SYRIAN ELECTIONS: JOCKEYING AND BACKSTABBING START

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000317

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WALLER; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: SYRIAN ELECTIONS: JOCKEYING AND BACKSTABBING START
A BIT EARLY THIS CAMPAIGN

CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MICHAEL CORBIN, PER 1.4 B,D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN IN
DAMASCUS HAS GOTTEN MORE HEATED AND UGLY THAN EXPECTED THIS
SPRING, WITH THE ELECTRONIC MEDIA BEING USED TO PUBLISH
SCURRILOUS ATTACKS TO WEAKEN THE CANDIDACIES OF A KEY
INDEPENDENTS LIST. ON MARCH 29, THE PRESSURE AGAINST THE
LIST TOOK ON A MORE OFFICIAL COLORING WHEN THE OFFICE OF THE
DAMASCUS GOVERNOR, WHICH IS CHARGED WITH OFFICIALLY VETTING
ALL CANDIDATES WHO WANT TO RUN FOR PARLIAMENT (IN THE
DAMASCUS AREA) ISSUED AN ORDER CANCELING ITS PREVIOUS
AUTHORIZATION FOR ADNAN SHAMA'A, ONE OF THE THREE
INDEPENDENTS ON THE LIST UNDER ATTACK, TO RUN FOR OFFICE.
SHAMA'A TOLD US HE IS APPEALING THE ORDER IN THE COURTS AND
EXPECTS TO HAVE A RULING IN HIS FAVOR WITHIN DAYS. THE OTHER
TWO CANDIDATES ON THE LIST, IHSAN SANKAR AND BASIL DAHDOUH
TOLD A/DCM MARCH 26 THAT THEY WERE ALSO FEELING PRESSURE
ABOUT THEIR DECISION TO RUN. THE JOCKEYING AND BACKSTABBING
AMONG THESE INDEPENDENTS, MANY OF THEM WEALTHY BUSINESSMEN OR
PROFESSIONALS, IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
DURING PREVIOUS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, WHERE RIGOROUS SARG
CONTROL PREVENTS ANY SUBSTANTIVE CAMPAIGNING ON ISSUES VOTERS
MIGHT CARE ABOUT, BEYOND THE CHARACTERS AND REPUTATIONS OF
THOSE RUNNING. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN IN DAMASCUS HAS
CONFOUNDED EARLY EXPECTATIONS AND TURNED (BY SYRIAN
STANDARDS) QUITE NASTY. THE INDEPENDENTS LIST RECEIVING ALL
THE ATTENTION -- AND ON THE RECEIVING END OF THE SCURRILOUS
ATTACKS IN THE LOCAL ELECTRONIC MEDIA -- INCLUDES BUSINESSMAN
IHSAN SANKAR, A FORMER MP WHO DECIDED NOT TO RUN FOR
RE-ELECTION IN 1998. IT ALSO INCLUDES ADNAN SHAMA'A, A
BUSINESSMAN AS WELL AND A PREVIOUSLY UNSUCCESSFUL CANDIDATE
FOR PARLIAMENT, AND BASIL DAHDOUH, A CURRENT MP AND ONE OF
THE MOST WELL-KNOWN CHRISTIAN POLITICIANS IN DAMASCUS.
(NOTE: SANKAR AND SHAMA'A ARE SUNNIS.) THE "WAR" STARTED IN
MID-MARCH WITH A STORY PUBLISHED IN CHAMPRESS, AN INTERNET
NEWS SERVICE IN SYRIA, ACCUSING SHAMA'A OF HAVING A CRIMINAL
RECORD WHICH WOULD BAR HIM FROM RUNNING IN THE ELECTION OR
SERVING AS AN MP. (THAT SITE IS OWNED BY A BUSINESS ALLY OF
MOHAMMED HAMSHO, A PROMINENT INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE IN
DAMASCUS AND AN EXTREMELY WEALTHY BUSINESSMAN/FIXER ALLIED
WITH REGIME INSIDERS OVER THE YEARS, INCLUDING MAHER AL-ASAD,
THE PRESIDENT'S BROTHER.)


3. (C) SHAMAA FOUGHT BACK, GETTING HIS VERSION OF THE FACTS
ON THE RECORD IN ELAPH, ANOTHER ELECTRONIC NEWS SITE POPULAR
IN SYRIA. WHILE THE STORY IS COMPLICATED, THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT SHAMA'A HAS NOT BEEN CONVICTED OF ANY CRIME. HE BEGAN A
CAMPAIGN FOR PARLIAMENT IN 1998 AND THE REGIME FORCED HIM OUT
OF THE RACE, ACTUALLY IMPRISONING HIM FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS
WITHOUT TRIAL, BASED ON TRUMPED UP CHARGES ABOUT A FIGHT HE
HAD HAD IN GREAT BRITAIN 20 YEARS EARLIER.


