SYRIA'S RIAD SEIF LOOKING FOR POLITICAL SPACE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000053

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WALLER, LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SY LE
SUBJECT: SYRIA'S RIAD SEIF LOOKING FOR POLITICAL SPACE IN
UPCOMING ELECTIONS

REF: DAMASCUS 0046

CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MICHAEL H. CORBIN FOR REASONS 1.4 B/D


1. (C) SUMMARY: SYRIAN OPPOSITION LEADER RIAD SEIF MET
JANUARY 9 WITH A/DCM TO DISCUSS HIS DAMASCUS DECLARATION (DD)
GROUP'S PLANS TO FIELD CANDIDATES IN THE APRIL PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS AND CAPITALIZE ON VOTERS' ANGER OVER THE REGIME'S
DOMESTIC POLICIES. THE AVERAGE SYRIAN BACKS WITHOUT MUCH
RESERVATION THE REGIMES FOREIGN POLICIES AND RESENTS THE
WEST BUT BECOMES ANGRY AND CRITICAL OF THE REGIME AS SOON AS
THE TALK TURNS TO INTERNAL ISSUES, SEIF SAID. REGIME FIGURES
REMAIN NERVOUS ABOUT THE PROPOSED SPECIAL LEBANON TRIBUNAL
BEING SET UP TO TRY THOSE CHARGED WITH THE ASSASSINATION OF
FORMER LEBANESE PM HARIRI, SEIF SAID. FOOTAGE OF SADDAM
HUSSEIN'S EXECUTION HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SUNNI UNEASE ABOUT
ASCENDANT SHIITE AND IRANIAN POWER IN IRAQ AND WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE REGIME IN THE COMING WEEKS TO MOVE TOWARD A MORE
NEUTRAL STANCE TOWARD IRAQ, ASSERTED SEIF WHO IS SUNNI. SEIF
INDICATED THAT USG STATEMENTS ABOUT SYRIA ARE MOST EFFECTIVE
WHEN HIGHLIGHTING FLAWED SARG INTERNAL POLICIES. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY IN ELECTIONS: THE EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE OF THE DAMASCUS DECLARATION GROUP (DD),WHICH WAS
FORMED MORE THAN A YEAR AGO AND INCLUDES A RANGE OF
GOVERNMENT CRITICS, DECIDED AT ITS JANUARY 6 MEETING THAT THE
GROUP WOULD FIELD CANDIDATES FOR THE APRIL PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS, ACCORDING TO SEIF, THE COMMITTEE HEAD, IN A
JANUARY 9 MEETING WITH A/DCM AND POLOFF. CANDIDATES FROM
ACROSS SYRIA WILL REGISTER AS INDEPENDENTS AND WILL ONLY
LATER DECLARE THEMSELVES AS PART OF A DD SLATE. ALTHOUGH THE
DD COMMITTEE DID NOT EXPECT MANY OF ITS CANDIDATES TO WIN,
THEY WANT TO CAPITALIZE ON THE REGIME'S DESIRE TO PROMOTE
ITSELF INTERNATIONALLY AS ALLOWING A MODICUM OF POLITICAL
FREEDOM. "IF THEY GIVE US THIS SPACE, WE HAVE TO USE IT TO
THE MAXIMUM," SAID SEIF, WHO NOTED THAT HIS FELONY CONVICTION
ON TRUMPED-UP POLITICAL GROUNDS IN 2001 PREVENTED HIM FROM
RUNNING. (NOTE: SEIF'S DAUGHTER, JOUMANA, ARRIVED LATER IN
THE CONVERSATION AND WAS TAKEN ABACK WHEN HER FATHER
SUGGESTED SHE COULD RUN FOR OFFICE IN HIS STEAD. JOUMANA,
WHO ASSISTS HER FATHER IN HIS POLITICAL ORGANIZING AND WHO
LOBBIED ON HIS BEHALF DURING HIS YEARS IN PRISON, IS IN THE
PROCESS OF FINAL EXAMS TO BECOME A LAWYER. END NOTE.)


