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Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) President Kikwete and insiders in the Chama Cha
Mapinduzi (CCM) Party agree that to close the divide in
Zanzibar, the opposition Civic United Front (CUF) party's
demand for some form of power-sharing in the Government of
Zanzibar (GOZ) needs to be accommodated, Foreign Minister
Bernard Membe told Ambassador Retzer on April 20. Both Membe
and Kikwete were in Zanzibar (April 16-17),for private
meetings with key leaders of the Zanzibar CCM, to listen to
their concerns and suggestions. Membe indicated that the
secretary generals of the two parties who are leading the

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reconciliation process are getting closer to a reasonable
agreement. He cautioned, however, that the biggest hurdles
are ahead: whether the CCM Central Committee and President
Karume would both endorse and have the political will to
implement whatever agreement is reached. End Summary.

Membe Met with CCM Insiders on Zanzibar
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2. (C) Minister Membe explained to Ambassador Retzer that
"all indicators" point to a positive resolution of the
Zanzibar CCM-CUF reconciliation talks "in the near future."
For CCM the biggest stumbling block is that CUF has refused
to recognize the Karume government; CUF's demand is that a
government of national unity be formed well in advance of the
2010 Zanzibar general elections (Ref A). Membe said he
visited Zanzibar April 17 and met separately with President
Karume, Chief Minister Nadjhoa and the Speaker of the
Zanzibar House of Representatives who expressed optimism
about the direction of the interparty dialogue. Membe also
spoke to CUF party leaders "off-line," who expressed
satisfaction with progress to date.


3. (C) Insiders in both parties admit that a lasting solution
in Zanzibar requires some form of coalition government,
according to Membe. Membe believes that "there is appetite
in both CCM Union and GOZ circles to accommodate CUF's
request" for a power-sharing arrangement. One concern of the
CCM is that there are more than two parties in Zanzibar. "We
are not sure what will be the reaction of the other parties
or if there could be a misunderstanding that CUF is being
favored or being bought off." (NOTE: In the 2005 elections,
seven parties were registered in Zanzibar; the official
presidential results showed: CCM Karume, 53 percent; CUF Seif
Hamad, 46 percent; other 5 parties' presidential candidates
combined, less than 1 percent.)

Need to Move Away from "Winner Takes All" Mentality
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4. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question on what form
a coalition government could take, Membe said that CCM and
CUF would never be able to join forces as one party. He
noted, however, that if a power-sharing arrangement were
agreed upon, CCM and CUF officials could "co-exist within the
same government" to establish a functioning GOZ. He
mentioned several successful models of power-sharing
governments in Africa, citing South Africa and Mozambique as
examples. "Such arrangements are actually healthy," Membe
said. In his view, the "winner takes all" mentality that
persists in many African elections is one root cause of
conflicts still brewing on the African continent.


5. (C) Membe said both sides in the reconciliation talks
agree it is time to move past words and find a solution: "It
can be done; Pemba in particular has been neglected for too
long." He assured the Ambassador that the CCM, led by
President Kikwete, is "working day and night" to resolve this

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issue, noting there remains only three years until the 2010
elections: "We cannot just talk and have no resolution
because time is not on our side." He emphasized whatever
proposal the reconciliation dialogue produces has to be
approved by Presidents Kikwete and Karume and by the Central
Committees of both CCM and CUF. "At this stage of the
mediation it is critical that language of the proposal can be
implemented and can generate the will from President Karume
and both parties' Central Committees to put it into action."

Pemba More Isolated Than Ever
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6. (C) Membe underscored that President Kikwete is extremely
concerned about the deepening divide between Pemba and Unguja
and that the friction could rapidly increase or even erupt
into violence. To bring the two Isles back together is a key
goal of CCM. "While the islands have always been on different
sides of the political fence, now the geographical separation
has intensified. He explained for years a large boat went
from Unguja to Pemba and back every day with people and
cargo. "This boat is no longer working, whether by neglect or
design," he lamented. "As a result, Pemba is more isolated
than ever."


7. (SBU) The Union government is discussing with the GOZ how
to recommence daily or even more frequent boat service and
whether the boat can be repaired or a new one purchased.
"The boat service was a bridge and unifying element, in a
sense a symbol and reminder that the two isles are one
Zanzibar," Membe said. He noted that CUF supporters on Pemba
have increased to nearly 95 percent, while about 75 percent
of Unguja-born Zanzibaris are CCM members, an indication that
the geographical isolation has increased the political
division. "We remain optimistic that both the geographical
and political divides can be overcome through a coalition
government," Membe closed. Ambassador Retzer assured the
Foreign Minister the USG would continue to assist the
citizens of both Pemba and Unguja equally through USG-funded
programs in health and education as well as through the
Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact that is
currently in the process of comprehensive due diligence.

Comment
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8. (C) Post learned on April 17 that President Kikwete, who
was already in Zanzibar, had asked Minister Membe to join him
there. We suspect Kikwete, at a sensitive juncture, may be
trying to determine President Karume's "bottom line"
concerning what type of power-sharing arrangement he and his
government could accept. However, Membe was crystal clear
that at least two major hurdles still lie ahead: the CCM
Central Committee and President Karume's willingness to
implement whatever reconciliation agreement may be reached.
DELLY