SENIOR SYRIAN DISSIDENT ON THE OPPOSITION, THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000517

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL SY LE
SUBJECT: SENIOR SYRIAN DISSIDENT ON THE OPPOSITION, THE
SITUATION IN LEBANON

REF: DAMASCUS 0500

CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MICHAEL CORBIN, PER 1.4 B,D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: SENIOR OPPOSITION FIGURE RIAD TURK TOLD
A/DCM MAY 22 THAT HE REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE OPPOSITION
IN SYRIA, DESPITE ITS CURRENT WEAKNESS. WHILE CRITICAL OF
SOME OF THE TACTICAL DECISIONS AND CAUTION OF FELLOW
DISSIDENT RIAD SEIF (PARTICULAR REGARDING CALLS TO BOYCOTT
THE PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM) , TURK IS LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SEIFS EFFORTS AND SEES HIM AS A UNITING FIGURE THAT CAN
EXPAND THE SIZE OF THE OPPOSITION IN SYRIA. TURK CALLED FOR
SUSTAINED INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON THE ASAD REGIME TO FREE
SYRIAN POLITICAL PRISONERS SUCH AS KAMAL LABWANI AND MICHEL
KILO. TURK ASSESSED THAT THE ASAD REGIME REMAINS FEARFUL
ABOUT THE LEBANON TRIBUNAL, A REALITY THAT EXPLAINS THE
SUDDEN EMERGENCE OF FATAH AL-ISLAM, WHOSE MEMBERS TURK
DESCRIBED AS "AGENTS OF THE SYRIAN REGIME." HE DISMISSED THE
PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM AS A SHAM DESIGNED TO SEND THE
MESSAGE TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY THAT BASHAR IS LOVED
BY HIS PEOPLE. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) OPTIMISM DESPITE OPPOSITION'S WEAKNESS: SENIOR
DISSIDENT RIAD TURK TOLD A/DCM MAY 22 THAT HE REMAINS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE STATE OF THE OPPOSITION IN SYRIA,
DESPITE WHAT HE ACKNOWLEDGED AS ITS WEAKNESSES AND BASHAR
AL-ASAD'S THEN IMMINENT RE-ELECTION TO A SECOND SEVEN-YEAR
TERM AS PRESIDENT. IN HIS VIEW CHANGE COULD COME AS SUDDENLY
HERE IN SYRIA AS IT DID IN EASTERN EUROPE WHEN THE SOVIET
EMPIRE BEGAN TO WEAKEN OR IN LEBANON AFTER THE ASSASSINATION
OF RAFIK HARIRI, WHEN SYRIAN TROOPS WERE WITHDRAWN IN A
MATTER OF MONTHS. IN THOSE PLACES ALSO, THE OPPOSITION HAD
BEEN WEAK, TURK NOTED, BUT BIG CHANGES HAD TAKEN PLACE. TURK
UNDERLINED THAT THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION NEEDED SUPPORT AND
EXPRESSIONS OF SOLIDARITY FROM THE U.S., EUROPE, AND "THE
ARABS."


3. (C) TAKING RIAD SEIF'S MEASURE: TURK AND FELLOW FORMER
POLITICAL PRISONER AMIN MARDINI (WHO SAT IN ON THE MEETING
WITH A/DCM) DESCRIBED AS OVERLY CAUTIOUS SOME OF THE STANDS
OF FELLOW DISSIDENT RIAD SEIF, SUCH AS THE DAMASCUS
DECLARATION GROUP'S DECISION TO "BOYCOTT THE PRESIDENTIAL
REFERENDUM" BUT NOT TO CALL FOR A GENERAL VOTING BOYCOTT BY
SYRIAN CITIZENS (THE POSITION ADOPTED BY TURK AND THE SMALL
WING OF THE SYRIAN COMMUNIST PARTY HE LEADS). HOWEVER TURK
ACKNOWLEDGED SEIF'S IMPORTANCE TO THE OPPOSITION AND
RECOGNIZED SEIF'S LEADERSHIP OF THE DAMASCUS DECLARATION (DD)
GROUP AS CENTRAL TO THE FUTURE OF THE OPPOSITION IN SYRIA.


4. (C) SEIF HAD THE POTENTIAL TO ATTRACT SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS
OF NEW MEMBERS INTO THE OPPOSITION, PEOPLE WITH LOCAL CLOUT
OR PROMINENCE IN TRIBES, ETHNIC GROUPS, OR MINORITIES, AS HE
WAS DOING WITH HIS EFFORTS TO EXPAND THE DD GROUP INTO A
NATIONAL CONGRESS, RANGING FROM LIBERALS TO MODERATE
ISLAMISTS, INSISTED TURK. HE EXPLAINED THAT SEIF'S CAUTION
IS LARGELY A RESULT OF THE IDEOLOGICAL CROSS-CURRENTS HE IS
NAVIGATING INSIDE THE DIVERSE DD GROUP, WHICH INCLUDES
PAN-ARAB NASSERISTS, LEFTISTS, MODERATE ISLAMISTS AND KURDS,
AMONG OTHERS. FEAR OF REGIME REPRISALS AGAINST DD MEMBERS
HAS ALSO COMPELLED SEIF TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT ABOUT THE
GROUP'S PUBLIC STANDS TO SOME DEGREE, NOTED TURK AND MARDINI.


