SARG ROUND UP OF DAMASCUS DECLARATION MEMBERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 001170 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA PARIS FOR JORDAN; LONDON FOR TSOU NSC FOR GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SY SUBJECT: SARG ROUND UP OF DAMASCUS DECLARATION MEMBERS REF: DAMASCUS 1156 Classified By: CDA Michael Corbin, for reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: Syrian security services detained some 36 Damascus Declaration National Council NC) members this week, eventually releasing all but three. Security services also disrupted an NC meeting at the home of National Council Secretariat Riad Seif on December 13, but there were no SIPDIS additional arrests. End Summary -------------- GID Detains 36, Releases 33 -------------- ¶2. In meetings with Poloffs and visiting NEA/MEPI Senior Advisor Owen Kirby, Damascus Declaration National Council members confirmed the arrest of some 36 Council members, 33 of whom appeared to have been released after questioning by GID officials. As of mid-day (local) December 13, three National Council members remained in detention: -- Akram al Bunni, Secretary of the NC Presidential Committee, a Christian liberal who spent 15 years in prison for his former affiliation with the Communist Action Party; -- Ahmad Tohmeh, member of the NC Secretariat, moderate Islamist, a dentist by training who worked as a human rights activist; -- Jabr al Shoufi, member of the NC Secretariat, Druze teacher and government critic from Suweida. ¶3. (C) On December 11, Riad Seif told Emboffs and Kirby that he believed the SARG had been surprised by the December 1 creation of the National Council and by the marginalization of the Syrian Arab Socialist Democratic Union Party and the Communist Action Party. He denounced the government's action, calling it a "stupid and clumsy" attempt to weaken the Syrian opposition. The round up would ultimately serve to call public attention to the new Council, Seif argued. ¶4. (C) At a lunch hosted by Charge the same day, National Council Members Walid al Bunni and Fawaz Tello and human rights lawyer Daad Mousa commented that civil society and human rights activists all over Syria were laying low out of fear that they could be next. Tello reminded us that he had predicted a government crackdown a week earlier in a conversation with Emboffs. Tello repeated his assessment that the Syrian government would likely detain lower profile National Council members to signal that it was in control. ¶5. (C) Tello said he himself had been questioned for three hours by GID officials earlier in the week, and they were most interested in why the Socialist Democratic Union Party and Communist Action Party had effectively been voted out of the National Council leadership. (Note: Both parties announced a freeze of their participation in the Damascus Declaration shortly after the National Council was created.) This line of questioning struck Tello as an indication of the SARG's concern about the lack of any internal influence by the Socialist Democratic Union Party within the Damascus Declaration. Tello said he had answered the GID's questions honestly and then sat for two more hours awaiting to learn his fate. The GID director returned to the interrogation room "happy" to inform him that GID Director Ali Mamluk had decided not to detain him any further. -------------- December 13 Stand Off at Seif's Home -------------- ¶6. (C) According to Embassy sources, security services attempted to disrupt a National Council meeting at the home of Riad Seif on the evening of December 12. After persuading the GID commander from entering his home, Seif negotiated with security services to allow the 12 attending NC members to leave the premises in groups of two without being arrested. -------------- Trying to Interpret SARG Behavior -------------- DAMASCUS 00001170 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Bunni and Mousa, noting that the SARG had cracked down harshly on the opposition community in the last two years, predicted that the SARG would become even tougher if relations improved between Syria and the U.S. The latest arrests of NC members, they opined, were consistent with existing policies toward opposition and human rights activists. The SARG no doubt saw the formation of the National Council as a provocation that could not be ignored. According to Bunni and Tello, the GID's questioning of Tello on the Socialist Democratic Union Party's role suggested the SARG's real concern was the not just the meeting of Damascus Declaration members to create of a National Council, but the possibility that it might actually move forward under the auspices of an overtly pro-Western leadership. ¶8. (C) Bunni, Tello, and Mousa, in addition to other human rights contacts, have drawn a parallel to the SARG reaction's after the Beirut-Damascus Declaration in May 2006, when the regime rounded up a large group of important human rights and opposition activists and released all but a handful. Ultimately, the government sentenced Michel Kilo and Mahmoud Issa to three years in jail, Anwar al Bunni to five years, and Suleman Shammar and Khalil Hussein to 10 years (in absentia). Bunni and others suggested that if the same pattern applies, we should expect prosecution of and stiff sentences for a few select National Council members as a warning to others of government redlines. (On the other hand, we are also hearing rumors from media contacts that the SARG will be releasing those still in detention.) ¶9. (C) Comment: Determining how the security services view the National Council and identifying SARG redlines remains an inexact science. Perhaps once content to tolerate a modicum of opposition activities by Damascus Declaration members so long as they remain stymied by internal dissent, the regime appears intent on disabling the newly formed National Council before it gains any momentum. Though the fate of the three detained NC members still remains uncertain, SARG behavior up to now suggests the possibility of their prosecution and continuing efforts by the security services to disrupt National Council meetings. CORBIN