SITREP NO. 26: GUINEA GENERAL STRIKE, JAN. 26,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000088 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR AF/W, AF/EX, DS/IP/AF, CA/OCS PLEASE PASS ALSO TO PEACE CORPS, ALSO FOR AID/AA TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC CASC PINS AEMR EAID GV SUBJECT: SITREP NO. 26: GUINEA GENERAL STRIKE, JAN. 26, 1300 GMT REF: CONAKRY 82 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: DCM Julie Winn, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SITUATION ON THE GROUND -------------- ¶1. (C) Guinea's general strike continues as the country awaits an outcome to ongoing negotiations to settle union (and popular) demands. After two days in which only one minor security incident took place in Conakry, the morning of January 26 has seen renewed rock-throwing on the Hamdallaye-Bambeto-Coza axis and along the Bambeto-airport connecting road. The rest of the city has been quiet. There were some localized celebrations, even dancing in the street, late January 25 as supporters of one potential prime ministerial candidate or another heard (unfounded) rumors their man had been selected. As was the case January 25, there are more private vehicles and pedestrians in the streets today, and noticeably more taxis, although traffic patterns are not normal. The security presence is similar to that of the last several days. A few shops were open the afternoon of January 25, and some remain open today. Large stores, businesses, banks, etc. remain closed. -------------- POLITICAL UPDATE -------------- ¶2. (C) The ad-hoc committee (reftel) charged with drafting a legal framework for a prime minister as head of government adjourned late January 25 with a draft text still under hot debate. Despite internet articles to the contrary, they have not reached agreement among themselves. They are to reconvene at 1500 today. Government and union representatives are far from reaching consensus on the terms of reference. Despite the celebrations mentioned above, there has been no formal discussion or negotiation on potential candidates for the job. Until Conte signs a decree and a prime minister is in place, the unions will maintain the strike. ¶3. (C) Beginning at approximately 1200 hours on January 25, the ad hoc commission of representatives from all branches of government (including the National Assembly, Supreme Court, Economic and Social Council, and executive officials) worked separately from union representatives at the Palais du Peuple to draft terms of reference. They were joined at about 1800 hours by a wider group, engaging in "difficult discussions and negotiations," but making little headway. By the end of the session at 2130 hours, they produced two working documents: a draft bill to create the post of prime minister as chief of government, and a corresponding presidential decree that describes the functions of the job. ¶4. (C) Working drafts envision a prime minister who would lead and coordinate all government action, assuring the execution of laws and the national defense. This person would, among other prerogatives: -- Stand in for the President of the Republic in presiding over the cabinet meeting and meetings of the High National Defense Committee; -- Choose all ministers, dismiss them on his own authority; delegate powers to them; -- Sign all official acts which would be co-signed by the minister charged with their execution; -- Have regulatory power and appoint the holders of both civilian and military posts. ¶5. (C) As drafted, the documents would create a prime minister with full executive powers, un-tethered by the head of state, with heretofore unheard of power over national defense and, by extension, all branches of the military. The commission remains deadlocked over the content of these documents. It is surprising that the document made it this far as written, even in draft form. Most Guineans who have been privy to these discussions believe that Conte will never agree to these terms. ¶6. (C) We agree: Conte will never relinquish this much power, if any at all. ¶7. (C) The public is anxiously awaiting the outcome of the negotiations. On January 25, some Guineans celebrated rumors CONAKRY 00000088 002 OF 002 that Sidya Toure was named as prime minister. Toure has told us on many occasions he would never accept the job (again) under Conte, although we believe he might consider it if Conte really were to sign off on the job on the terms set forth in the draft documents. Other names in circulation include former ECOWAS Executive Secretary Lansana Kouyate, former Central Bank Governor Kerfalla Yansane, former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Mamady Conde. All is speculation, however -- the commission has not even formally begun discussions of potential consensus candidates. In a communique January 25, union leaders cautioned that while there is a ray of hope, things are far from settled. -------------- SECURITY POSTURE -------------- ¶8. (C) Per State 9937, Washington has authorized departure of EFMs (only). We have notified official Americans. Two spouses and four children have elected to depart at this time (details follow septel). The Mission and families at home remain at standfast. If security conditions allow, we will again, as we did the last two weekends, relax restrictions to allow people to restock supplies and to visit one another. ¶9. (SBU) The Consular Section has issued a warden notice informing private American citizens of our current posture, i.e., authorized departure for EFMs. We are inviting wardens to a town hall meeting tomorrow, January 27, providing the security climate in Conakry permits their safe movement. MCDONALD