3. (C) THE DD WAS STILL WORKING OUT THE LOGISTICS OF
FIELDING CANDIDATES, INCLUDING HOW IT WOULD RAISE CAMPAIGN
FUNDS, SEIF SAID. WHEN HE RAN FOR OFFICE IN 1998, HE SPENT
USD 150,000 ON CAMPAIGN POSTERS AND STIPENDS FOR TWO OR THREE
ELECTION MONITORS IN FLUORESCENT "FRIENDS OF RIAD SEIF
T-SHIRTS" AT EACH OF SYRIA'S APPROXIMATE 250 VOTING CENTERS,
SEIF SAID. DD CANDIDATES WILL USE THEIR CAMPAIGN TO LINK FOR
VOTERS REGIME BEHAVIOR WITH RISING DOMESTIC WOES SUCH AS
CORRUPTION AND INFLATION, HE SAID. THE AVERAGE SYRIAN
ARDENTLY AGREES WITH THE REGIME'S FOREIGN POLICIES,
PARTICULARLY ITS SUPPORT FOR HIZBALLAH AND HAMAS, AND RESENTS
THE U.S. AND THE WEST FOR PERCEIVED ANTI-ARAB, ANTI-ISLAMIC
POLICIES, SEIF SAID. THE SAME SYRIAN, HOWEVER, BECOMES ANGRY
AND CRITICAL OF THE REGIME AS SOON AS THE TALK TURNS TO
INTERNAL ISSUES SUCH AS INFLATION, PRICE HIKES, MONOPOLIES,
AND CORRUPTION, SEIF SAID. "OUR JOB WILL BE TO TELL THE
PEOPLE THAT THE LONGER THE REGIME STAYS, THE BIGGER OUR
PROBLEMS," SEIF STATED. HE ALSO ASSERTED, IN A REFRAIN WE
HAVE HEARD FROM OTHERS IN THE OPPOSITION, THAT U.S.
STATEMENTS ABOUT SYRIA ARE MOST EFFECTIVE WHEN HIGHLIGHTING
FLAWED SARG INTERNAL POLICIES, VERSUS A STRICT FOCUS ON THE
REGIME'S FOREIGN POLICIES.


4. (C) DAMASCUS DECLARATION ACTIVITIES: DD MEMBERS HOPED
THAT ELECTIONS WOULD BROADEN THEIR GROUP'S BASE, WHICH
REMAINS LIMITED TO A SMALL URBAN ELITE, SEIF SAID. DD
MEMBERS ARE SEEKING TO DOUBLE THEIR EXECUTIVE COUNCIL, WHICH
STANDS AT APPROXIMATELY 30 MEMBERS, SEIF SAID. IN MARCH, THE
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WOULD ELECT A NEW CHAIRPERSON, SAID SEIF,
NOTING THAT HE WOULD DECLINE TO SEEK A SECOND TERM SO AS TO
HAVE MORE FREEDOM TO EXPRESS HIS VIEWS AS A POLITICAL LEADER
RATHER THAN AS A CHAIRMAN SEEKING CONSENSUS.


5. (C) SYRIA-LEBANON: SEIF ARGUED, AS HE HAS IN THE PAST,
THAT THE REGIME REMAINS ISOLATED AND THAT REGIME FIGURES ARE
NERVOUS ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL TO TRY THOSE CHARGED IN CONNECTION
WITH THE ASSASSINATION OF FORMER LEBANESE PM RAFIK HARIRI AND
OTHERS. THE TRIBUNAL REMAINS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE
REGIME, AS IT KNOWS THAT ANY SYRIAN FIGURE HANDED OVER FOR
TRIAL, IF HIS FAMILY WERE PROTECTED, WOULD REVEAL EVERYTHING
THAT HE KNEW ABOUT SYRIAN INVOLVEMENT IN THE ASSASSINATION,


SEIF SAID. UNLIKE IDEOLOGICALLY-DRIVEN HIZBALLAH MEMBERS, IN
SYRIA, THE REGIME IS RUN BY OPPORTUNISTS WHO ONLY LOOK OUT
FOR THEIR OWN INTERESTS, SEIF STATED. LATE IN 2006, REGIME
FIGURES WERE BUOYED BY VISITS FROM EUROPEAN OFFICIALS AND
U.S. CONGRESSMEN, BUT THEY WERE DISAPPOINTED BY
INTERLOCUTORS' INSISTENCE THAT SYRIA MUST CEASE INTERFERENCE
IN LEBANON, SEIF ASSERTED. SYRIANS WERE CLOSELY WATCHING
DEVELOPMENTS IN LEBANON AND FEARED THAT IF THE SINIORA
GOVERNMENT FELL THERE WOULD BE NO WAY TO GET A NEW
GOVERNMENT, LEAVING A VACUUM IN ITS WAKE, SEIF CLAIMED.


