GUINEA: DANGEROUS GAMES, TREACHEROUS GROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000960 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: GUINEA: DANGEROUS GAMES, TREACHEROUS GROUND Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JULIE WINN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Union leadership and civil society are providing muted support to Prime Minister Kouyate, even in the face of its slow progress, as their mutual enemies in President Conte's circle pursue what some call a concerted plan to undermine the consensus government at every turn. While they have so far limited their response to rhetoric, union reps told us that they are working on a plan of action to ramp up the pressure on all parties to respect the agreements struck last January-February and to respect the people's demand for real change. End Summary. GUINEA'S CLIMATE UNSETTLED AS FACTIONS CONTEND -------------- - ¶2. (U) Guinea's union confederation last week published "Info 46," the latest in a series of position statements and tracts dating back to 2006. The unions provided muted support for the Kouyate government, excusing its lack of progress, and recognizing some successes, notably the partners' forum in Paris July 24-25. ¶3. (U) In contrast, the unions denounced in pointed terms the "enemies of change and thus progress in Guinea,8 citing the acts and obstacles posed by &former dignitaries and their acolytes,8 as well as President Conte confidant Mamadou Sylla. The document argued that such people were blocking all progress, including by encouraging Conte not to sign a series of pending decrees, in order to prove to the population that only they, the old school, could govern. Not so, the union tract stressed, since the people will not be fooled. They know who the authors of their distress really are, and efforts to hold back inevitable change will not go unpunished. ¶4. (C) The publication of Info 46 came against a backdrop of increasing frustration on the part of the government, and a chorus of warnings and worried prognostications from our contacts and in the written and internet press. Rumors continue of a breakdown in communication between Prime Minister Kouyate and President Conte. Observers note the inability of many Ministers to overcome entrenched PUP (Party for Unity and Progress) bureaucracies in their offices, who block or undermine many initiatives. Decrees replacing the layers of civil servants just below the ministerial level have been hung up in the President's office all summer. (Note: Our Treasury Advisor tells us that Ministries are not showing up at the government budget committee's now ongoing hearings, that they seem incapable of preparing and presenting a coherent budget, and that her contacts attribute much of this to bureaucratic sabotage.) ¶5. (SBU) On August 18, national television broadcast a PUP rally at the Palais du Peuple attended by large numbers of former Ministers, regional officials, and Conte crony and party financier Mamadou Sylla (Note: no current cabinet-level officials were observed participating). This anti-change gathering was marked by a gloating sense of resurgence on the part of party stalwarts and sidelined functionaries -- "We're still here and we have power." The crowd included a large number of celebrants and activists carrying banners that said "Down with Change,8 although it is widely believed that these participants were largely paid to attend by Mamadou Sylla. ¶6. (C) In the meantime, worrisome developments continue in the Guinean military, where some soldiers in the camps are once again demanding back pay, this time for those service members who were incarcerated immediately following the 1996 pay mutiny. They have reportedly set a deadline of September 8 for action on this front, but it is unclear what action is expected to take place before this deadline. This is a demand separate from demands under the so-called "Bulletin Rouge" although press, internet and other Guineans confuse the two. UNIONS: CHANGE MUST CONTINUE, WHATEVER IT TAKES -------------- -- ¶7. (U) On August 21, Charge and Poloff called on USTG (Labor Union of Guinean Workers) General Secretary Ibrahima Fofana and CNTG (National Confederation of Guinean Workers) deputy chief Yamoussa Toure. Also joining were the president of the teachers, union, Mbemba Soumah, and USTG executive committee member Taibou Diallo. Informing the union leadership of her imminent departure from Guinea, Charge took note of Info 46, expressing appreciation for its balance in supporting the government in spite of difficulties in making progress. ¶8. (C) Fofana and his cohorts were eager to talk. The CONAKRY 00000960 002 OF 003 country is still in crisis, they stressed. The enemies of change have a concerted plan to destabilize all who stand against them. But, "unity is strength," and the unions and civil society will come together in the next days around an action plan, they said. They will not be divided by those who would risk civil war to retain their privileges. Fofana said the unions must continue to work together as a united bloc; division within