THE ROAD AHEAD FOR SENEGAL,S OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 001859

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2017
TAGS: KDEM KISL PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SOCI SG
SUBJECT: THE ROAD AHEAD FOR SENEGAL,S OPPOSITION

REF: DAKAR 1821

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D,AFFAIRES JAY SMITH FOR REASONS 1.
4 (B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a meeting with the Charge D'Affaires, the leaders
of Senegal's main opposition parties explained their current
campaign to hold a National Dialogue and warned that Senegal
was faced with the triple threat of an unstable political
situation, an out-of-control economy, and social discontent.
End Summary.


2. (C) Socialist Party leader, Osman Tanor Dieng, opened the
discussion by asserting that the opposition boycott of the
legislative election was the reason why turnout was so low.
"We urged people not to vote and the government's excuse that
people did not because the elections were not important is
untrue. Wade invested lot of personal time and effort in the
campaign." Dieng emphasized that he and his compatriots were
still looking to a dialogue with the President and were
disappointed that, even after the "clear message the people
sent him," he still refuses to meet with them. Dieng also
condemned recent statements by the Cap 21, a group close to
the President, who claim the Front Siggil Senegal is trying
to destabilize the country.

The Succession
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3. (C) Criticizing the Senate as a monochromatic chamber,
Dieng said that Wade will probably pick opposition members to
make it look diverse. He and his colleagues believe that the
Senate is just another piece in Wade's larger plan to
designate his successor. Madieyna Diouf, Deputy Secretary
General of the Alliance Force for Progress, agreed with this
assessment, adding that there were even rumors that Wade was
planning to revive Article 35 of the Constitution (Note: this
Article was conceived to allow President Senghor to pick his
successor). Amath Dansokho, an outspoken former Communist
and current Secretary General of his Party for Independence
and Labor, was even blunter saying that Wade had been
planning this since 1998 and reminded us of Wade's famous
comment that the PDS would rule Senegal for 50 years. He
went on to say that the reason why he broke with his former
Prime Minister Idrissa Seck was to prepare son Karim's rise.
He then declared that Wade did not want to meet with them
because he knows full well that they would never support his
schemes and that is why he is so bent on crushing his
opposition. Dieng then remarked that he could not work out
Wade's relationship with Seck and that both were as bad as
each other (see ref A).

The Future is Bleak -- or so They Claim
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4. (C) Arguing that the country was faced with deepening
economic problems and an untenable political situation, Dieng
touted an "Assises Nationales" (National Dialogue) to restore
harmony. He added that, while they wanted Wade to join them,
it was not a necessity. Dansokho then dramatically asserted
that "I can't guarantee what is happening in Somalia won't
happen here, but there are regressive forces at play that
have hitherto been suppressed." When asked to clarify he
said: "There are Islamic movements here that are feeding off
the people's discontent, they are operating in the
neighborhoods, girls are taking to the veil like never
before, and they are stealthy as they know that the current
climate is not conducive for them." He went on to say that
this was partly a result of Wade's continual attempts to draw
the Mouride brotherhood into the political arena at the
expense of the Tidjani brotherhood, who now feel threatened
by the ascendancy of the Marabouts from Touba. He went on to
say that farmers are suffering and that the situation is
grave for many Senegalese. Dieng was more circumspect,
remarking that while Senegal may not necessarily end up like
Somalia, the nature of the African state is a weak one and
that a lack of dialogue could easily open the door for
non-democratic forces to step in.

Comment
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5. (C) While it is true that the people are facing tough
economic circumstances, to say that Senegal may end up like
Somalia is far-fetched. However, a lack of political
discourse combined with an increasingly unhappy populace over
the price of basic necessities make a National Dialogue the
kind of platform that could formulate new ideas to move the
country in the right direction. This suggestion has

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generated some interest from civil society groups and NGOs
but without Wade or the PDS in attendance, it can only go so
far. Meanwhile, immediately upon his return from vacation
Wade stole the headlines from the opposition by announcing
his plan to build seven new high-speed train lines by the end
of his tenure in 2012 (Note: With this statement he also
quashed rumors that he will step down after two years). As
has been his style, Wade continues to feed people dreams
about what Senegal could be instead of presenting sound
economic plans to alleviate immediate hardships. As one
Embassy contact pointed out, "It is unusual for a family in
Senegal to eat three square meals a day." The real question
thus remains how long a diet of dreams will suffice before
popular patience is exhausted.

Participants
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6. (SBU)

United States
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CDA Jay Smith
Political Officer Osman Tat
Public Affairs Officer Robin Diallo
Political Specialist El Hadj Sarr

The Opposition
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Ousmane Tanor Dieng: First Secretary of the Socialist Party
Amath Dansokho: Secretary General of the Party for
Independence and Labor
Madieyna Diouf: Deputy Secretary General of the Alliance
Force for Progress
SMITH