6. (C) SYRIA-IRAQ: TELEVISED FOOTAGE OF SECTARIAN TAUNTING
DURING SADDAM HUSSEIN'S EXECUTION HAS PUT THE SARG IN A
DIFFICULT POSITION IN ITS DEALINGS WITH IRAQ BY HIGHLIGHTING
THE SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE AND THE RISING REGIONAL INFLUENCE OF
PREDOMINATELY-SHIA IRAN, SEIF ASSERTED. SARG OFFICIALS WOULD
SEEK FOR THE TIME BEING TO ASSUME A NEUTRAL STANCE TOWARD
IRAQ BECAUSE TO ACT PRO-SUNNI WOULD GO AGAINST THE REGIME'S
RELATIONSHIP WITH PRO-SHIA IRAN, BUT TO ACT PRO-SHIA WOULD
AGGRAVATE SYRIA'S SUNNI MAJORITY, WHICH IS UNEASY ABOUT THE
MINORITY ALAWITE REGIME'S COZY RELATIONSHIP WITH IRAN, SAID
SEIF WHO IS SUNNI. (NOTE: THIS UNEASE HAS FED PARANOID AND
TO DATE, UNCONFIRMED RUMORS ABOUT IRANIAN EFFORTS TO CONVERT
POOR SYRIAN SUNNIS TO SHIISM. END NOTE.)


7. (C) COMMENT: IN DEALING WITH THE SARG, SEIF CONSISTENTLY
SEEKS WAYS TO FORCE THE REGIME TO CHOOSE BETWEEN DIFFICULT
OPTIONS. THE DD IS FOLLOWING THIS APPROACH BY CHOOSING TO
FIELD CANDIDATES IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, BELIEVING
THE SARG WILL WANT TO BALANCE ITS CONTROL ON GOVERNMENT
CRITICS WITH A DESIRE TO DEMONSTRATE INTERNATIONALLY ITS
CAPABILITY FOR POLITICAL REFORM AND A DEGREE OF POLITICAL
OPENNESS. THIS IS A RISKY COURSE OF ACTION FOR THE GROUP,
WHICH HAS LARGELY FOCUSED ON INTERNAL ACTIVITIES, BUT MAY BE
IN PART DUE TO SEIF'S GROWING FRUSTRATION OVER HIS OWN
SELF-PERCEIVED INACTION POLITICALLY. AT ONE POINT IN THE
CONVERSATION, SEIF NOTED THAT HE WAS GOING THROUGH A
DIFFICULT PERIOD OF SELF-EXAMINATION ABOUT WHETHER TO RETURN
TO BUSINESS OR TAKE A BOLDER STANCE AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT
(WHICH COULD MEAN A RETURN TO PRISON). FOR THE TIME BEING,
HE SEEMED TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE MORE RISKY STANCE OF
CONFRONTING THE REGIME.


8. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: SEIF AND THE DD'S APPROACH TO THE
UPCOMING ELECTIONS CONTRASTS RATHER STARKLY WITH THE MORE
SKEPTICAL VIEW VOICED BY FELLOW DD AND OPPOSITION MEMBER RIAD
TURK (REPORTED REFTEL),WHICH DISMISSED THE UTILITY OF
PARTICIPATING IN THE ELECTIONS, SEEING IT AS TRYING TO PLAY A
GAME WHEN THE REGIME HAS STACKED THE RULES COMPLETELY AND
BOUGHT OFF THE REFEREES. A KEY QUESTION REMAINS TO WHAT
EXTENT BASHAR WILL SEEK TO USE THE ELECTIONS TO BURNISH HIS
IMAGE BOTH DOMESTICALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY AS A "REFORMER."
THE YET-TO-BE ADOPTED ELECTION REFORM MAY BE THE FIRST
INDICATION OF HOW BASHAR INTENDS TO PLAY THE ELECTIONS.
CORBIN