Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07DAKAR437
2007-02-26 17:58:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dakar
Cable title:
SENEGAL: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP 3: WADE
how-toVZCZCXRO8024 PP RUEHMA RUEHPA DE RUEHDK #0437 0571758 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 261758Z FEB 07 FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7648 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS DAKAR 000437
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR S/ES-O, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP 3: WADE
WAITING FOR A DEFINITIVE 50 PERCENT
REF: A. DAKAR 0427
B. DAKAR 0426
UNCLAS DAKAR 000437
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR S/ES-O, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP 3: WADE
WAITING FOR A DEFINITIVE 50 PERCENT
REF: A. DAKAR 0427
B. DAKAR 0426
1. (SBU) President Abdoulaye Wade is leading the first round
presidential pack throughout the country and is ahead by
surprising margins (80 percent in Touba) and in unexpected
areas (Podor). The Government made an early claim that Wade
was winning 57 percent, but the opposition is brandishing
unofficial and partial vote tallies to claim Wade will finish
with 48 percent. Both sides are conducting a psychological
war designed to comfort supporters, demoralize rivals, and
influence first the National Vote Count Commission
(Commission Nationale de Recensement des Votes) and then the
Constitutional Council, which will determine official
results. Wade is ahead by a long distance, but it is not yet
clear that he has surpassed 50 percent need to avoid a second
round.
2. (SBU) With over 60 percent of the vote counted, turnout
appears to have been between 60 and 80 percent. Former Prime
Minister Idrissa Seck and Socialist Party leader Ousmane
Tanor Dieng and are in a tight race for second place with
percentages in the mid-teens. Moustapha Niasse, earlier
considered a contender, has apparently collapsed to single
digits. Ziguinchor Mayor Robert Sagna, who deserted the
Socialists to run an independent campaign, is suffering the
embarrassment of losing to Wade in the Casamance. None of
the other ten presidential candidates garnered significant
support.
3. (SBU) There was little or no violence in the election,
and the situation in the streets is calm but could depend on
how the vote count shapes up and how the Vote Count
Commission interprets results and calls the winner. The
public would have calmly accepted a clear result leading to a
second round. Alternatively, a clear Wade victory such as
the 57 percent claimed by the Prime Minister would have
discouraged even opposition diehards from taking to the
streets. If results are very close to 50 percent, though,
either Wade or opposition backers could end up disappointed
and angry.
JACOBS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR S/ES-O, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP 3: WADE
WAITING FOR A DEFINITIVE 50 PERCENT
REF: A. DAKAR 0427
B. DAKAR 0426
1. (SBU) President Abdoulaye Wade is leading the first round
presidential pack throughout the country and is ahead by
surprising margins (80 percent in Touba) and in unexpected
areas (Podor). The Government made an early claim that Wade
was winning 57 percent, but the opposition is brandishing
unofficial and partial vote tallies to claim Wade will finish
with 48 percent. Both sides are conducting a psychological
war designed to comfort supporters, demoralize rivals, and
influence first the National Vote Count Commission
(Commission Nationale de Recensement des Votes) and then the
Constitutional Council, which will determine official
results. Wade is ahead by a long distance, but it is not yet
clear that he has surpassed 50 percent need to avoid a second
round.
2. (SBU) With over 60 percent of the vote counted, turnout
appears to have been between 60 and 80 percent. Former Prime
Minister Idrissa Seck and Socialist Party leader Ousmane
Tanor Dieng and are in a tight race for second place with
percentages in the mid-teens. Moustapha Niasse, earlier
considered a contender, has apparently collapsed to single
digits. Ziguinchor Mayor Robert Sagna, who deserted the
Socialists to run an independent campaign, is suffering the
embarrassment of losing to Wade in the Casamance. None of
the other ten presidential candidates garnered significant
support.
3. (SBU) There was little or no violence in the election,
and the situation in the streets is calm but could depend on
how the vote count shapes up and how the Vote Count
Commission interprets results and calls the winner. The
public would have calmly accepted a clear result leading to a
second round. Alternatively, a clear Wade victory such as
the 57 percent claimed by the Prime Minister would have
discouraged even opposition diehards from taking to the
streets. If results are very close to 50 percent, though,
either Wade or opposition backers could end up disappointed
and angry.
JACOBS