SITREP NO. 26: GUINEA GENERAL STRIKE, JAN. 26,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000088

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR AF/W, AF/EX, DS/IP/AF, CA/OCS
PLEASE PASS ALSO TO PEACE CORPS, ALSO FOR AID/AA
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC CASC PINS AEMR EAID GV
SUBJECT: SITREP NO. 26: GUINEA GENERAL STRIKE, JAN. 26,
1300 GMT

REF: CONAKRY 82 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: DCM Julie Winn, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SITUATION ON THE GROUND
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1. (C) Guinea's general strike continues as the country
awaits an outcome to ongoing negotiations to settle union
(and popular) demands. After two days in which only one
minor security incident took place in Conakry, the morning of
January 26 has seen renewed rock-throwing on the
Hamdallaye-Bambeto-Coza axis and along the Bambeto-airport
connecting road. The rest of the city has been quiet. There
were some localized celebrations, even dancing in the street,
late January 25 as supporters of one potential prime
ministerial candidate or another heard (unfounded) rumors
their man had been selected. As was the case January 25,
there are more private vehicles and pedestrians in the
streets today, and noticeably more taxis, although traffic
patterns are not normal. The security presence is similar to
that of the last several days. A few shops were open the
afternoon of January 25, and some remain open today. Large
stores, businesses, banks, etc. remain closed.

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POLITICAL UPDATE
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2. (C) The ad-hoc committee (reftel) charged with drafting a
legal framework for a prime minister as head of government
adjourned late January 25 with a draft text still under hot
debate. Despite internet articles to the contrary, they have
not reached agreement among themselves. They are to
reconvene at 1500 today. Government and union
representatives are far from reaching consensus on the terms
of reference. Despite the celebrations mentioned above,
there has been no formal discussion or negotiation on
potential candidates for the job. Until Conte signs a decree
and a prime minister is in place, the unions will maintain
the strike.


3. (C) Beginning at approximately 1200 hours on January 25,
the ad hoc commission of representatives from all branches of
government (including the National Assembly, Supreme Court,
Economic and Social Council, and executive officials) worked
separately from union representatives at the Palais du Peuple
to draft terms of reference. They were joined at about 1800
hours by a wider group, engaging in "difficult discussions
and negotiations," but making little headway. By the end of
the session at 2130 hours, they produced two working
documents: a draft bill to create the post of prime minister
as chief of government, and a corresponding presidential
decree that describes the functions of the job.


4. (C) Working drafts envision a prime minister who would
lead and coordinate all government action, assuring the
execution of laws and the national defense. This person
would, among other prerogatives:
-- Stand in for the President of the Republic in presiding
over the cabinet meeting and meetings of the High National
Defense Committee;
-- Choose all ministers, dismiss them on his own authority;
delegate powers to them;
-- Sign all official acts which would be co-signed by the
minister charged with their execution;
-- Have regulatory power and appoint the holders of both
civilian and military posts.


5. (C) As drafted, the documents would create a prime
minister with full executive powers, un-tethered by the head
of state, with heretofore unheard of power over national
defense and, by extension, all branches of the military. The
commission remains deadlocked over the content of these
documents. It is surprising that the document made it this
far as written, even in draft form. Most Guineans who have
been privy to these discussions believe that Conte will never
agree to these terms.


6. (C) We agree: Conte will never relinquish this much
power, if any at all.


7. (C) The public is anxiously awaiting the outcome of the
negotiations. On January 25, some Guineans celebrated rumors

CONAKRY 00000088 002 OF 002


that Sidya Toure was named as prime minister. Toure has told
us on many occasions he would never accept the job (again)
under Conte, although we believe he might consider it if
Conte really were to sign off on the job on the terms set
forth in the draft documents. Other names in circulation
include former ECOWAS Executive Secretary Lansana Kouyate,
former Central Bank Governor Kerfalla Yansane, former Prime
Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, and Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Mamady Conde.
All is speculation, however -- the commission has not even
formally begun discussions of potential consensus candidates.
In a communique January 25, union leaders cautioned that
while there is a ray of hope, things are far from settled.

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SECURITY POSTURE
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8. (C) Per State 9937, Washington has authorized departure
of EFMs (only). We have notified official Americans. Two
spouses and four children have elected to depart at this time
(details follow septel). The Mission and families at home
remain at standfast. If security conditions allow, we will
again, as we did the last two weekends, relax restrictions to
allow people to restock supplies and to visit one another.


9. (SBU) The Consular Section has issued a warden notice
informing private American citizens of our current posture,
i.e., authorized departure for EFMs. We are inviting wardens
to a town hall meeting tomorrow, January 27, providing the
security climate in Conakry permits their safe movement.

MCDONALD