ELECTIONS WATCH - GUINEAN GOVERNMENT MEETS WITH POLITICAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000891 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12598: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: ELECTIONS WATCH - GUINEAN GOVERNMENT MEETS WITH POLITICAL PARTIES REFTEL: CONAKRY 00593 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Government of Guinea (GoG) still officially plans to hold its overdue legislative elections in December. However, as weeks continue to go by with little progress towards an Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI),Guineans are becoming increasingly frustrated by the Government's pace. Leaders from civil society, political parties, and the unions generally agree that the December timeline is unrealistic and have expressed hope that the elections will take place early in the first quarter of 2008. Most agree that free and fair elections are critical to the country's stability and are working independently to ensure transparence. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate met with the heads of political parties July 30 to discuss preparations for the elections. Party leaders reported that the Prime Minister was responsive and committed to getting the CENI in place so that election planning can move forward. Kouyate agreed to meet with party leaders bi-monthly and directed the Minister of Interior to meet with them at least monthly. ¶3. (SBU) In their first meeting with the Ministry of Interior August 2, party leaders were unable to finalize the list of CENI delegates due to disagreements over the distribution of CENI seats. According to law, the majority party (Party of Unity and Progress - PUP) and its allies, represented by La Mouvance Presidentielle (an association of 13 minor political parties) get ten CENI seats. The opposition parties also get ten CENI seats. In addition, civil society gets three seats and GoG administration gets two seats. ¶4. (SBU) Earlier this year, La Mouvance Presidentielle switched allegiance in response to the PUP's naming of controversial Guinean millionaire, El Hadj Mamadou Sylla, as honorary President of the PUP (reftel). La Mouvance's desertion of the PUP spurred opposition party members to argue that the PUP no longer had the backing to justify ten CENI seats. During the August 2 meeting, La Mouvance reportedly rejoined with the PUP, which could help alleviate pressure to redistribute the CENI seats. Despite the re-maneuvering however, the meeting ended without agreement on CENI distribution. In a July 31 meeting, PUP leadership told the Charge that they have already nominated their ten delegates and are waiting for the other parties to name theirs. ¶5. (SBU) Despite delays in getting the CENI organized, party leaders from both the majority and the opposition seem committed to ensuring free and fair elections as soon as possible. A meeting between the PUP, Charge and Pol/Econ Chief July 31 included high-ranking party leaders Elhadj Sekou Konate, PUP General Secretary and Elhadj Thierno Diallo, President of the PUP SIPDIS Parliamentary Group at the National Assembly, as well as several members of the PUP's Executive Board. The PUP told the Charge that transparent elections are critical to the overall stability of the country and that they will do their best to ensure a peaceful election process. They identified adequate security forces as an important element of this process in order to provide adequate protection to voters. ¶6. (SBU) The stated need for additional security forces echoes on comments made by the President of the National Assembly, El Hadj Aboubacar Sompare, in a July 24 meeting with the Charge, who said that without security forces on the ground, the country could erupt into civil war. Sompare cited ethnic divisions between the parties and throughout the country as a possible flashpoint for violence although he acknowledged that religion plays a tempering role by advocating for peace. Sompare, a leader in the PUP, opined that the legislative elections are unlikely to bring fundamental change. Some opposition party representatives caution that additional security forces could intimidate voters to vote in favor of the ruling party. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT. Scheduling the elections hinges on officially establishing the CENI. While most contacts agree that December is unrealistic, the GoG continues to hold to that timeline and is likely waiting for the CENI to develop a realistic timeframe with a definitive election schedule. However, as December approaches and no new election dates are announced, the general population is likely to become more agitated. People are committed to free and fair elections and they seem willing to wait for them until early next year if doing so will help ensure that the process will be transparent. Establishing the CENI at the national level and then effectively communicating the timeline and preparations to the general population would do much to alleviate growing concerns, a view we are pressing with all participants. ¶8. (SBU) In addition to the national CENI, electoral commissions will also need to be established at the regional, prefecture, and sub-prefecture levels. Recent visits to neighboring prefectures of Fria and Forecariah and contacts with both prefects indicate their familiarity with technical election requirements and concern about corresponding lack of budget support at sub-prefectorial and CONAKRY 00000891 002 OF 002 communal levels. END COMMENT. KAEUPER