GUINEA'S CRISIS IS FAR FROM OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CONAKRY 000710 SIPDIS SIPDIS TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB KDEM SOCI GV SUBJECT: GUINEA'S CRISIS IS FAR FROM OVER REF: CONAKRY 593 Classified By: Political Officer Jessica Davis Ba. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Over the last six months, Guinea has experienced one of the most tumultuous periods in its history. The popular social movement that swept through the nation demonstrated the power of the streets to effectuate change, yet there have been few transformations in the daily functioning of the state. While Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate continues to enjoy popular support, President Lansana Conte maintains his strong hold on power and Conte's inner circle continues to block fundamental reforms. The "consensus" cabinet has become a thin facade for a dysfunctional government that has neither been restructured nor reformed to reflect a new vision embodied by the Prime Minister. Kouyate has failed to get staffing approved for his ministries and there have been no new governors, prefects, or sub-prefects put into place to administer the rest of the nation. In most government offices, activities are at a standstill. There is a clear power struggle as the Prime Minister attempts to get his people on board, while Conte and his clan maintain their coterie in the positions that count. ¶2. (C) In this context, the population is once again becoming impatient. With unrealistically high expectations for the "consensus" government, many have expressed disappointment with persistent blockages and lack of concrete results. Increasingly, Guineans are identifying President Conte as the root of all problems. As Prime Minister Kouyate returned from an apparently successful trip to the U.S., France, and Libya, Conte proclaimed his position as "chief" with all others his "subordinates". Although there are currently a divisions among the labor unions, civil society, and the political parties, with each fighting over what role they should play, all agree that the current situation will inevitably lead to another crisis. With a re-alignment of opposition parties and a fragmented PUP, Guinea's political class is planning for next steps. With elections still months away, most Guineans predict that "something" has to happen in order to break the log jam that currently plagues the nation. End Summary. -------------- First 100 Days Yield Few Reforms -------------- ¶3. (C) After taking an extended period of time to name his cabinet, Prime Minister Kouyate finally announced ON MARCH 28 the names of the individuals who would lead the "consensus" government. In the three months since the appointments, the Prime Minister has been extremely visible and open with communications, but with few concrete results. While Kouyate streamlined and re-organized the ministries, no administrative staffing changes have been made, even within the Prime Minister's own office. In some cases (like the Ministry of Education),there remain three secretaries general and all the directorates and divisions remain exactly as they were within the old government structure. In the ministries, most of the leadership is convinced they will lose their jobs, and staff does not know to whom to report. In most offices, work is at a standstill with no clearly delineated roles and responsibilities. While the Prime Minister and his cabinet concluded their recent retreat with a list of priorities (reftel),it is difficult to see how any progress can be made toward them given the current situation with regard to staffing and appointments. Average citizens have begun to question whether they will enjoy the "fruits" of their demands for change during the January-February general strike or whether the sacrifices were all in vain. ¶4. (C) When Kouyate entered office, he promised to re-instate control over the administration of the state and to repair the destruction that took place in "30 of Guinea's 33 prefectures." To date, the Prime Minister has still not named the governors, prefects, and sub-prefects to administer the interior. Kouyate has reportedly presented numerous lists to President Conte, with each being systematically rejected. Guineans regard these appointments as a litmus test for the Prime Minister. Without state administrators, many have argued that no reconstruction or development efforts can be implemented and that election preparations cannot even begin. While the Prime Minister still enjoys widespread public support in the interior, our contacts have CONAKRY 00000710 002 OF 004 told us that in most areas, the population is becoming increasingly restless and question whether the Prime Minister is able lead Guinea through this transitional period. -------------- I am Still In Charge -------------- ¶5. (C) At the same time that the Prime Minister was wrapping up his recent trip to the U.S., France, and Libya, President Conte was flexing his muscle back at home. While Guineans wait to hear the results of the visits abroad, they were instead reminded of Conte's hold over the state. In an impromptu interview with AFP on June 15, President Conte made it clear that he has not conceded his power to the Prime Minister. When asked by the reporter whether one can speak of a transition period, Conte emphatically replied, "there is no transition in Guinea. I am the chief, the others are my deputies and my subordinates. That's all! There is no transition here!" Conte downplayed Guinea's recent crisis as a moment provoked by misunderstandings that are now in its past -- problems that exist in all democratic nations. The interview took place when Conte dropped in on his close friend and ally, controversial businessman, Futurelec president, and honorary president of the majority PUP party Mamadou Sylla. ¶6. (C) While both Conte and Kouyate publicly state that relations between them are good, many insiders have told us that tensions are high. Former Prime Minister and opposition leader Sidya Toure told Poloff in a recent meeting that Kouyate has failed by not marking his territory clearly and early. Toure said that it is already too late and that it was just a matter of time before Kouyate either quits or is either dismissed. In his interview, Presdient Conte alluded to the familiar fate of his past prime ministers: "If I name one, it is because I want one. If not, I have always led Guinea without a Prime Minister. Sometimes, I take one and we do not get along and he goes -- it is he who goes. Me, I stay." Some have begun to speculate how long Prime Minister Kouyate can fight against the tide. President Conte and his coterie continue to pull the strings behind the scenes and have effectively stymied any advances or reforms that the Prime Minister and his cabinet attempt. -------------- -------------- Political Positioning and Strengthened Opposition -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) As the "consensus" government struggles to hit its stride, the popular consensus among civil society, unions, party members, and average citizens that brought it to power has disintegrated. While the unions clearly took the lead during the general strike and protests of January-February, they were backed by opposition party