NEXT WEEK'S ELECTIONS: SOME RANDOM OBSERVATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 000380 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM PINS SG SUBJECT: NEXT WEEK'S ELECTIONS: SOME RANDOM OBSERVATIONS AND INDICATORS REF: DAKAR 0314 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. In a four-day trip to seven cities, we found flaws in the newly created electoral process. Watchdog organizations are under-funded, under-equipped, undermanned, not always well managed, and inefficient. Meanwhile, 15 presidential campaigns crisscross the country, tying up roads and raising dust in the remotest somnolent villages. President Abdoulaye Wade's Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) is in sometimes turbulent disarray and, while Wade is surprisingly strong in a few pockets, public discontent with his leadership seems deep and widespread. Among other serious candidates, ex-Prime Minister Idrissa Seck seems to be fading and Moustapha Niasse clearly is, but Socialist leader Ousmane Tanor Dieng, whose house was attacked by PDS zealots, has had some successful rallies. Minister of State without portfolio Landing Savane,s motorcade came under fire ) presumably from Movement of Democratic Forces of the Casamance (MFDC) rebels ) in the Casamance. END SUMMARY. COMMISSION ELECTORALE NATIONALE AUTONOME -------------- ¶2. (C) The CENA and its departmental level CEDA's have not been able to overcome public suspicion that they are too closely tied to Wade's ruling party, and their inability until very recently to obtain adequate funding or equipment has badly hampered their ability to organize distribution of voter registration cards. In visits to CEDAs in Thies, MBour, Kaolack, Djourbel, Darou Mousty, Louga and Saint Louis, we found that while rates of distribution varied widely among communes and arrondissements, in general about 80 percent of registered voters had received cards. In MBour, the elderly and mild retired teacher who heads the CEDA could hardly contain his rage that the Interior Ministry, despite reiterated promises, had not delivered 64,570 cards just 11 days before the election. All CEDA's are prepared to continue distributing cards through election day, but even though they will prolong the voting period by an hour or two, they recognize that not all registered voters who show up to vote will be able to. ¶3. (C) The CEDAs are determined to follow the law to the letter. A problem, though, as journalists in Saint Louis told us, is that the people handing out cards are unknowledgeable about the law, sometimes illiterate, untrained and uncommitted to the task. CEDA offices, they charged, open and close at unpredictable hours, and some voters have had to return time and again in the search for their voter cards. When we asked in several cities whether there was a pattern of preferential treatment for areas known to be partial to President Wade, the answer was invariably, "that's what everyone suspects, but we can't find the proof." One absolute rule the CEDAs insist on is that each registered voter must show up in person to obtain his voter card. A Louga-based reporter, though, told us that in Linguere, Wade coalition partner Djibo Ka is concerned that he cannot achieve the "Soviet-style 90 percent" that he wants because shepherds and herdsmen are not coming in from their pastures, and that he has, therefore, organized a committee to pick up cards and deliver them to loyal voters. ¶4. (C) The CEDAs are a mixed lot, normally staffed by ex-teachers, but with a heavy mix of ex-gendarmes in Louga and a lawyer, a senior court clerk and a political science professor in the intellectual center of Saint Louis. Each CEDA has a set of brand new equipment, some of it delivered in just the last few weeks, consisting of a computer, a printer, a fax, a fan, four imitation leather chairs and a table/desk. Each also has a new four-wheel-drive vehicle and an allowance for gasoline that each considers to be just adequate. None has yet received the materials it needs for election day, such as curtains and voting urns, but then none wants to receive them too early because they don't want the responsibility of storing and guarding them. All the CEDAs are concerned by this weekend's vote by the approximately 23,000 registered military, gendarmes, police and paramilitary (for example, the rangers of the Water and Forests Ministry),since they are not allowed by law to count this vote and must therefore keep the security force ballots under lock and key for a week until the general election on February 25. THUGS, CUDGELS AND THE FOX POLICING THE HENHOUSE -------------- --- DAKAR 00000380 002 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) In good Senegalese style, major politicians have generally stepped back from violence. Both Wade and Moustapha Niasse were in Saint Louis at the same time, and while the opposition is claiming the Interior Ministry unfairly blocked the Niasse cortege, the hotel desk clerk at the hotel where all the major politicos stay claims that in fact the near-confrontation was avoided by on-the-street mid-level cooperation between the presidential security contingent and Niasse's bodyguards. The media report that 100 PDS thugs approached Socialist leader Tanor's house with clubs, that a house guard wanted to pummel the chief thug, but that Mrs Tanor intervened to stop the scuffle. ¶6. (C) In a more serious incident, Agriculture Minister Farba Senghor's young followers swung their clubs and scored some injuries in Keur Matar Gueye, near Thies. Villagers support Thies Mayor Seck, and, in recent weeks, marred Wade's visit by shouting and wearing red armbands, a form of symbolic protest which Wade himself created but which apparently makes him ... see red. ¶7. (C) The most serious incident, though, was between the PDS's own warring factions. Our political section happened to be present at the start of the affair in Darou Mousty and witnessed events up to but not including the