LOW TURNOUT BY MILITARY AND POLICE IN PRELIMINARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 001173

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2017
TAGS: KDEM KISL PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SOCI SG
SUBJECT: LOW TURNOUT BY MILITARY AND POLICE IN PRELIMINARY
VOTING FOR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

REF: A. A. DAKAR 1141

B. B. DAKAR 1136

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER OSMAN N. TAT FOR REASONS
1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) Military, paramilitary forces and national police
cast the first votes, May 26-27, of Senegal,s 2007
legislative election. Turnout has been reported as extremely
low, leading to claims of a successful boycott spearheaded by
the &Front Siggil Senegal,8 while other observers argue
that absenteeism and an insipid election are the key reasons.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) In order to provide security during elections,
members of Senegal,s military, paramilitary forces and
national police force voted this past weekend one week ahead
of the country. Preliminary statistics reported by the press
indicate that voter turnout was extremely low and may average
only 30 percent nationwide (Note: In the 2001 legislative
election total turnout was 67.4 percent. End Note). The
highest rate of participation was in the southwestern region
of Velingara, where 88 of the 163 or 53.98 percent of
registered voters voted. Statistically more significant, the
lowest rate was in the northern region of St Louis where only
185 out of 1488 or 12.48 percent of registered voters voted.
Another report, as yet unconfirmed by Poloff, shows that 95
percent of the national police force did not vote.

Abstention or Boycott?
--------------


3. (C) While the opposition &Front Siggil Senegal8 has been
quick to claim that its boycott campaign is working, the fact
remains that this elections was always expected to be, at
best, lackluster. In the absence of a unified opposition,
prevailing wisdom has long-accepted that President Wade,s
Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) would win a landslide
victory. There has for some time existed a general consensus
among influential news editors that the outcome of the
election was a forgone conclusion, which may indicate why the
Senegalese military stayed in the barracks last weekend. For
their part, PDS pendants insist that the military didn,t
feel the need to vote because they had already chosen their
Commander-in-Chief in the Presidential election last February
12, and that voting in legislative elections is a civilian
affair.

Comment
--------------


4. (C) Prime Minister Macky Sall has in many speeches staked
his political reputation on a voter turnout of at least 2
million voters (Note: This number is slightly higher than
Wade,s vote tally in the Presidential election. End Note).
In contrast, the &Front Siggil Senegal8 has focused on
discouraging voting to undermine the credibility of the
National Assembly, and to demonstrate popular support for its
claim that that President Wade is perpetrating electoral
fraud and gerrymandering. To the detriment of Senegal,s
National Assembly, it appears that the most significant
aspect of the twice-delayed 2007 parliamentary election will
not be the election itself, but how the PDS and the
opposition parties will spin the numbers once it is over.


5. (U) Visit Embassy Dakar,s SIPRNET website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar.
JACOBS