SYRIA'S RIAD SEIF LOOKING FOR POLITICAL SPACE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000053 SIPDIS SIPDIS PARIS FOR WALLER, LONDON FOR TSOU E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM SY LE SUBJECT: SYRIA'S RIAD SEIF LOOKING FOR POLITICAL SPACE IN UPCOMING ELECTIONS REF: DAMASCUS 0046 CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MICHAEL H. CORBIN FOR REASONS 1.4 B/D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SYRIAN OPPOSITION LEADER RIAD SEIF MET JANUARY 9 WITH A/DCM TO DISCUSS HIS DAMASCUS DECLARATION (DD) GROUP'S PLANS TO FIELD CANDIDATES IN THE APRIL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND CAPITALIZE ON VOTERS' ANGER OVER THE REGIME'S DOMESTIC POLICIES. THE AVERAGE SYRIAN BACKS WITHOUT MUCH RESERVATION THE REGIMES FOREIGN POLICIES AND RESENTS THE WEST BUT BECOMES ANGRY AND CRITICAL OF THE REGIME AS SOON AS THE TALK TURNS TO INTERNAL ISSUES, SEIF SAID. REGIME FIGURES REMAIN NERVOUS ABOUT THE PROPOSED SPECIAL LEBANON TRIBUNAL BEING SET UP TO TRY THOSE CHARGED WITH THE ASSASSINATION OF FORMER LEBANESE PM HARIRI, SEIF SAID. FOOTAGE OF SADDAM HUSSEIN'S EXECUTION HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SUNNI UNEASE ABOUT ASCENDANT SHIITE AND IRANIAN POWER IN IRAQ AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REGIME IN THE COMING WEEKS TO MOVE TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL STANCE TOWARD IRAQ, ASSERTED SEIF WHO IS SUNNI. SEIF INDICATED THAT USG STATEMENTS ABOUT SYRIA ARE MOST EFFECTIVE WHEN HIGHLIGHTING FLAWED SARG INTERNAL POLICIES. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY IN ELECTIONS: THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE DAMASCUS DECLARATION GROUP (DD),WHICH WAS FORMED MORE THAN A YEAR AGO AND INCLUDES A RANGE OF GOVERNMENT CRITICS, DECIDED AT ITS JANUARY 6 MEETING THAT THE GROUP WOULD FIELD CANDIDATES FOR THE APRIL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, ACCORDING TO SEIF, THE COMMITTEE HEAD, IN A JANUARY 9 MEETING WITH A/DCM AND POLOFF. CANDIDATES FROM ACROSS SYRIA WILL REGISTER AS INDEPENDENTS AND WILL ONLY LATER DECLARE THEMSELVES AS PART OF A DD SLATE. ALTHOUGH THE DD COMMITTEE DID NOT EXPECT MANY OF ITS CANDIDATES TO WIN, THEY WANT TO CAPITALIZE ON THE REGIME'S DESIRE TO PROMOTE ITSELF INTERNATIONALLY AS ALLOWING A MODICUM OF POLITICAL FREEDOM. "IF THEY GIVE US THIS SPACE, WE HAVE TO USE IT TO THE MAXIMUM," SAID SEIF, WHO NOTED THAT HIS FELONY CONVICTION ON TRUMPED-UP POLITICAL GROUNDS IN 2001 PREVENTED HIM FROM RUNNING. (NOTE: SEIF'S DAUGHTER, JOUMANA, ARRIVED LATER IN THE CONVERSATION AND WAS TAKEN ABACK WHEN HER FATHER SUGGESTED SHE COULD RUN FOR OFFICE IN HIS STEAD. JOUMANA, WHO ASSISTS HER FATHER IN HIS POLITICAL ORGANIZING AND WHO LOBBIED ON HIS BEHALF DURING HIS YEARS IN PRISON, IS IN