LOW TURNOUT BY MILITARY AND POLICE IN PRELIMINARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 001173 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2017 TAGS: KDEM KISL PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SOCI SG SUBJECT: LOW TURNOUT BY MILITARY AND POLICE IN PRELIMINARY VOTING FOR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY REF: A. A. DAKAR 1141 ¶B. B. DAKAR 1136 Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER OSMAN N. TAT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Military, paramilitary forces and national police cast the first votes, May 26-27, of Senegal,s 2007 legislative election. Turnout has been reported as extremely low, leading to claims of a successful boycott spearheaded by the &Front Siggil Senegal,8 while other observers argue that absenteeism and an insipid election are the key reasons. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) In order to provide security during elections, members of Senegal,s military, paramilitary forces and national police force voted this past weekend one week ahead of the country. Preliminary statistics reported by the press indicate that voter turnout was extremely low and may average only 30 percent nationwide (Note: In the 2001 legislative election total turnout was 67.4 percent. End Note). The highest rate of participation was in the southwestern region of Velingara, where 88 of the 163 or 53.98 percent of registered voters voted. Statistically more significant, the lowest rate was in the northern region of St Louis where only 185 out of 1488 or 12.48 percent of registered voters voted. Another report, as yet unconfirmed by Poloff, shows that 95 percent of the national police force did not vote. Abstention or Boycott? -------------- ¶3. (C) While the opposition &Front Siggil Senegal8 has been quick to claim that its boycott campaign is working, the fact remains that this elections was always expected to be, at best, lackluster. In the absence of a unified opposition, prevailing wisdom has long-accepted that President Wade,s Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) would win a landslide victory. There has for some time existed a general consensus among influential news editors that the outcome of the election was a forgone conclusion, which may indicate why the Senegalese military stayed in the barracks last weekend. For their part, PDS pendants insist that the military didn,t feel the need to vote because they had already chosen their Commander-in-Chief in the Presidential election last February 12, and that voting in legislative elections is a civilian affair. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) Prime Minister Macky Sall has in many speeches staked his political reputation on a voter turnout of at least 2 million voters (Note: This number is slightly higher than Wade,s vote tally in the Presidential election. End Note). In contrast, the &Front Siggil Senegal8 has focused on discouraging voting to undermine the credibility of the National Assembly, and to demonstrate popular support for its claim that that President Wade is perpetrating electoral fraud and gerrymandering. To the detriment of Senegal,s National Assembly, it appears that the most significant aspect of the twice-delayed 2007 parliamentary election will not be the election itself, but how the PDS and the opposition parties will spin the numbers once it is over. ¶5. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar,s SIPRNET website at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar. JACOBS