5. (C) CALLS FOR PRESSURE ON REGIME TO RELEASE PRISONERS:
TURK CALLED FOR SUSTAINED INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON THE ASAD
REGIME TO FREE SYRIAN POLITICAL PRISONERS SUCH AS KAMAL
LABWANI AND MICHEL KILO. WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT SUCH
PRESSURE WOULD NOT LEAD TO IMMEDIATE RESULTS, IT COULD AT
LEAST HELP PREVENT WORSE REPRESSION IN THE SHORT TERM, AND
COULD YIELD RESULTS LATER ON. TURK INSISTED THAT A
THREE-YEAR PRISON TERM METED OUT TO HIM IN 2001 HAD BEEN CUT
IN HALF BECAUSE OF INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE FRENCH. AMONG OTHER ACTIONS, TURK CALLED FOR BRINGING
SYRIA BEFORE THE UN HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS. TURK ALSO DESCRIBED HIMSELF AS AN ADVOCATE OF
CONTINUOUS PUBLIC PRESSURE ON THE SARG, INSISTING THAT IT
ONLY RESPONDED TO SUSTAINED, CONVINCING PRESSURE. HE
DESCRIBED HIMSELF AS SATISFIED WITH RECENT USG STATEMENTS ON
THE HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION IN SYRIA, BUT RE-EMPHASIZED THAT
SUCH PRESSURE MUST BE SUSTAINED AND CONTINUOUS.


6. (C) ASSESSING REGIME FEARS OVER TRIBUNAL: TURK ASSESSED
THAT THE ASAD REGIME REMAINS FEARFUL ABOUT THE LEBANON
TRIBUNAL AND WARY ABOUT THE EVIDENCE THAT UNIIIC INVESTIGATOR
SERGE BRAMMERTZ HAS AMASSED. THE REGIME "WANTS A DEAL" WITH


KEY PARTIES -- THE UN, THE U.S., THE FRENCH, AND THE SAUDIS
-- THAT WILL ALLOW KEY REGIME FIGURES TO "AVOID THE WORST
CONSEQUENCES" OF THE TRIBUNAL. THEY DO NOT WANT ANY SYRIAN
SUMMONED ABROAD FOR QUESTIONING OR TRIAL, FEARING REVELATIONS
THAT MIGHT BE MADE, SAID TURK. TURK SAID THESE FEARS HELP
EXPLAIN WHAT HE VIEWED AS THE SYRIA-ENGINEERED CRISIS IN
LEBANON, AND THE SUDDEN ERUPTION OF FIGHTING BY FATAH
AL-ISLAM, WHOSE MEMBERS TURK DESCRIBED AS "AGENTS OF THE
SYRIAN REGIME" IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. (TURKS COMMENTS ON
FATAH AL-ISLAM REPORTED REFTEL.) IN ADVANCE OF THE HIGHLY
PUBLICIZED WEEKEND AIRLIFT OF U.S. AMMUNITION AND EQUIPMENT
TO THE LEBANESE ARMY, TURK CALLED FOR STEADY, VIGOROUS
INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR LEBANON, THE LEBANESE ARMY, AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF SINIORA AS THEY CONFRONTED "THESE TERRORISTS"
FROM FATAH AL-ISLAM. AT THE SAME TIME, TURK CALLED FOR THE
U.S. TO STOP THE BOYCOTT OF THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY AND
(SPEAKING BEFORE A QASSAM ROCKET KILLED AN ISRAELI CITIZEN IN
SDEROT MAY 27) TO PRESSURE ISRAEL TO STOP THE MILITARY
CAMPAIGN AGAINST GAZA. BOTH ACTIONS WOULD SHORE UP THE
SINIORA GOVERNMENT AS IT MOVED TOWARDS CONFRONTING FATAH
AL-ISLAM, SAID TURK.


7. (C) SPEAKING DAYS BEFORE THE VOTING IN THE PRESIDENTIAL
REFERENDUM, TURK DISMISSED THE EXERCISE AS A PRIMITIVE,
ANTI-DEMOCRATIC SHAM DESIGNED TO SEND THE MESSAGE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY THAT BASHAR IS LOVED BY HIS PEOPLE.




CORBIN