GUINEA ELECTIONS WATCH - ONE STEP CLOSER, BUT FAR TO GO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000924 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12598: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: GUINEA ELECTIONS WATCH - ONE STEP CLOSER, BUT FAR TO GO ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Both the majority and opposition blocs finally submitted lists of ten nominations each for the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) to the Ministry of Interior and Security. However, minor opposition parties continue to post obstacles, claiming that they are being shut out of the CENI. With a little over four months to go and still no CENI, the Ministry of Interior is so far holding to the December elections timeline despite all indications that it will be nearly impossible to achieve. There is a growing perception among the general population that some factions within Government ministries and/or the majority party may be stalling. This perception is exacerbated by the Ministry's lack of a public relations program to communicate about election preparations. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On August 13, Poloff met with El Hadj Amadou Baillo Diallo, Secretary General of the Ministry of Interior and Security. Baillo Diallo has been in the same position since 1992 and overseen every Guinean election over the last 15 years. In recent staff shake-ups within the Ministry, nearly all of Diallo's peers were reassigned as governors or prefects while Diallo was left behind. Most Ministry officials with any experience organizing elections are no longer within the Ministry. ¶3. (SBU) Diallo confirmed that both the majority and opposition blocs submitted their lists of CENI nominations to his office last week, but suggested that the process is still blocked. Some members of the opposition, which is composed of 16 different parties, object to the CENI nominations, claiming that the smaller parties are not represented within the ten seats. The Ministry will have another meeting with parties at an unspecified date to try to reach agreement. ¶4. (SBU) Elections remain officially scheduled for December, which Diallo said is still possible. He noted that the voter registration equipment (being provided by the donor community) will be in place by October 5 and that the registration process should start shortly thereafter. (Note - Technical advisors to the process report that they will need a minimum of two months to complete voter registration). Diallo added that it is for the political parties to look at the elections timeline and request a change in the date, if necessary. The Ministry will not make that decision. �0A;¶5. (SBU) When asked about a public relations campaign to inform the public about the elections, Diallo said that both the Ministry and the political parties are responsible for "sensitizing" the population. However, Diallo was referring more to voter education and awareness rather than communication about actual elections preparations and an implementing timeline. He did admit that there is a limit on how long the elections can be delayed before the population will start doubting the electoral process. ¶6. (SBU) Diallo also commented on plans to train and install more police forces before the elections, a perceived need that was articulated by the President of the National Assembly, El Hadj Aboubacar Sompare, when he addressed the National Assembly during the budget session in July. Diallo said that Guinea currently has only two police and two gendarmes for every 300,000 people when according to international standards, that number should support a population of 250 people. The Ministry, which now combines the two functions of Interior and Security, does not yet have a program or funding in place, but Diallo said it is in the works. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT. The submission of the nomination lists by the parties for the CENI is a significant step forward. Hopefully, another meeting between the Ministry of Interior and the parties will resolve lingering disagreements and finally establish the CENI as a functioning body. However, even if the CENI is established in the next few weeks, the December elections timeline is still unrealistic. Effective registration of eligible voters is absolutely critical to ensuring transparency and that process will likely take longer than two months. Diallo is right that the decision is unlikely to be made by his Ministry. Rather, the Prime Minister and political parties will eventually bow to the inevitable and publicly accept a further delay. ¶8. (SBU) Guineans are becoming increasingly frustrated with this lack of progress on elections, which is seen by some as stalling on either the part of the Government or the majority party. Even if it is others who will make the decision on the election date, it is disingenuous on Baillo Diallo's part to imply the Ministry has no part in the eventual decision, since the Ministry (and specifically the old bureaucrat and his party-hack cohorts) have joined others with little interest in elections in dragging their feet rather than acting. The Ministry's lack of communication on the subject is likely to exacerbate popular concerns. ¶9. (SBU) The issue of security for the elections continues to come up. There is no question that Guinea's police forces are inadequate in general and officials continue to say that any new police officers would be put in place not because of the elections, but rather to address a pressing long-term need. However, a concerted CONAKRY 00000924 002 OF 002 effort to increase police forces while preparing for highly anticipated elections could send a very negative message about the role of those police forces. END COMMENT. KAEUPER