their ranks would ultimately result in failure to effect change. Backing the unions and the Kouyate administration are also the Patronat (headed by Yousouff Diallo),civil society, the majority of the population, and possibly some military elements, they pointed out. ¶9. (C) Fofana said that the military had recently approached the unions in order to explore possible opportunities for political collaboration, but more to request union assistance in addressing the back pay issues. Fofana said that union leaders will meet to discuss collaborative opportunities with the military, although he expects to proceed cautiously. He said the unions will not support any military-led political transition and want to make sure they do not even present a situation that could be interpreted as such. On the other hand, provided the military agrees not to shoot civilians, perhaps some agreement around common interests, including pressing for Conte's removal, might be possible. He stressed that those military representatives who had reached out to the unions said they did not/not intend to stage a coup d'etat but wanted a civilian lead. In response to Charge's question, Fofana said that the unions had made clear they did not support the military's getting back pay now as a matter of priority, given all the needs of the country at large. He concurred with Charge's comment that no one group or person should be pressing narrow self-interests at this time. ¶10. (C) Taibou Diallo is union liaison to the Civil-Military Committee established in the wake of a US-funded and USAID and Department of Defense sponsored civil-military seminar in June 2006. The Committee has played a useful liaison role over the last year, and with some continued monetary support from USAID, has been conducting outreach in both sectors of society. Taibou commented on observations made during recent visits to various military bases. She said that the army is essentially split into ideologically divided groups, including more than one group of Red Berets, the Chinese-trained Rangers, the Presidential Guard and the foot soldiers clamoring for pay. While she did not comment on what agenda each of these groups might be pushing, she said that it is clear some are pro-Conte and some are not. Diallo also said that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Minister of Defense are reportedly not talking to each other. However, her group plans to meet with them soon in order to ascertain what they have to say about the current political situation. ¶11. (C) Fofana added that the population will not be fooled by the PUP's claims of renewed power. (Comment: In fact, some believe the current government was pleased to let the broadcast on national television of PUP,s rally go forward since the population will likely be angered by the PUP,s presumption). The unions, intent, along with their natural allies in civil society, is to see that President Conte meets his commitments with regard to the Agreements that led to the consensus government. Whether he will or not was a topic of disagreement, with Taibou Diallo informing us that President Conte may well sign some decrees this weekend, which include appointments of civil service employees below the Ministerial level submitted by Prime Minister Kouyate. If the decrees are not signed, pressure will mount -- and Kouyate's own future will be even shakier. ¶12. (C) Union representatives insisted that they want peaceful change. When one said that meant Conte must go, Charge asked what that meant for succession of power, Yamoussa pointed to the Constitution, but the others were less diplomatic, observing that they are in an extraordinary period and that the Constitution might not apply, given that the National Assembly is basically null and void. (Comment: Charge emphasized that the constitutional mechanism was the only legal way forward they had, but they appeared unconvinced by that argument.) ¶13. (C) COMMENT. This is very much a period of political hardball in Guinea, as those who would inevitably lose power and wealth under a democratic and accountable government exercise every trick possible, dirty and otherwise, to prevent positive change. The unions and civil society, who do not in fact want to be too closely aligned with the Kouyate government, are forced nonetheless to defend it, flaws and all, against their mutual enemies. They want to keep the pressure on both Conte and Kouyate to actually do the work of making life better for Guineans, but they also are all too aware that in another series of strikes or CONAKRY 00000960 003 OF 003 protests, the situation could deteriorate beyond their control. The military's own internal fractures and the inadequacies of the police further cloud the picture. As to the villains of the piece, the old school hardliners and their hangers-on, it is hard to see what they hope to gain other than a last chance to top off a few individuals' bank accounts. Most who appeared in the PUP's party at the Palais du People stand to gain little and to lose all they have left when, as he will sooner or later, President Conte disappears. KAEUPER