BISHOPS, MARABOUTS, BUSINESSMEN AND STONE-THROWING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000314 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE, DRL/IRF AND INR/AA PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2017 TAGS: PINS PHUM PGOV PINR KDEM KIRF SG SUBJECT: BISHOPS, MARABOUTS, BUSINESSMEN AND STONE-THROWING VOTERS REF: DAKAR 0203 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROY L. WHITAKER FOR REASONS 1.4(B) A ND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The election campaign has begun, marked by President Abdoulaye Wade's reaffirmation of the importance to him of religion, and by the first acts of violence against major presidential candidates. Days before, the country's most activist and outspoken religious leader told visiting AF/W Desk Officer Dorsey Lockhart why postponing elections was the best strategy for assuring social peace. While Tidjane spokesperson Abdoul Aziz Sy al Ibn (Junior) was reuniting Wade with former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck to achieve peace, Catholic Archbishop of Dakar Theodore Andrien Sarr and the other Catholic bishops were persuading the opposition to drop its planned February 2 march to press for holding the elections on the original schedule. The opposition abandoned not only the demonstration but also efforts to hold the legislative elections before June 3. Although the content of any Wade-Seck agreement remains shrouded in mystery, Seck has rejoined the ruling party while maintaining his candidacy for the presidency, and he secured the release of his aides and of prominent businessman Bara Tall. END SUMMARY. FAITH AND SECURITY -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Wade spent February 4, the first day of the election campaign, in the heart of the Mouride Brotherhood capital to affirm "I am a Muslim and a Mouride." He was careful to add, though, "I help out all religious courts," a reference to his recent handouts for cultural centers, libraries or home improvements for various spiritual leaders. Despite his largesse, Muslim and Catholic leaders have voiced concern about laggard election preparations, potential for fraud and above all the danger of post-election violence. Catholic bishops called for transparency, personal security and respect for election results. An imam warned media that, "all conditions for post-election trouble are present." The Salafist Jamaatu Ibadou Rahman predicted consequences from politicians' "inconstancy and deviousness." TIDJANE LEADER ENCOURAGES ELECTION POSTPONEMENT -------------- -- ¶3. (C) On January 31, Tidjane spokesman Abdoul Aziz Sy al Ibn (Junior),told visiting AF/W Desk Officer Lockhart of his concerns for social peace and of recommendations he had offered Wade and ex-Prime Minister Seck while organizing their recent reunions (Reftel). Economic and social failures, incompetence or manipulation in preparing the elections, and opposition splintering would all cast doubt on the outcome of the February 25 presidential election, he said. Wade badly wanted two more years added to his term to finish large-scale construction projects and prepare a successor, but had decided he could not postpone elections because "the western powers will clobber me, and I'll have no legitimacy with the opposition." ¶4. (C) In fact, Junior stressed, while the opposition were publicly demanding adherence to election schedules, they were hoping privately and even encouraging a delay. The potential for post-election violence was simply too great, and the danger was not just from pro-Wade militias: "there will be groups, jobless young people who tried and failed to slip into Europe by boat," who are angry and will take to the streets if they're unhappy with the election. Since there was no other way to assure social stability in a very troubled time, Junior said, he supported an election postponement, and had made that clear to Wade, Seck and the opposition. When we argued, emphatically, that the U.S. expected respect for national institutions and actions in accordance with law and the Constitution, Junior accepted that, yes, "all the peoples of the Book, Muslim, Christian and Jew, had great respect for the rule of the written word." ¶5. (U) Junior only attended the beginning of the first Wade-Seck meeting; little information has emerged from that four-hour meeting or the three meetings that followed. What we know thus far is that Seck has rejoined the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) while maintaining his candidacy for president; Seck secured the release of his aides Vieux Sandiery Diop, Cheikh Ndiaye and Dame Dieng who were detained in St. Louis in November, as well as Bara Tall, the President of Jean Lefebvre-Senegal. The judiciary dismissed fraud and embezzlement charges against Tall, and with his release, the &Chantiers de Thies8 corruption case would seem closed without the High Court of Justice ever convening. DAKAR 00000314 002 OF 002 SOME EARLY INCIDENTS -------------- ¶6. (C) There has been some rock throwing at various events, especially Seck rallies. The Cheikh Anta Diop and Gaston Berger University campuses are quiet; students who care about political issues are off campaigning for their candidates and will return only after election day to express their happiness or anger at the outcome. The most serious near-incident of violence occurred in Saint Louis, when the up-and-coming young politician Talla Sylla was approached by a man with a machete. His bodyguard wrestled him down and police arrested him though they released him later on the reported grounds that he was not political, just crazy. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) The election campaign has now begun, and it seems virtually impossible that the election will now be postponed. Tidjane leader Junior's support for postponement, though, represented what is apparently a widespread belief that severe social unrest could be ignited by a combination of severe economic and social conditions, the inadequacy or manipulation of election preparations, and Wade's insistence that he needs a guarantee of two more years to assure his legacy. For Junior and we believe for many others, the stipulations of the law and Constitution are secondary to maintaining social peace. ¶8. (C) On a more practical level, many of Senegal,s 4.9 million voters still do not have their voter cards; estimates range from 5 to 60 percent. Turnout at some of President Wade,s rallies this week has been pathetic, but it is way too early to count Wade or any of the other 14 candidates out. END COMMENT. ¶9. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar,s classified website at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar. JACOBS