BASHAR GETS HIS SECOND SEVEN-YEAR TERM IN HOLLOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 000515

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: BASHAR GETS HIS SECOND SEVEN-YEAR TERM IN HOLLOW

REFERENDUM

Classified By: A/DCM William Roebuck, for reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: Official Syrian poll results announced May
29 indicated that 97.62 percent of the Syrian voters (or
almost 11.2 million persons) who cast a ballot had approved a
second seven-year term for Syrian President Bashar al-Asad.
Significantly stepped-up pressure on people to vote in the
referendum likely inflated the turnout above that witnessed
in the parliamentary elections, but to nowhere near the
officially reported turnout level of 95 percent of voters.)
The People's Assembly is expected to hold a session later in
the evening on May 29 to accept the referendum results. No
official announcement has been made about the President's
inauguration, which is expected to occur around the same time
that his first term expires on July 16. Opposition leader
Riad Seif expected a further crackdown on the internal
opposition in the post-referendum period, particularly given
the threat posed by the expected formation of an
international tribunal in connection with the assassination
of former Lebanese PM Rafik al-Hariri. Foreign diplomats
resident in Damascus who informally monitored polling noted a
number of procedural problems but did not expect that their
governments would issue a statement critical of the
referendum. End Summary.


2. (C) RESULTS: Syria's Minister of Interior announced at a
May 29 press conference that 97.62 percent of Syrian voters
(or almost 11.2 million persons) who cast a ballot had
approved a second seven-year term for Syrian President Bashar
al-Asad during the May 27 referendum held in Syria and at
overseas embassies and consulates. As for official turnout
figures, the Minister reported that more than 95.86 percent
of all eligible Syrian voters inside and out of Syria (or
almost 11.5 million persons) cast their ballots. (Comment:
Anecdotal reporting indicates significantly lower turnout
than that official estimate. Emboffs and FSN's who observed
voting at a limited number of polling stations reported
voting activity at levels that did not appear perceptibly
higher than those witnessed during the recent parliamentary
elections. Unofficial estimates of turnout in the
parliamentary elections ranged from less than 10 percent to
about 30 percent of eligible voters. Significantly
stepped-up pressure on people to vote in the referendum
likely inflated the turnout above that witnessed in the
parliamentary elections, but to nowhere near the officially
reported turnout level.)


3. (C) According to the Minister of Interior, some 19,500
people voted against Asad. (Comment: Given the police-state
nature of the regime, and the lack of any safeguards for
secret ballots, we question whether even a fraction of such

SIPDIS
brave -- but foolhardy -- souls would dare thumb their noses
at the regime with such a gesture.) The number of voided
ballots (more than 253,000) greatly outnumbered the number of
persons who voted "no" on the referendum, according to
figures provided by the Minister.


4. (SBU) WHAT'S NEXT: The People's Assembly is expected to
hold a session later in the evening on May 29 to accept the
referendum results. A festival in Damascus celebrating the
President's victory has been announced for June 1 along a
several mile stretch of a main Damascus thoroughfare. No
official announcement has been made about the President's
inauguration, which is expected to occur around the same time
that his first term expires on July 16. When asked at the
press conference about a rumored Cabinet change, the Minister
of Interior responded that that decision remained the
prerogative of the president but that Cabinet changes often
follow presidential referendums. When asked about the
possibility of a presidential amnesty, the Minister merely
responded that that issue was for the President to decide.
Opposition leader Riad Seif, however, downplayed the
possibility of an amnesty in a May 29 conversation with
A/DCM, saying he believes Asad will crack down harder on the
domestic opposition in the coming period, particularly given
the threat posed by the expected formation of an
international tribunal in connection with the assassination
of former Lebanese PM Rafik al-Hariri.


5. (C) ASSESSING THE REFERENDUM: At the same time that the
Minister was announcing the referendum results, POLOFF was
hosting a post-referendum coffee with diplomats to exchange
insights gathered during unofficial monitoring of the
referendum. A number of diplomats had visited polling places

DAMASCUS 00000515 002 OF 002


in Damascus, while Canada and the U.S. visited urban centers
outside the capital. Observations included the following:

-- Most polling places did not provide a private place for
marking the ballot. In line with some of the more
outrageously flattering banners praising Asad's wisdom and
leadership, some polling places provided -- we're not kidding
-- needles and antiseptic for those Syrians seeking to mark
their ballot in blood.
-- Syrians, seeking to vote, could present any form of
identification (including one person was witnessed using a
business card).
-- Polling officials sometimes cross-checked voter names on a
register of district residents, but Syrians seeking to vote
in districts outside their own were permitted to do so.
-- Voters' names were sometimes, but not always, registered
by hand in a log, along with their identification number.
Polling officials in the central Syrian cities of Hama and
Homs told one foreign diplomat that this information would be
entered into a computer and cross checked to ensure that a
voter was not allowed to vote in more than one location. If
a voter were to be found to have voted more than once, his
ballots would be annulled, according to the polling official
who did not explain how the voter's choice would be known to
officials. (Comment: It is our assessment that this
"safeguard" was not implemented in a way that would
discourage multiple voting; in fact multiple voting was
almost certainly encouraged, as it inflated turnout, a key
preoccupation for the regime.)
-- Voter cards were not stamped at most polling places.
-- There were numerous anecdotal and first-person reports of
Syrians (including one child) casting ballots for other
voters, merely presenting a form of that person's
identification. One Embassy FSN witnessed a man casting
ballots for six other persons.
-- There was one report of a police officer examining a
voter's ballot before it was cast.
-- Campaign material was present in all of the polling
stations visited, with polling officials sometimes in charge
of supervising balloting and overseeing pro-Bashar music.
-- One diplomat also noted that several business contacts
critical of the regime had voted for the President, for fear
that security officials might somehow find out that they had
failed to vote or had voted "no," ruining their prospects of
future business contracts.


6. (SBU) None of the diplomats from countries including
France, Germany, the UK, Sweden, and Canada expected their
governments to issue statements critical of the referendum.


7. (C) COMMENT: It is still a bit early to get a credible
range of soundings on the actual turnout. The regime
obviously went to a great deal of expense and effort to
communicate to voters the importance it attached to seeing
Bashar extended for another seven years in office. But while
the Minister of Interior took an extra day to announce
official results, perhaps as regime officials debated about
how much they wanted to inflate the actual turnout figures,
we assess that the regime did not fully succeed in its "get
out the vote" campaign. Despite all the forced-grin hoopla
and the multitude of "Bashar, We Love You" banners hanging
from every conceivable pole and filling every billboard
space, and the rumor campaign, aimed at frightening people to
go vote or face consequences, there seemed to be very little
excitement on voting day. There was also lots of quiet
resentment at the vapid slogans -- drained of any political
content or plan for the future -- and the incredible waste of
money that has gone into the two-week exercise. We will get
a better sense in the coming days whether there is any
lingering (private) regime disappointment at the real turnout
or whether, as is more likely, the cynicism of the entire
enterprise allows the regime simply to move on and be content
that Asad is safely ensconced in power for another seven
years.
CORBIN