firing of shots. Arriving just hours before Wade's visit to this important religious and political center near Touba, we were accompanied through the throngs by one of our favorite deputies, said a quick hello to ex-Minister of Environment and newly-returned-to-PDS Modou Diagne Fada, and proceeded toward two to three thousand people on the parade grounds. As we approached, hundreds of nervously smiling women started running in our direction, and we heard warnings of "guerre de pancartes," or "war of posters." Then, hundreds of wooden-handled posters started flying into the air. Current Minister of Environment Thierno Lo was tearing up his ministerial predecessor and hometown neighbor and rival Fada's posters. We decided on a prudent retreat from the town, narrowly avoided crushing by a huge fleeing truck with sound system, were held back by traffic and more running crowds, and then saw Fada heading into the Lo crowd with vans full of very large and businesslike bodyguards. Fada's men reportedly fired guns to quiet the situation and, in a scene of delicious irony, the Qadhafi-like Mouride political, religious and militia leader General Kara MBacke was called in to quell the dispute and make sure Lo and Fada were later in the day at Wade's left and right shoulder. ¶8. (C) In Diourbel, we heard from a local radio director that another Mouride religious leader, the openly pro-Wade Bethio Thioune, had commissioned his militia with intimidating the opposition and especially the press. On election day, he said he had recommended to reporters, photographers and tv/radio staffers that they go about in groups of at least two and preferably three. In Saint Louis, we heard from a university political scientist and a sociologist that Bethio's loyal followers at the local government-sponsored military high school had in recent days been wearing their uniforms about town. The academics considered that not especially worrisome, but noteworthy. ¶9. (U) In a troubling February 14 incident, Minister of State without portfolio Landing Savane,s motorcade came under fire ) presumably from Movement of Democratic Forces of the Casamance (MFDC) rebels ) in the Casamance. That same day, rebels or bandits fired on government vehicles transporting civilians, killing three and wounding three. OPPOSITION: WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN? -------------- ¶10. (C) Apart from campaign violence, Seck continues to suffer from suspicions that he struck a compromising deal in recent meetings with Wade, and his behavior is raising doubts about his commitment to his campaign. One staffer told us recently that Seck had become withdrawn after seeing Wade. Last week, he left crowds standing in the southern town of Velingara and the eastern town of Bakel in order to fly back to Dakar. There was speculation he was seeing Wade again, his staff announced he was meeting with industry leaders, but no one is sure. By Thursday, he was back on the campaign trail, and we crossed his motorcade in a village near Thies. On February 15, Seck created more confusion and consternation when he told a rally that he has not rejoined the PDS and would not support Wade in a second round. At this point, although he still draws crowds, more and more Senegalese appear to be asking what he really stands for. ¶11. (C) Moustapha Niasse, Wade's first prime minister and the third-place finisher in the 2000 campaign, has been DAKAR 00000380 003 OF 003 spending a lot of money. His sound truck has our favorite image of the campaign: him standing in a Senegal-as-tropical-Switzerland, complete with tremendous fat cows and palm trees. His campaign, though, appears to be running out of steam. We arrived in Louga as he was transforming a scheduled press campaign into a rally-the-troops pep talk. Afterward, he complained to reporters that they were not getting his message out clearly. ¶12. (C) In Kaolack, which has always been knife-edge close between Wade and his opponents, a group of reporters told us Ousmane Tanor Dieng had "stabilized the Socialist vote," that is, held it steady since 2000. That, they said, should be enough to defeat Wade in Kaolack and throughout the country. In contrast, a few days before our trip, a Socialist activist in the Senegal River Valley said he was having unexpected trouble organizing, and that he feared the area's religiously conservative Toucouleur population, and especially its marabouts, would "follow power" and vote for Wade. In general, though, the impression is that Tanor is drawing good crowds nationwide and stands a chance of being Wade's opponent in an expected second round. ¶13. (C) This campaign is proving very costly, and the high registration costs have left some minor parties strapped for cash. Talla Sylla is a serious young politician who is trying to build support for future campaigns. Though he has a wide network of friends and possibly cash supporters throughout the region, his campaign manager tells us he is barely able to maintain the cash flow just for travel and preparation of radio and tv messages. COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) The opposition, including Tanor campaign manager Aissata Tall Sall, has charged that the Government is committing fraud both to hold voter turnout down and to assure that Wade backers get their voter registration cards. No one has proven these charges, but if there is electoral manipulation, we are not convinced the newly created election watchdog group, the CENA and its local affiliates the CEDAs, has the wherewithal or respect and influence needed to do much about it. ¶15. (C) As for the balance of political influence, we note at this point only that all the candidates are on the road, on the airwaves and TV screens, and in the print media, searching in the remotest village and deepest slum for votes. END COMMENT. ¶16. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar classified website at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar. JACOBS