4. (C) SEVERAL DAYS LATER CHAMPRESS PUBLISHED A STORY HIGHLY
CRITICAL OF SANKER, ACCUSING HIM OF NOT PAYING HIS WORKERS
AND OF BEING MORE LOYAL TO "FOREIGN EMBASSIES" ("ESPECIALLY
THE AMERICAN EMBASSY") THAN TO SYRIA. SO FAR SANKAR HAS NOT
RESPONDED USING THE ELECTRONIC MEDIA. ON MARCH 29, THE
PRESSURE AGAINST THE LIST TOOK ON A MORE OFFICIAL COLORING
WHEN THE OFFICE OF THE DAMASCUS GOVERNOR, WHICH IS CHARGED
WITH OFFICIALLY VETTING ALL CANDIDATES WHO WANT TO RUN FOR
PARLIAMENT (IN THE DAMASCUS AREA) ISSUED AN ORDER CANCELING
ITS PREVIOUS AUTHORIZATION FOR SHAMAA TO RUN FOR OFFICE.
SHAMAA TOLD US HE IS APPEALING THE ORDER IN THE COURTS AND
EXPECTS TO HAVE A RULING IN HIS FAVOR WITHIN DAYS.


5. (C) SANKAR AND DAHDOUH TOLD A/DCM IN SEPARATE MEETINGS
MARCH 26 THEY WERE UNSURE WHETHER THE ATTACKS AGAINST THEIR
LIST HAS BEEN COMPLETELY DIRECTED BY THE REGIME OR WERE PART
OF A FIGHT AMONG CANDIDATES (AND THEIR BACKERS, SOME OF THEM
REGIME INSIDERS). ALL THREE CANDIDATES, LIKE ALL OTHERS
SEEKING TO RUN FOR PARLIAMENT, HAD BEEN INTENSIVELY VETTED
AND CLEARED BY THE SYRIAN SECURITY SERVICES. "SMI, PSD, AND
STATE SECURITY ALL PAID VISITS TO MY OFFICE," NOTED SANKAR,
WHO SHOWED A/DCM THE ORIGINAL LETTER HE HAD RECEIVED FROM THE
GOVERNOR OF DAMASCUS, NOMINALLY IN CHARGE OF THE VETTING
PROCESS, BLESSING HIS CANDIDATURE. THE ATMOSPHERE TURNED
UGLY, HOWEVER, WHEN THE THREE INDEPENDENTS BANDED TOGETHER TO
FORM A LIST FOR DAMASCUS, IN EFFECT CHALLENGING THE PRESTIGE
OF THE TWO OTHER MAJOR INDEPENDENTS LISTS, BOTH BLESSED BY
THE REGIME.


6. (C) SANKAR ACCUSED REGIME INSIDER AND WEALTHY BUSINESSMAN
RAMI MAKHLOUF OF ORCHESTRATING THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST HIM AND
HIS RUNNING MATES, EXPLAINING THAT MAKHLOUF HAD MAINTAINED A
VENDETTA AGAINST HIM EVER SINCE HE HAD UNSUCCESSFULLY
TARGETED SEVERAL YEARS AGO ONE OF THE SANKAR FAMILY'S MOST
LUCRATIVE VENTURES, THE MERCEDES BENZ DEALERSHIP FOR SYRIA.
ACCORDING TO SANKAR, IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER
MAKHLOUF IS FREE-LANCING, WITH THE LIMITED SUPPORT OF SOME IN
THE SECURITY SERVICES, OR OPERATING WITH MORE VIGOROUS REGIME
BACKING. WHILE SANKAR HAS NOT MET WITH THE SECURITY SERVICES
(SINCE HE WAS VETTED),HE SAID THAT DAHDOUH HAS ANSWERED
INFORMAL SUMMONS AND MET REGULARLY WITH FOUAD NASSIF
(KHAIRBEK),THE HEAD OF STATE SECURITY. DAHDOUH REPORTED
THAT NASSIF HAD VISIBLY GRIMACED AND EXPRESSED DISTASTE WHEN
DAHDOUH MENTIONED THAT HE WAS RUNNING ON A LIST WITH SANKER,
SAID SANKAR.


