IS POLITICAL VIOLENCE ON THE HORIZON?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002211 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI PINR KDEM CASC SG SUBJECT: IS POLITICAL VIOLENCE ON THE HORIZON? REF: A) DAKAR 2134 B) DAKAR 2122 Classified By: CHARGE D,AFFAIRES JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND ( D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S) In November 5 meeting Charge informed Barthelemy Dias, the new leader of the Socialist Party's youth movement and perennial presidential thorn in the side, that he had been summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and informed that because of Dias's American citizenship the GOS believes it is inappropriate for Dias to be a vocal critic of President Abdoulaye Wade and his government. The Charge was urged to rein him in - otherwise Senegal would consider deporting him. Dias, a naturalized American whose father is a very prominent Senegalese politician, was born and raised in Senegal. Dias replied he was aware of the government's efforts to silence him and asserted that the government would never carry out this threat and did not rule out violence as a means to get Wade out of power. End Summary. The Animosity Runs Deep -------------- ¶2. (C) Dias is a brash, young Socialist Party (PS) politician whom by all accounts President Wade hates. In 2006 Wade had both father and son arrested. In a discussion with Poloffs Dias detailed how his father, who has served all three of Senegal's presidents, was dragged out of his house in his underwear at five o'clock in the morning by the Criminal Investigations Department (DIC) police, how his mother was beaten up, and how his house was ransacked. The younger Dias spent three months in jail without ever being charged (Note: these events were all documented in Senegal's 2006 Human Rights report. End note.). Most recently, Dias and his PS colleagues booed Wade during a speech he was giving to the Congressional Black Caucus in Washington. Reports indicate that Wade was visibly shaken as he is unused to this kind of treatment in Senegal. Now that Dias has been elevated to a prominent and powerful position within the PS (Ref A) Wade appears to be looking for ways to sideline him, shut him up, or get rid of him. Hence, the Charge,s cryptic summons to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He,s one of yours... Do something -------------- ¶3. (S) In a meeting with the MFA's Chief of Staff, Mankeur Ndiaye, Charge was informed that Dias was an American citizen who was making outrageous and abusive statements about the President and his family and that he could be escorted to the "border at anytime." Ndiaye implied that the Charge should talk to him and warn him to shut up. Subsequently, Charge called Dias for a meeting for the purpose of advising him of the Ndiaye conversation, whereupon Dias told him he was aware of the government's threats and its attempt to use his American citizenship as a basis for threatening him with the loss of his Senegalese citizenship. Moreover, he said that the same thing had happened to his father. Dias said that his family name is Cape Verdean in origin. When his father was arrested he was reportedly asked, "Are you Senegalese?" in spite of having been born in Senegal to Senegalese parents. In response to this threat Dias told Charge: "If I am deported, half of Wade's cabinet and his wife would be on the plane with me and anyway I would be back in the country in 72 hours. They used the ethnicity card in the Ivory Coast and looked what happened there." ¶4. (S) Dias then told Charge that in the aftermath of the recent PS Congress big changes were afoot in the party and PS members were getting ready to hit the streets hard. Dias combatively asserted, "Wade has to understand that we are serious. There is a great possibility that blood will flow, people will end up in jail and some might even get killed." Charge emphasized that the United States categorically deplores the use of violence, adding that political change must come through peaceful and legal means. Dias shot back that Wade understands nothing but violence and that if the president continues his refusal to meet with the opposition they would be left with little choice but to escalate the confrontations. Dias also declared that PS would stop the planned March 2008 Organization of the Islamic Conferences (OIC) Summit from taking place, although he did not elaborate how he would achieve this goal. A Major Grudge - But Dias Could Be Dangerous -------------- ¶5. (S) In a subsequent meeting with PolOffs Dias expanded and expounded: "Wade is corrupt, sick, and old. His son Karim - whom I know very well because we played together as kids - DAKAR 00002211 002 OF 002 and all his cronies are thieves. Karim has stolen over USD 300 million. Every time there is a project he forces the bidders to jack up their prices so that he can get his cut. The (Route en) Corniche (road project) could have been built for 16 billion CFA (USD 36 million) but instead it was built for 22 billion CFA (USD 49 million) because of Karim. The people are sick and tired." He then added: "If Karim becomes President it's all over for us, he will put us all in jail. He's loaded and he will do whatever he wants. Wade won't be ousted through an election. Violence is the only way we can get him out of power. This is a man who can do what he wants. He can dissolve the Assembly tomorrow by just changing the Constitution which his parliament will do. Look at what he did with Council of the Republic for Economic and Social Affairs (CRAES). He dissolved the institution just to put his girlfriend (Note: Persistent rumors of a Presidential relationship with prominent Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) women's leader Aminata Tall have been circulating for many years now) in charge.8(REF B). A Word of Caution -------------- ¶6. (S) PolOffs cautioned Dias that violence was not the way to go about changing governments, adding that many steps have yet to be taken. In answer to a question about the upcoming May 2008 local elections, Dias revealed (confidentially) that the Socialist Party would/would contest local elections but that they will not announce this until very late in the game: "If we announce it now and Wade feels like public opinion is going against him he will just postpone the elections." (Comment: There is truth to this statement given that Wade postponed both presidential and legislative elections on multiple occasions. End comment.) PolOffs emphasized that in a democracy many tools, such using the media and marches are available to a creative opposition and that so far none of those had yet to be deployed. Dias acknowledged that perhaps this was true, but seemed adamant that Wade's fire had to be met with fire. Comment -------------- ¶7. (S) Dias certainly seems eager to use violence as a political tool and is probably charismatic enough to convince others to follow him, which is probably why the PS leadership put him in charge of the potentially volatile student and youth movement. Dias, however, is unlikely to act independently of PS leader Ousmane Tanor Dieng who himself has refrained from even suggesting tactics resembling those outlined by Dias. Dias's talk of violence and death is nonetheless worrisome and comes at a time of increased dissatisfaction with Wade's government. Wade's recent, since aborted, move the cut the salaries of civil servants (to be reported septel) has generated widespread disquiet and unions are talking seriously about striking. Trying to neutralize political opponents is old hat for Wade, but the government's attempt to get the United States involved in a domestic imbroglio smacks of desperation and once again underlines that Wade is increasingly giving into an inclination to use autocratic measures to get his way. End Comment. SMITH SMITH