SENEGAL: THE SYMPTOMS OF INSTABILITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002216 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL AND INR/AA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KISL SG SUBJECT: SENEGAL: THE SYMPTOMS OF INSTABILITY SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In a November 2, televised address President Abdoulaye Wade called for a "sacred union of the nation" to confront the country's economic difficulties. He proposed to reduce the salaries of all workers to establish a national solidarity fund. He also announced that he had instructed the prime minister to reduce the size the cabinet. Union leaders, with the strong support of the public, rejected the proposed reductions and continue to call for demonstrations and general strikes. On November 5, the GOS retreated by announcing that the measure and deductions would only be applied to the salaries of the president, ministers, and parliamentarians. END SUMMARY. CIVIL SERVANTS SAY NO TO SALARY REDUCTIONS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The fierce and swift rejection of Wade's call for solidarity is unprecedented. Senegalese workers, even under the unpopular rule of the Socialist Abdou Diouf, had generally accepted salary reductions in order to contribute to a solidarity fund. This refusal is a clear political message calling for economic and governance reforms. Three days before making his proposal, Wade had announced 19 measures he had taken or would take to alleviate the cost of living. These measures include, inter alia, tax exemption on some food products, energy saving measures, and state-controlled prices on commodities. Measures also included his usual populist statements such as accelerating the exploitation of Senegal's offshore heavy oil deposits as a response to high oil prices. WIDENING THE GAP -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Trade union reaction and the media's fierce criticism of Wade's governance led the GOS to revise its plans. Deductions will now only be applied to the salary of President Wade (30 per cent) and those of the prime minister, ministers, members of the National Assembly and the Senate in proportions varying from 25 to 15 per cent. In the eyes of many Senegalese, Wade is wasting the country's resources by using inducements such as huge salaries, luxury cars, free housing, and free gasoline to keep the political class in line. This reckless spending is becoming unacceptable to ordinary people who have barely enough to eat and to the desperate young Senegalese who continue to perish by the hundreds at sea in their efforts to migrate clandestinely to Spain. The media have denounced what is perceived as unevenly shared sacrifices and are calling for a reduction of unnecessary public spending. They are asking Wade to forego the purchase of one of the two new executive jet planes he has budgeted for and the elimination of the newly-recreated Senate (Note: Wade eliminated the Senate shortly after being elected the first time because, according to him, it served no purpose. He recently recreated it again as a largely consultative body. Its 100 members all have the status and perquisites of ministers and most were appointed by Wade. End Note.) The national mood can be summed up by the extremely negative comments made by readers against Wade on a local Website (rewmi.com) after they posted an article from a local newspaper reporting that Wade's acceptance of a Chinese limousine donated by the manufacturer. The police detained the owner of the site for 24 hours and are hunting down the authors of the comments. SLIDING INTO STARVATION -------------- ¶4. (SBU) It is more and more common to hear that many Senegalese in urban suburbs or the countryside can only afford one meal per day. Prices for basic goods such as bread, milk, cooking oil, and butane gas are skyrocketing and a six percent increase in electricity bills is imminent. The rise in rental costs has also been phenomenal. Some inland areas are suffering from drought conditions due to a poor rainy season, and an equine plague has killed about 2000 horses, animals which are used by farmers for cultivation and as a means of transportation both in the countryside and in cities and towns. It is becoming increasingly difficult for many Senegalese to make ends meet and this in turn is fueling a fair degree of animosity against the ruling elite. TRADE UNIONS WAKE UP -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In the past Wade had successfully divided trade unions by facilitating the creation of new pro-PDS unions. Today Senegal has 18 union associations of which only three are actually representative of workers. However, a growing dissatisfaction in the population has led the major unions to put aside their difference to join forces against Wade's unpopular measures. There are two main groupings: one an umbrella group called the "Intersyndicale des syndicates" led by members from the opposition Independence and Labor Party (PIT) and the "Front Unitaire" (United DAKAR 00002216 002 OF 002 Front). These two labor forces are planning to organize demonstrations and a general strike in the coming weeks. However, with Wade's tactical withdrawal of his unpopular measure of salary reductions, it is not clear whether or not the unions will continue to receive popular support for a general strike. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Many union leaders feel that the GOS lost the skirmish but not the battle. They believe that Wade's ultimate objective was to send a blunt message to dissuade workers from demanding new salary increases in this difficult economic context. They all indicated their determination to maintain pressure on the GOS to reduce waste and corruption in government expenditure and to increase salaries across the board. Since Wade's election in 2000 Senegal is facing its first real financial crisis. The steady rise in oil prices caught the GOS unprepared and this was compounded by the fact that a large the country's resources had been channeled into political patronage and the building of costly infrastructure projects in Dakar that Wade wants as the cornerstones of his legacy. Though these projects will likely have long term benefits for economic growth of at least the capital, people who need to survive on a daily basis are in effect saying to the government "we cannot eat roads." The current socioeconomic turmoil is symptom of a deeper malaise and by proposing to reduce the size of his cabinet Wade is trying to send a message to the people that he hears their pleas and he understands. However, for many these gestures are far too little and much too late. SMITH