THE PROCESS OF FINAL EXAMS TO BECOME A LAWYER. END NOTE.) ¶3. (C) THE DD WAS STILL WORKING OUT THE LOGISTICS OF FIELDING CANDIDATES, INCLUDING HOW IT WOULD RAISE CAMPAIGN FUNDS, SEIF SAID. WHEN HE RAN FOR OFFICE IN 1998, HE SPENT USD 150,000 ON CAMPAIGN POSTERS AND STIPENDS FOR TWO OR THREE ELECTION MONITORS IN FLUORESCENT "FRIENDS OF RIAD SEIF T-SHIRTS" AT EACH OF SYRIA'S APPROXIMATE 250 VOTING CENTERS, SEIF SAID. DD CANDIDATES WILL USE THEIR CAMPAIGN TO LINK FOR VOTERS REGIME BEHAVIOR WITH RISING DOMESTIC WOES SUCH AS CORRUPTION AND INFLATION, HE SAID. THE AVERAGE SYRIAN ARDENTLY AGREES WITH THE REGIME'S FOREIGN POLICIES, PARTICULARLY ITS SUPPORT FOR HIZBALLAH AND HAMAS, AND RESENTS THE U.S. AND THE WEST FOR PERCEIVED ANTI-ARAB, ANTI-ISLAMIC POLICIES, SEIF SAID. THE SAME SYRIAN, HOWEVER, BECOMES ANGRY AND CRITICAL OF THE REGIME AS SOON AS THE TALK TURNS TO INTERNAL ISSUES SUCH AS INFLATION, PRICE HIKES, MONOPOLIES, AND CORRUPTION, SEIF SAID. "OUR JOB WILL BE TO TELL THE PEOPLE THAT THE LONGER THE REGIME STAYS, THE BIGGER OUR PROBLEMS," SEIF STATED. HE ALSO ASSERTED, IN A REFRAIN WE HAVE HEARD FROM OTHERS IN THE OPPOSITION, THAT U.S. STATEMENTS ABOUT SYRIA ARE MOST EFFECTIVE WHEN HIGHLIGHTING FLAWED SARG INTERNAL POLICIES, VERSUS A STRICT FOCUS ON THE REGIME'S FOREIGN POLICIES. ¶4. (C) DAMASCUS DECLARATION ACTIVITIES: DD MEMBERS HOPED THAT ELECTIONS WOULD BROADEN THEIR GROUP'S BASE, WHICH REMAINS LIMITED TO A SMALL URBAN ELITE, SEIF SAID. DD MEMBERS ARE SEEKING TO DOUBLE THEIR EXECUTIVE COUNCIL, WHICH STANDS AT APPROXIMATELY 30 MEMBERS, SEIF SAID. IN MARCH, THE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WOULD ELECT A NEW CHAIRPERSON, SAID SEIF, NOTING THAT HE WOULD DECLINE TO SEEK A SECOND TERM SO AS TO HAVE MORE FREEDOM TO EXPRESS HIS VIEWS AS A POLITICAL LEADER RATHER THAN AS A CHAIRMAN SEEKING CONSENSUS. ¶5. (C) SYRIA-LEBANON: SEIF ARGUED, AS HE HAS IN THE PAST, THAT THE REGIME REMAINS ISOLATED AND THAT REGIME FIGURES ARE NERVOUS ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL TO TRY THOSE CHARGED IN CONNECTION WITH THE ASSASSINATION OF FORMER LEBANESE PM RAFIK HARIRI AND OTHERS. THE TRIBUNAL REMAINS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE REGIME, AS IT KNOWS THAT ANY SYRIAN FIGURE HANDED OVER FOR TRIAL, IF HIS FAMILY WERE PROTECTED, WOULD REVEAL EVERYTHING THAT HE KNEW ABOUT SYRIAN INVOLVEMENT IN THE ASSASSINATION, SEIF SAID. UNLIKE IDEOLOGICALLY-DRIVEN HIZBALLAH MEMBERS, IN SYRIA, THE REGIME IS RUN BY OPPORTUNISTS WHO ONLY LOOK OUT FOR THEIR OWN INTERESTS, SEIF STATED. LATE IN 2006, REGIME FIGURES WERE BUOYED BY VISITS FROM EUROPEAN OFFICIALS AND U.S. CONGRESSMEN, BUT THEY WERE DISAPPOINTED BY INTERLOCUTORS' INSISTENCE THAT SYRIA MUST CEASE INTERFERENCE IN LEBANON, SEIF ASSERTED. SYRIANS WERE CLOSELY WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS IN LEBANON AND FEARED THAT IF THE SINIORA GOVERNMENT FELL THERE WOULD BE NO WAY TO GET A NEW GOVERNMENT, LEAVING A VACUUM IN ITS WAKE, SEIF CLAIMED. ¶6. (C) SYRIA-IRAQ: TELEVISED FOOTAGE OF SECTARIAN TAUNTING DURING SADDAM HUSSEIN'S EXECUTION HAS PUT THE SARG IN A DIFFICULT POSITION IN ITS DEALINGS WITH IRAQ BY HIGHLIGHTING THE SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE AND THE RISING REGIONAL INFLUENCE OF PREDOMINATELY-SHIA IRAN, SEIF ASSERTED. SARG OFFICIALS WOULD SEEK FOR THE TIME BEING TO ASSUME A NEUTRAL STANCE TOWARD IRAQ BECAUSE TO ACT PRO-SUNNI WOULD GO AGAINST THE REGIME'S RELATIONSHIP WITH PRO-SHIA IRAN, BUT TO ACT PRO-SHIA WOULD AGGRAVATE SYRIA'S SUNNI MAJORITY, WHICH IS UNEASY ABOUT THE MINORITY ALAWITE REGIME'S COZY RELATIONSHIP WITH IRAN, SAID SEIF WHO IS SUNNI. (NOTE: THIS UNEASE HAS FED PARANOID AND TO DATE, UNCONFIRMED RUMORS ABOUT IRANIAN EFFORTS TO CONVERT POOR SYRIAN SUNNIS TO SHIISM. END NOTE.) ¶7. (C) COMMENT: IN DEALING WITH THE SARG, SEIF CONSISTENTLY SEEKS WAYS TO FORCE THE REGIME TO CHOOSE BETWEEN DIFFICULT OPTIONS. THE DD IS FOLLOWING THIS APPROACH BY CHOOSING TO FIELD CANDIDATES IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, BELIEVING THE SARG WILL WANT TO BALANCE ITS CONTROL ON GOVERNMENT CRITICS WITH A DESIRE TO DEMONSTRATE INTERNATIONALLY ITS CAPABILITY FOR POLITICAL REFORM AND A DEGREE OF POLITICAL OPENNESS. THIS IS A RISKY COURSE OF ACTION FOR THE GROUP, WHICH HAS LARGELY FOCUSED ON INTERNAL ACTIVITIES, BUT MAY BE IN PART DUE TO SEIF'S GROWING FRUSTRATION OVER HIS OWN SELF-PERCEIVED INACTION POLITICALLY. AT ONE POINT IN THE CONVERSATION, SEIF NOTED THAT HE WAS GOING THROUGH A DIFFICULT PERIOD OF SELF-EXAMINATION ABOUT WHETHER TO RETURN TO BUSINESS OR TAKE A BOLDER STANCE AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT (WHICH COULD MEAN A RETURN TO PRISON). FOR THE TIME BEING, HE SEEMED TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE MORE RISKY STANCE OF CONFRONTING THE REGIME. ¶8. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: SEIF AND THE DD'S APPROACH TO THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS CONTRASTS RATHER STARKLY WITH THE MORE SKEPTICAL VIEW VOICED BY FELLOW DD AND OPPOSITION MEMBER RIAD TURK (REPORTED REFTEL),WHICH DISMISSED THE UTILITY OF PARTICIPATING IN THE ELECTIONS, SEEING IT AS TRYING TO PLAY A GAME WHEN THE REGIME HAS STACKED THE RULES COMPLETELY AND BOUGHT OFF THE REFEREES. A KEY QUESTION REMAINS TO WHAT EXTENT BASHAR WILL SEEK TO USE THE ELECTIONS TO BURNISH HIS IMAGE BOTH DOMESTICALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY AS A "REFORMER." THE YET-TO-BE ADOPTED ELECTION REFORM MAY BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF HOW BASHAR INTENDS TO PLAY THE ELECTIONS. CORBIN