7. (C) IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR SO FAR IF THE CAMPAIGN IS DESIGNED
TO FORCE THE THREE TO SPLIT UP AND RUN SEPARATELY OR IF IT IS
A PRELUDE TO EVEN MORE HEAVY-HANDED REGIME INTERVENTION
DESIGNED TO FORCE THEM OUT OF THE RACE ON THREAT OF
IMPRISONMENT, AS WAS DONE TO SHAMA'A IN 1998. THE PRESSURE
AGAINST THE THREE HAD SOME INITIAL EFFECT, REPORTED SANKAR,
BUT THEY HAVE ALL DECIDED TO TOUGH THINGS OUT.


8. (C) SANKAR SUSPECTS THAT THE REGIME IS CLOSELY WATCHING
THE PRESSURE BEING APPLIED -- BY MAKHLOUF AND PEOPLE IN THE
MEDIA AND SARG DOING HIS BIDDING -- AND ALLOWING EVENTS TO
UNFOLD. HE HAS PREPARED HIMSELF FOR ALL EVENTUALITIES,
INCLUDING POWERS OF ATTORNEY FOR ALL HIS BUSINESSES, IF HE IS
IMPRISONED. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE THREE HAVE DONE NOTHING
WRONG (AND THUS FAR SAID NOTHING THAT WOULD PROVOKE THE
REGIME),SANKAR EXPECTS IN THE END THAT THE REGIME WILL LEAVE
MAKHLOUF AND ASSOCIATES TO DO THEIR DIRTY WORK ALONE,
WATCHFUL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY SYRIA IS UNDER RIGHT
NOW. WITHOUT DIRECT REGIME SUPPORT, MAKHLOUF'S CAMPAIGN WILL
FAIL, SAID SANKAR, NOTING HIS POPULARITY AMONG KEY DAMASCENE
GROUPS, INCLUDING SUNNIS, CHRISTIANS, AND KURDS AND
BUSINESSMEN. (COMMENT: SHAMA'A MAY BE IN A MORE VULNERABLE
POSITION BECAUSE OF HIS PREVIOUS PROBLEMS IN RUNNING.)


9. (C) WHEN ASKED WHY HE HAD DECIDED TO RUN AGAIN FOR
PARLIAMENT AFTER HAVING WALKED AWAY IN 1998, BELIEVING THEN
THAT SYRIA WAS NOT READY FOR DEMOCRACY, SANKAR TOLD A/DCM
THAT HE VIEWED THE CURRENT SITUATION AS MUCH MORE PROMISING,
NOT BECAUSE THE REGIME WOULD CHANGE ON ITS OWN, BUT BECAUSE
THE REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SITUATIONS NOW WERE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR CHANGE TO COME IN SYRIA. HE NOTED AS AN
EXAMPLE THAT KING ABDULLAH OF SAUDI ARABIA WAS TAKING A VERY
DIFFERENT ATTITUDE TOWARDS SYRIA AND TOWARDS SAUDI ARABIA'S
ROLE IN THE REGION, THAN DID HIS LATE BROTHER KING FAHD, WHO
HAD BEEN MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE ASAD REGIME AND LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF AMERICAN POLITICAL INFLUENCE IN THE REGION.
SANKAR SAID IT IS IMPORTANT TO "BUILD BRIDGES TO THE SYRIAN
PEOPLE" FOR THE FUTURE AT THIS CRITICAL TIME, EVEN WITHOUT
IMPORTANT POLITICAL REFORMS IN PLACE SUCH AS A POLITICAL
PARTIES LAW THAT WOULD HAVE ALLOWED HIM TO CREATE HIS OWN
PARTY (SOMETHING HE HAS TALKED PRIVATELY OF DOING FOR 18
MONTHS).


10. (C) COMMENT: THE JOCKEYING AND BACKSTABBING AMONG THESE
INDEPENDENTS, MANY OF THEM WEALTHY BUSINESSMEN OR
PROFESSIONALS, IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
DURING PREVIOUS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, WHERE RIGOROUS SARG
CONTROL PREVENTS ANY SUBSTANTIVE CAMPAIGNING ON ISSUES VOTERS
MIGHT CARE ABOUT, BEYOND THE CHARACTERS AND REPUTATIONS OF
THOSE RUNNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN PREVIOUS
CAMPAIGNS, MUCH OF THIS BACKSTABBING WAS ORCHESTRATED BY THE
REGIME TO PREVENT CANDIDATES IT CONSIDERED LESS FRIENDLY OR
TOO INDEPENDENT FROM RUNNING OR WINNING. IN THE END THIS
DUST-UP BETWEEN THE CANDIDATES MAY NOT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.
THE RACE IS SO CONTROLLED AND THE REGIME IS SO NERVOUS IT IS
EXERTING HEAVIER EFFORTS THAN USUAL TO AVOID SURPRISES.
NONETHELESS, THE LITTLE WAR ON THE WEBSITES SHOWS IN
INTERESTING WAYS HOW SYRIA IS SLOWLY CHANGING, WITH NEW MEDIA
DEVELOPING, FOR EXAMPLE (ALTHOUGH FALLING UNDER THE SAME OLD
POLITICAL INFLUENCES). SANKAR IS ONE OF THE MORE SAVVY AND
POPULAR NON-REGIME-AFFILIATED POLITICIANS IN DAMASCUS. THE
REGIMES OF HAFEZ AL-ASAD AND SON BASHAR HAVE MAINTAINED A
WARY DISTANCE, SENDING EMISSARIES FROM TIME TO TIME BUT NEVER
SUCCEEDING IN GETTING SANKAR INTO AN EMBRACE THEY COULD USE
FOR THEIR BENEFIT AND TO HIS DETRIMENT. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH HIS CAMPAIGN AND PROBABLE RE-ENTRY INTO
PARLIAMENT, FOR WHAT IT WILL REVEAL ABOUT WHERE POLITICAL
EVENTS IN SYRIA COULD BE HEADED IN THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO.





