AFTER CUF DECLARES TALKS HAVE FAILED, NEW CCM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 001159

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT AF/E FOR RMEYERS; AF/RSA FOR MBITTRICK
ADDIS ABABA FOR AU MISSION
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: AFTER CUF DECLARES TALKS HAVE FAILED, NEW CCM
OFFER APPEARS

REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 0888

B. DAR ES SALAAM 1075

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Purnell Delly for
reasons 1.4b and d.

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The opposition Civic United Front (CUF) party chairman
Dr. Ibrahim Lipumba declared August 7 that the Zanzibar
reconciliation talks between ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi
(CCM) and CUF had failed. In the days after this
declaration, CCM proposed a way forward through the impasse
through back channel contacts, and CUF privately accepted the
proposal. The two parties continue to trade barbs in public,
and it remains unclear if both sides will be able to move
forward toward a solution to the political stalemate on
Zanzibar. End summary.

CUF Declares Talks Have Failed
--------------


2. (C) In an August 13 meeting, Ismail Jussa, a member of the
CUF Central Committee and Advisor on Foreign Relations, told
the DCM that nine days before the August 15 deadline for
reaching an agreement in the Zanzibar reconciliation talks
between CCM and CUF, CUF's leaders decided to manage their
members' expectations for the talks -- and put additional
pressure on CCM -- by releasing a statement that the talks
had not produced a resolution.


3. (U) At an August 7 press conference, CUF Chairman Dr.
Ibrahim Lipumba declared that "the talks have failed."
Lipumba stated that there had been no recent contact between
the Secretary-Generals of the two parties, and that President
Jakaya Kikwete had "failed to keep his promise" to resolve
the political impasse on Zanzibar. He further stated that
the two parties could no longer solve their problems on their
own, and called for the international community to intervene,
predicting that if nothing was done to resolve the Zanzibar
impasse, the result could be an outbreak of violence in
Zanzibar.

New CCM Offer Appears
--------------


4. (C) Jussa told the DCM that Lipumba's remarks prompted an
immediate response from CCM, and on August 12, Rostam Aziz,
CCM Member of Parliament (Igunga District),presented Jussa
and CUF Secretary General Seif Sharif Hamad with a proposal
for a way forward. (Note: It is conventional wisdom that
Rostam Aziz wields extraordinary influence in CCM. Jussa
recently told the DCM, "I don't know what magic that guy has,
but he is the power behind the throne." End note.)


5. (C) Acknowledging to Jussa that CCM would need to offer
CUF "more than words," Aziz proposed the following:

(i) By August 15, President Kikwete would make a
statement reaffirming his personal commitment to the
reconciliation talks and directing the parties to move
forward;

(ii) President Karume (of Zanzibar) would appoint two
CUF members to the Zanzibar House of Representatives within
the next three weeks;

(iii) If Karume does so, CUF would formally recognize
President Karume's government (CUF has refused to do this
since the October 2005 presidential election in Zanzibar);

(iv) After the CCM Party Congress scheduled for early
November 2007, President Karume would appoint at least three
CUF ministers to his government in an interim arrangement; and

(v) The parties continue their dialogue, in order to
incorporate the power-sharing arrangement they agree on into
the constitution before 2010.


DAR ES SAL 00001159 002 OF 002



6. (C) CUF Secretary General Hamad requested Aziz's offer in
writing, but their request was refused, according to Jussa.
Jussa speculated that Aziz wanted to keep the proposal from
the general CCM membership, and certain CCM leaders, while he
continued to negotiate within CCM. Jussa further stated that
after discussion by the CUF Defense Committee, CUF agreed to
Aziz's proposal.


7. (C) The DCM asked Jussa what CUF would do if nothing Aziz
promised came to fruition. Jussa replied that CUF would be
back where it started, at an impasse, adding, "We want to do
everything we can to avoid violence." He further stated that
if no power-sharing arrangement was agreed upon and put in
place before the 2010 elections, CUF will petition for the
United Nations or another international body to conduct and
monitor the 2010 elections in Zanzibar. In the absence of a
power-sharing government, CUF views this as the only way to
ensure a transparent election free from Government of
Zanzibar influence.

CCM Keeps Word on First Step
--------------


8. (U) On August 14, the State House released a written
statement by President Kikwete, both in his capacity as
president and as chairman of CCM, reaffirming his commitment
to the reconciliation talks. He stated, in part: "We on the
side of CCM do not think that we are at a point where we can
say that we have failed, and therefore the talks should be
dismantled.... I urge our fellow colleagues from CUF not to
withdraw from these talks, but to continue with our
dialogue." (Note: An Embassy translation of the President's
complete Swahili text is available upon request.)

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Despite the potential for progress via the five-point
agreement proposed by CCM and accepted by CUF, the outcome of
the Zanzibar reconciliation talks remains unclear. On one
hand, the two parties appear to have agreed on a way forward,
and President Kikwete has fulfilled the first condition of
the agreement. On the other hand, the talks have been
plagued by unfulfilled promises. CCM's refusal to put its
agreement in writing and its demand that CUF recognize the
Karume government early in the process (with the knowledge
that withholding of recognition is the last card in CUF's
hand) may be signs that CCM does not intend to keep its end
of the bargain. In addition, CCM insisted that certain
obligations be delayed until after the CCM Congress.
President Kikwete's August 14 statement has also placed the
burden of moving forward on CUF rather than CCM,


10. (C) While the slow pace at which CCM has allowed the
talks to progress may be the result of the party's culture
and internal wrangling, it could also be the result of CCM's
attempt to drag the talks out as long as possible - perhaps
until 2010. According to Jussa, CUF's only plan for moving
forward in the wake of CCM stalling tactics would be a
petition for international involvement to oversee the 2010
elections. The fact that CUF leadership has not proposed any
other form of political action (non-violent protest, for
example) may indicate a lack of confidence that they have
sufficient control over CUF's members in Zanzibar to ensure
that peaceful protests would not turn violent. End comment.
RETZER