LOCAL SYRIAN ELECTIONS: NO FOLLOW-THROUGH ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000864

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SY
SUBJECT: LOCAL SYRIAN ELECTIONS: NO FOLLOW-THROUGH ON
PROMISED ELECTORAL REFORM

Classified By: CDA Michael Corbin, for reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary. Municipal elections in Syria, scheduled for
August 26, have failed to inspire the public and lack the
large, public expeditures that characterized Parliamentary
elections earlier this year. The lack of enthusiasm reflects
a widespread lack of faith in the system and the well-founded
belief among Syrians that local government wields very little
power. Early hopes that the government might follow through
on promises of electoral reform -- periodically floated
since the 2005 Ba'th Party Congress -- have fizzled as the
promised new electoral law has failed to materialize.
Consequently, the municipal elections are all but certain to
fit the Syrian model of heavily managed elections. Most
opposition groups including the Damascus Declaration, have
announced they will boycott the poll, although some Kurdish
groups say they will run in the elections in the Northeast.
End Summary.

OVERVIEW


2. (U) On July 24, President Bashar al-Asad issued decree
number 303 announcing that elections at the level of regional
governorates and governate capitals, including Damascus,
would be held on Sunday, August 26. The Minister of Local
Administration and Environment, Hilal al-Atrash, followed
with a decree announcing the same date for urban area
municipal elections. Each governorate soon followed suit
with their own decree announcing elections for village
councils.


3. (U) Approximately two-thirds of the seats in councils at
the governate, city, town and village level are up for
election on August 26. The other one-third of seats are
appointed by the government, as are mayors and governors.

PUBLIC REACTION


4. (SBU )Thus far, the campaign for municipal elections has
been characterized by a lack of fanfare and public interest.
Though official banners urging the public to vote began to
appear in Damascus after the official start of campaigning on
August 6, banners for individual candidates have only become
more noticeable within the past week. While Emboffs have
seen some election banners in Damascus and Deir az-Zour, the
tents, performers and general festive atmosphere that
accompanied the parliamentary election and presidential
plebiscite have been largely absent. Moreover, Embassy
reports from Daraa, Missyaf and Homs point to a distinct lack
of interest among the local population.


5. (C) Civil society activists and opposition members argue
that the lackluster response stems from the widespread and
well-founded assumption among Syrians that local government,
particularly in major cities, wields very little power.
Though we have heard anecdotally that Syrians place more
importance on local administration at the village level,
Embassy officers have not seen markedly greater interest in
the elections outside Damascus. Finally, diplomatic contacts
observe that Syrians may be feeling election fatigue, with
these elections coming on the heels of the much more
high-profile parliamentary elections and presidential
referendum earlier this year.

EARLY HINTS OF ELECTION REFORM PROVE UNFOUNDED


6. (SBU) The general lack of enthusiasm for the upcoming
elections persisted despite early indications that the
government might uphold promises to allow more open municipal
elections. Since the June 2005 Ba'th Party Congress
recommendation to revise the election laws for parliamentary
and municipal elections, the SARG has periodically raised the
issue of a new law for local elections. In early 2007, SARG
officials made public statements of intending to follow the
"Turkish model" for local elections, going so far as hosting
a technical delegation made up of Turkish experts. On May
15, regional Arab daily al-Hayat quoted al-Atrash as saying
"a political decision was made to prepare for a new local
administration law that will practically lead to entirely
free elections in 2007, away from closed lists,." (Note:
Though Syrian voters ostensibly receive an empty ballot on
which to enter the names of their chosen candidates, in
practice, voters are accosted at polling stations by party
representatives -- mostly from the government-sanctioned

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National-Progressive Front (NPF) -- with pre-ordained lists
of candidates reflecting SARG preferences. Due to pressure
or a lack of voter awareness, these lists become the de-facto
ballot in most elections. End note.)


7. (C) The early buzz among political commentators and others
on the election highlighted the possibility that the SARG
might indeed refrain from publishing lists of its preferred
NPF candidates. SARG support since 2005 of a UNDP program
focused on local election reform also raised some hope for
greater openness during this round of elections. Within the
last few days, however, election banners nation-wide once
again appeared with NPF lists of names prominently displayed.
Al-Atrash also backed away from earlier promises of election
reform. On August 6, he told al-Thawra that, "the (election)
law has been almost finished but shall not be passed before
being evaluated." He then added, "the (election) law can be
applied after the elections."


8. (C) Another sign of the general ambivalence toward the
election is the lack of new candidates. Civil society
activist and academic Radwan Ziadeh pointed out that some of
the independent candidates in Damascus were losers from the
parliamentary elections. Many of the failed parliamentary
candidates have not even purchased new posters, using instead
the same ones they did in the parliamentary campaigns in
March. Diplomatic contacts shared similar observations,
noting that many parliamentary candidates may have run in the
parliamentary elections expecting to lose but with the hopes
of buying some name recognition for the local elections.


9. (C) Ziadeh also noted that several regime insiders are
running as candidates. In Darayyah, a medium sized city just
south of Damascus, the driver of Vice President Faroukh
al-Shara'a's wife will run for one of the 16 available seats
as are a number of sons of Ba'ath Party members and security
service officers, according to Ziadeh.

OPPOSITION RESPONSE


10. (C) The Damascus Declaration (DD) announced August 11 it
would boycott elections. DD leader and former political
prisoner Riad Seif dismissed the idea that local elections
would be any freer than past elections. Seif said that the
DD did not want to lend any credibility to a deeply flawed
election process that needed complete overhaul. Fawaz Tello,
another former political prisoner and DD member echoed
Seif,s comments and added that the DD did not want to waste
valuable resources on an election that nobody cared about and
that would produce local officials with no power. Tello also
said that the imprisonment of Seif and fellow former MP
Mahmoud Homsi provide an illustration of what the regime will
do to well-intentioned politicians who, if elected, try to
change the system.


11. (C) Not all opposition groups will boycott the local
elections, however. Three Kurdish parties -- the Kurdish
Yekiti Party, Kurdish Democratic Union Party and the Kurdish
Future Movement -- announced they will combine forces to run
in the elections in the Northeast of the country. The
Kurdish Future Movement said in a statement on August 15 that
their goal was to use the opportunity of local elections to
present an alternative to the regime and take a stand against
the "sham" elections. According to the Damascus
representative of the Kurdish Future Movement, Hervin Ose,
the goal of the three parties is to not only field their own
candidates but to encourage independent Kurdish and Arab
community leaders to stand for office.


12. (SBU) Comment. The SARG,s failure to follow through on
its proposed reforms fits a larger pattern of retrenchment on
political freedom in the country. Moreover, the regime has
shown a relative lack of enthusiasm in promoting these
elections. There have been some public announcements
encouraging people to vote but not nearly as many as there
were for the Parliamentary elections and the Presidential
referendum.
CORBIN