SITREP NO. 27: GUINEA GENERAL STRIKE, JAN. 27,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000090 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR AF/W, AF/EX, DS/IP/AF, CA/OCS PLEASE PASS ALSO TO PEACE CORPS, ALSO FOR AID/AA TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC CASC PINS AEMR EAID GV SUBJECT: SITREP NO. 27: GUINEA GENERAL STRIKE, JAN. 27, 1200 GMT REF: CONAKRY 88 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: DCM Julie Winn. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SITUATION ON THE GROUND -------------- ¶1. (C) Conakry is quiet morning of January 27. The general strike nominally continues, as ordered by the union leadership, but we are seeing traffic patterns approaching normal for a Saturday. There are more private vehicles and taxis, as well as a handful of fuel trucks heading for the port to fill up. Many shops and vendors are open, although no large stores have yet opened their front doors. While conditions have relaxed somewhat each weekend since the strike began January 10, they are closer to normal today than over the last two weeks. -------------- POLITICAL UPDATE -------------- ¶2. (C) Yesterday evening, January 26, President Lansana Conte reportedly agreed to appoint a prime minister with "the delegated authorities" of a head of government. We understand he has not/not yet signed any document containing this agreement. Negotiations on the unions' demands reconvened at 1100 hours today at the Palais du People. Both union and government representatives expect to sign an agreement today, but it is not yet clear what the content will be. Senior union leaders say they will suspend the strike thereafter, although some union figures have declared they want to see concrete progress in the negotiations on their other, primarily economic, demands first. The question of who will serve as the prime minister is also unresolved. We continue to believe that this deal is not yet done. ¶3. (C) Late afternoon reports on January 26 suggested that negotiations over the unions' primary political demand, a prime minister as head of government with broad executive powers, had hit a wall. The unions, having briefed their increasingly radicalized membership mid-day, were hard-over that the prime minister must also have the title of head of government. As the day's session began around 1630 hours, labor reps waved a copy of a letter from the public prosecutor announcing an investigation into whether they had broken the laws against personally attacking the president and organizing a non-authorized public demonstration. Union leaders expressed outrage that they were being accused of fomenting unrest that had resulted in death and property damages, insisting it was they who were trying to protect the greater population. They asked how they could maintain faith in the negotiations when some in authority were undermining them. Their government and religious interlocutors took that letter and the draft terms of reference and went to consult with Conte. ¶4. (C) First Lady Henriette Conte was reportedly asked to smooth the road for the delegation, insisting that her husband make some concessions. Our sources confirmed that during the meeting Conte stated that he agrees, in principle, to appoint a prime minister as head of government. Conte asked the government and religious leaders to leave the documents with him -- he would study them closely and sign after receiving proposed names and choosing an individual as prime minister. Subsequently, it was announced on the evening news that Conte had agreed to the formulation in para ¶2. ¶5. (C) Unions and the population greeted the news with excitement. Although it was not in fact the case, the general public understood that Conte signed a decree formally creating a position of prime minister as head of government and that the strike would end. However, union leaders are not yet claiming victory. Amadou Diallo, the number two at CNTG, told Poloff on January 27, "It is too early for celebration. Although we have climbed the highest hurdle, this battle is not over." Diallo said that while negotiations continue on several points, they plan to sign an memorandum of understanding today. Diallo told us he had no idea who would sign for the government, as they remain divided without a recognized leader. He said the unions do not expect Conte to sign. CONAKRY 00000090 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Rabiatou Serah Diallo called Poloff the morning of January 27 to thank the Embassy for "moral support" during the strike. She said they would never have gotten this far without it. When asked about the next step, Rabiatou Diallo said, "The people are tired. We plan to sign an agreement today to avoid any additional bloodshed." The unions indicated their willingness to suspend the strike, recognizing that if the government does not adhere to its agreement, they can resume striking. In sum, they appear to be ready to put an end to this chapter. ¶7. (C) It is unclear how long it will take for Conte to name a prime minister. Progress on the unions political and economic demands still depends on Conte's will to sign and then allow any decision to be implemented. All actors recognize they have been burned before and that Conte has demonstrated a recent penchant for making and then overturning his own decisions. Should this agreement not be all it seems on the surface or should it fall apart, the dismay will be all the greater for the hopes that were raised. -------------- SECURITY POSTURE -------------- ¶8. (C) Post management determined late afternoon January 26 that conditions were calm enough to permit a modified standfast posture for the weekend. Employees and their families may leave their residences, exercising caution, to restock and to visit friends. ¶9. (C) Ambassador, DCM, conoffs and RSO met with wardens at 1100 hours on January 27 to review the political and security situations. About 20 wardens attended. 10, (C) Regional Survey Team (RST),already en route to post (see Sitrep 24),will arrive late this afternoon. MCDONALD