SUNDAY'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THERE'LL BE A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000393

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SUNDAY'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THERE'LL BE A
SECOND ROUND, OR SOMETHING'S FISHY

REF: DAKAR 0380

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) President Abdoulaye Wade's people claim he will win
the first round presidential election on February 25.
Others, in sharp contrast, claim his private polls are so bad
he could drop out of the race before Sunday. Amidst this fog
of spin and speculation, and absent reliable polls, we find
it unlikely Wade will win the first round. His personal
political base has never been more than a third of the
electorate and his ruling party is fractured and fraying.
There is, in addition, deep disappointment with his
performance and a widespread perception that social and
economic problems are getting worse. It is true, though,
that his Interior Ministry has reshaped and some critics
would say manipulated the electoral process, invariably in
ways that could help him. The opposition is already charging
it will be a "coup d'etat" if Wade is declared winner in the
first round. END SUMMARY.

THE WAR OF SPIN
--------------

2. (C) Wade's Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) is trying to
construct a case that Wade is invulnerable and his
re-election inevitable, with consistent prediction that he
will win with "just over 50 percent." In support of that,
the PDS is spending huge sums of money, and Wade's campaign
slogan, "Together, let's continue to build Senegal," reflects
the heavy publicity that state media are giving public works
projects in Dakar; PDS organizers are hinting to the public
that any successor might leave those projects unfinished.


3. (C) In contrast, there have been rumors -- totally
unsubstantiated and possibly circulated by the opposition --
that Wade's latest polls are so devastating he might even
withdraw from the race before Sunday. This may be unlikely,
but we have found widespread disappointment with Wade's
performance on economic issues, and a pervasive feeling that
he has "wasted" the opportunity granted him seven years ago
to reform and reinvigorate the political and economic
systems. Furthermore, problems in energy and cooking gas
supply, stagnation in the agricultural sector, and traffic
gridlock in Dakar have negated political gains he could have
expected from programs to construct new schools,
kindergartens, village lighting and roads in rural areas.
While Wade won thanks to Dakar slum votes in 2000, some say
slum dwellers this year are as disenchanted as everyone else
with unresolved urban problems, and that they will abandon
him.

PLAYING WITH NUMBERS
--------------

4. (C) In an election with, by our count, four major, five
middleweight and six minor candidates, the vote is expected
to be dispersed widely. In calculating Wade's Wade's
potential vote, they refer not to his eventual 2000
second-round majority, but to his scores in the single-round
elections of 1988 (officially 26 percent, although this was
probably rigged downward by the Socialist party government);
1993 (32 percent); and the first round in 2000 (31 percent).
His base and that of the PDS, they conclude, has never
exceeded one third of the electorate. He has presumably
picked up a few percent thanks to his co-optation of some
Socialists, but has also presumably lost some because of
ex-Prime Minister Idrissa Seck's on-again, off-again
defection from the PDS. Furthermore, there are questions
whether the PDS, always Wade's personal instrument rather
than a structured political party, can overcome recent
internal strife and run an efficient campaign.

RESHAPING THE ELECTORAL PROCESS
--------------

5. (C) Wade's Interior Ministry, especially in the last year
and a half under long-time PDS stalwart Ousmane NGom, has
applied post-2000 constitutional amendments, laws and
presidential decrees to reshape the electoral process and
create a new and by some accounts less effective election
watchdog organization. Critics charge, and provide evidence,
that NGom has invariably shaped the new system in Wade's
favor. Moreover, they allege that NGom has manipulated first
voter registration and then distribution of voter
registration cards to favor pro-Wade areas and disadvantage
the opposition. The opposition argues that by holding down
the vote and by allegedly preparing to allow mostly pro-Wade
partisans to vote, the Interior Ministry will effectively rig

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the election.

THE FIRE AND BLOOD GAMBIT
--------------

6. (SBU) In just the last few days, the opposition has
stepped up warnings to Wade not to manufacture a first-round
victory. The usually soft-spoken and eminently reasonable
international lawyer Aissata Tall Sall, in her role as
Socialist leader Ousmane Tanor Dieng's campaign manager, has
warned that a first round victory will amount to a coup
d'etat and that the country will become "ungovernable."
Ex-Prime Minister Seck has warned of "fraud," while another
ex-Prime Minister and presidential candidate, Moustapha
Niasse, warns of an "electoral hold-up." Press headlines
charge that Wade is "making fraud official," and claim that
Prime Minister Macky Sall's prediction that there will be no
second round amounts to "the theorizing of theft." There are
wild rumors that the Government is preparing to jam phone
lines or the radio network, or that religious militias (Kara
MBacke, Bethiou Thioune, Mamoune Niasse,s) will march to the
presidency on Sunday to declare Wade's victory. Others in
the opposition have warned that fixing the election would
subject the country to "fire and blood," and while there has
always been a significant element of bluff to these warnings,
they seem increasingly to indicate real plans to take to the
streets in case of blatant fraud.

COMMENT
--------------

7. (C) In the absence of reliable public polls, no one knows
how this election will turn out. Wade's ruling PDS has spent
massively on his campaign and he enjoys the advantages of
incumbency, such as domination of public radio and TV. There
is, though, deep disappointment with Wade's leadership and
widespread disgruntlement over social and economic problems.
We do not believe that Wade in a fair and transparent
election can significantly surpass his traditional score of a
third of the vote, plus whatever limited support he may gain
from Socialist defectors. All that plus the advantages his
Interior Ministry has built for him into the new electoral
process may enable him to approach 50 percent of the vote.
We do not believe, though, that he could credibly win in the
first round.


8. (C) Indeed, the opposition has already made clear that
they will not credit a Wade first-round victory, and that
they will take to the streets if he is declared the winner.
There is potential for unrest and even violence in the coming
weeks, while in the longer term the opposition and much of
civil society would react to a first round Wade victory by
refusing to grant that he has the legitimacy to rule. END
COMMENT.


9. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar,s classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar.
JACOBS