11. (C) BIO NOTES: IHSAN SANKAR IS FROM A VERY PROMINENT
SUNNI BUSINESS FAMILY. HE SERVED IN PARLIAMENT PREVIOUSLY
FROM 1990 TO 1998. HE IS A PRACTICING MUSLIM BUT VERY
MODERATE IN HIS VIEWS AND HAS GOOD RELATIONS WITH MINORITY
SECTS IN SYRIA BECAUSE OF HIS TOLERANT VIEWS. HE WAS ONE OF
THE MOST INFLUENTIAL MP'S IN PARLIAMENT DURING HIS TWO TOURS,
PUSHING FOR ECONOMIC REFORMS. HE IS STRONGLY (BUT PRIVATELY)
ANTI-REGIME, DESPISES BASHAR AL-ASAD, AND HAS KEPT HIS
DISTANCE SINCE ASAD TOOK POWER, DESPITE INDIRECT MESSAGES
INVITING HIM FOR INFORMAL MEETINGS. HE HAS BUILT A STRONG
NETWORK OF FRIENDS AND SUPPORTERS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, AND
INTO DIVERSE ETHNIC AND SECTARIAN GROUPS. HE SEES HIMSELF
HAS A POTENTIAL BRIDGING FIGURE FROM AN ASAD ERA TO A
POST-ASAD ERA, BUT DOES NOT BELIEVE THE REGIME SHOULD BE
REMOVED BY OUTSIDE MILITARY FORCE. HE WAS EDUCATED IN
DAMASCUS AND THEN AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ALEPPO. HIS WIFE IS
HALF ALAWITE (HER MOTHER),WHICH HAS ALLOWED HIM TO CULTIVATE
BETTER RELATIONS IN THE ALAWITE COMMUNITY THAN MANY PROMINENT
SUNNIS. HE SPEAKS PASSABLE ENGLISH AND ARABIC.

12, (C) BIO NOTES: BASIL DAHDOUH IS ONE OF THE MOST
PROMINENT CHRISTIAN POLITICIANS IN DAMASCUS. HE IS A MEMBER
OF AN OFF-SHOOT OF THE SYRIAN SOCIALIST NATIONALIST PARTY AND
IS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF DEMOCRACY AS KEY POLITICAL REFORM
NEEDED IN SYRIA. DAHDOUH IS A MEDICAL DOCTOR BUT NO LONGER
PRACTICES. HE WAS EDUCATED IN DAMASCUS AND FRANCE, BUT DID A
BRIEF RESIDENCY IN THE U.S. YEARS AGO. HE SPEAKS ONLY FRENCH
AND ARABIC.


13. (C) BIO NOTES: ADNAN SAMA'A IS A WEALTHY SUNNI
BUSINESSMAN. HE WAS IMPRISONED FOR OVER TWO YEARS FROM 1998
TO 2000 TO PREVENT HIM FROM BEING ELECTED TO PARLIAMENT. HE
IS REPORTEDLY CLOSE TO FORMER MINISTER OF DEFENSE MUSTAFA
TLAS AND HIS SONS, MANAF AND FIRAS, ALTHOUGH THOSE
CONNECTIONS DID NOT KEEP HIM OUT OF PRISON. MOST OF HIS
BUSINESS INVESTMENTS ARE LOCATED OUTSIDE SYRIA. HE DID HIS
UNIVERSITY IN THE UK, OBTAINED BRITISH CITIZENSHIP, AND IS
MARRIED TO A BRITISH WOMAN.

CORBIN