SENEGAL: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP 3: WADE

UNCLAS DAKAR 000437 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR S/ES-O, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC PINR KDEM SG SUBJECT: SENEGAL: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP 3: WADE WAITING FOR A DEFINITIVE 50 PERCENT REF: A. DAKAR 0427 ¶B. DAKAR 0426 ¶1. (SBU) President Abdoulaye Wade is leading the first round presidential pack throughout the country and is ahead by surprising margins (80 percent in Touba) and in unexpected areas (Podor). The Government made an early claim that Wade was winning 57 percent, but the opposition is brandishing unofficial and partial vote tallies to claim Wade will finish with 48 percent. Both sides are conducting a psychological war designed to comfort supporters, demoralize rivals, and influence first the National Vote Count Commission (Commission Nationale de Recensement des Votes) and then the Constitutional Council, which will determine official results. Wade is ahead by a long distance, but it is not yet clear that he has surpassed 50 percent need to avoid a second round. ¶2. (SBU) With over 60 percent of the vote counted, turnout appears to have been between 60 and 80 percent. Former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck and Socialist Party leader Ousmane Tanor Dieng and are in a tight race for second place with percentages in the mid-teens. Moustapha Niasse, earlier considered a contender, has apparently collapsed to single digits. Ziguinchor Mayor Robert Sagna, who deserted the Socialists to run an independent campaign, is suffering the embarrassment of losing to Wade in the Casamance. None of the other ten presidential candidates garnered significant support. ¶3. (SBU) There was little or no violence in the election, and the situation in the streets is calm but could depend on how the vote count shapes up and how the Vote Count Commission interprets results and calls the winner. The public would have calmly accepted a clear result leading to a second round. Alternatively, a clear Wade victory such as the 57 percent claimed by the Prime Minister would have discouraged even opposition diehards from taking to the streets. If results are very close to 50 percent, though, either Wade or opposition backers could end up disappointed and angry. JACOBS