leaders who encouraged their constituents to support the movement. Now, there are accusations going in all directions about the roles and responsibilities of civil society at large versus the political class. Political parties have made it clear that Guinea's constitution only allows them to present candidates for election. By using this argument, they have attempted to discredit the ascension of the Prime Minister, describing Kouyate as isolated with no political base. At the same time, there is a common belief that civil society leaders stepped into a void and succeeding where political parties have failed. ¶8. (C) As political parties attempt to redefine themselves and prepare to participate in the electoral process, the opposition is gaining steam. Upon the announcement of Mamadou Sylla as honorary president of the majority PUP party, most of the smaller parties allied with the PUP broke rank (reftel). These parties known as the "Mouvance" are now aligned with the major opposition leaders. In May, 14 parties from the Mouvance joined Sidya Toure's Union of Republican Forces (UFR) to create the National Alliance for Democracy (ANAD) that Toure claims is also allied with other major opposition leaders. Also in May, eleven parties from the Mouvance aligned with Alpha Conde and his Rally of Guinean People (RPG) to create the Coalition of Live Forces for Change. Parliamentary opposition leader Ousmane Bah, President of the Union for Progress and Renewal (UPR),told Poloff that his party is still in negotiation with others to form yet another coalition. These new political alliances reflect a stronger and more mature opposition, positioning itself to have much greater influence in the legislative elections. All are talking seriously about the ramifications of legislative elections, particularly how to make the National Assembly a true counterweight to the regime and CONAKRY 00000710 003 OF 004 using it to constitutionally change the pendulum of power. -------------- Living Conditions Degrade and Prices Rise -------------- ¶9. (C) While political positioning continues, the "bread-and-butter" issues that face the majority of the population are far from resolved. Economic conditions remain dire and, for many, it remains a daily struggle to feed their families. Guinea's citizens believed the appointment of a Prime Minister as Head of Government would automatically create the conditions necessary to improve their quality of life. While Kouyate emphasizes the provision of water and electricity as his most urgent priorities, few improvements have been made in either sector. Some complain that the public utilities have even worsened. While most understand that an overhaul of the public utilities will take time, Kouyate's team has failed to deliver immediate fixes or a concrete plan of action to address these basic services. ¶10. (C) Part of the January strike settlement was to fix the prices of basic necessities and to ban exports of foodstuffs and other products the unions argued should remain in the local market. Although prices initially decreased, Guineans have now begun to complain about their steady rise. The CNTG-USTG union coalition has begun to make clear statements demanding lower prices. On June 19, the Prime Minister met with the interministerial committee responsible for price controls to discuss measures to decrease the prices of essential food items. The committee adopted a measure to more strongly enforce the export ban on food items, timber, and petroleum products. Now that Guinea's rainy season has begun, the population is bracing for the increases in food prices that normally occur at this time of year. However, they are now calling into force the signed agreement on price levels and demanding that the government do its part to maintain prices that are blow normal market values. Some union leaders have told us that if the government does not uphold its side of the negotiated agreement, they will once again begin strike preparations. -------------- Ethnic Card Increasingly Played -------------- ¶11. (C) In the midst of the growing uncertainty, in recent weeks, anonymous and virulently discriminatory papers "documenting" various plots by ethnic groups to keep or gain power have made their rounds in Guinea's major cities. These ethnic tracts accuse one ethnic group of using the strikes and related violence to gain advantage over another in securing its hold on power. In a recent meeting with the Ambassador, President of the National Assembly Aboubacar Sompare employed an over-simplistic ethnic model to describe the current climate. Sompare claimed that there would be no more strikes because the Soussou ethnic group realized that recent events disadvantaged them -- they would throw their support behind Conte to ensure their position. ¶12. (C) Public discussion of the "ethnic factor" is no longer taboo. Sompare's comments reflect a growing trend by entrenched members of Guinea's old school political class as they revert to old ways of thinking and doing business. While most Guineans refuse to play the ethnic card, they acknowledge that powerful actors are trying to use these divisions to prevent any new wave of united popular action. At present, Conte loyalists (many of whom found their property under attack by violent mobs in February) are now beginning to re-emerge and make their presence felt. -------------- Comment: This is Not Finished -------------- ¶13. (C) In what has become a familiar refrain, Guineans of every stripe have told us the popular movement unleashed at the beginning of the year is far from over. Despite Conte's assurances that Guinea's problems are all now in its past, all indications are that tensions are on the rise as the "old guard" and the "reformers" continue their battle for the future direction of Guinea. Despite his best efforts, Prime Minister Kouyate has thus far not shown that he can keep the forces of the past at bay. With growing pressure for concrete action, Kouyate's team has produced few results. With frustrations rising, the population has started preparing for what they feel is an inevitable next phase of Guinea's crisis. Some have predicted that it might be unleashed with a new strike that may gain momentum in CONAKRY 00000710 004 OF 004 September while others believe that the legislative elections may become the next flash point. While the time frame remains unclear, there is an almost unanimous belief that "something" will happen. ¶14. (C) Increasingly, Guinean citizens are once again voicing their belief that President Conte is the main source of Guinea's problems. Many have expressed their support of Prime Minister Kouyate's capacity and in the ability of most (but not all) members of the Prime Minister's team. They insist that the cabinet is unable to work because of systematic roadblocks set by Conte and his coterie. Others insist that no matter how capable Kouyate mayt be, the Prime Minister is merely a puppet being controlled by Guinea's entrenched interests. While political opposition, union, and civil society leaders are posturing, it is unclear who might take the first step to re-ignite the movement for change. Over the next few months, it remains to be seen if the Prime Minister can assert his leadership or who might step in to fill the void. MCDONALD