NO SOLUTION YET FOR MILITARY CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000503 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV ASEC PINS MARR GV SUBJECT: NO SOLUTION YET FOR MILITARY CRISIS REF: A. CONAKRY 493 ¶B. CONAKRY 501 Classified By: Political Officer Jessica Davis Ba. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Although Guinea's Prime Minister has led efforts to resolve the crisis within the Guinean military (Ref A),the government has yet to announce a satisfactory solution. The National Council of Defense and Security has met several times over the last few days, with senior military leaders conferring with Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate and the Minister of Finance, Economy and Planning, and Minister of Interior and Security. While President Lansana Conte chairs the Council, he has not been present during any of the discussions. To calm the troops, the military is proposing to promote all mid-ranked military personnel, a measure that the Prime Minister and his cabinet maintains the country cannot afford. There is no agreement on removing key senior officers, as the soldiers have demanded. While the soldiers' primary demands are focused on fundamental changes in military leadership, to date the proposed solutions are based on raising salaries. Military and civilian leaders remain hopeful for a peaceful resolution. While the soldiers are calm at present and have not set any public deadlines, they are growing impatient. Without an adequate government response, military personnel intend to re-engage in protest activities, although we are unaware of any specific plans. End Summary. -------------- Soldiers Calm, But Armories Are Empty -------------- ¶2. (C) The military crisis that has seized the attention of Guinea's senior leaders (Ref A) remains unresolved. Since May 4, we have received no reports of protests on military bases or in other locations by members of Guinea's armed forces. Although there was a flare up among local community guards in Conakry (Ref B),they too remain calm. In N'Zerekore on May 6-7, the population sought retribution against soldiers who looted stores. Civilians went door-to-door, without warrants and unaccompanied by security or justice personnel, searching soldiers' homes for stolen goods. In some cases, the homes were ransacked in the process. Some stolen goods were recovered and returned to the store's owners. There have been no recent reports of injuries. At present, the situation remains calm but tenuous on military bases and barracks nationwide. ¶3. (C) Military sources confirmed to us that, during the May 2-3 protests, military personnel looted the arms stores on most military bases. A colonel told us that Guinea's armories are now empty and that military officials do not have information on the location of the weaponry and ammunition. We were told that the fact of the "missing" arms makes any negotiations of the crisis more difficult -- in particular the restructuring of the armed forces that the soldiers are demanding. No specific person has emerged to champion the soldier's plight, although a Lieutenant Abdoul Gadiri Diallo strongly voiced the personnel's concerns during their May 4 meeting with the Prime Minister. Since May 4, there has been no large meeting between the Prime Minister, his cabinet and the military rank-and-file. -------------- Negotiations Are Not Yet Bearing Fruit -------------- ¶4. (C) The majority of the discussions on this military-military issue are taking place within the restrained membership of the National Council of Defense and Security. While this Council is nominally chaired by President Conte, he has not been present at any of the many meetings over the last few days. While senior military officers typically lead the meetings, they have been doing so with Prime Minister Kouyate, Minister of Economy, Finance, and Planning Ousmane Dore, and Minister of Interior and Security Mohamed Bo Keita actively involved. We understand that in order to bring immediate calm, the military has proposed promoting the mid-rank military personnel who did not receive any of the benefits that the more junior and more senior personnel enjoyed with the February promotions that Conte instituted to calm discontent bubbling up within the military at that time. ¶5. (C) The proposed promotions would increase salaries for CONAKRY 00000503 002 OF 002 these soldiers from a base of 80,000 GNF (approximately 26 USD) to 320,000 GNF (approximately 106 USD). While the promotions would be based on grade, the average mid-ranked soldier would gain between 150,000 GNF (approximately 46 USD) to 300,000 GNF (approximately 95 USD) per month. The Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance reportedly are rejecting the idea outright because of its implication for a national budget that already has a financing gap of at least 30 million USD. We understand the Prime Minister also has said that these salary increases are untenable and would set the stage for a series of salary demands that the government is in no position to meet ¶6. (C) Sources close to Prime Minister Kouyate told us that if it were up to him, he would begin with the dismissal of the senior military leaders and address pay issues secondarily. However, the senior military representatives (who all would be at risk of losing their jobs),are dismissing this approach because the current uncertainty would make any additional changes "too delicate." Another point that the military said would be absolutely non-negotiable is the re-instatement of salaries and benefits for officers involved in the 1996 mutiny. Our interlocutors said that Conte would never, ever accept this demand being made by the soldiers. -------------- General Remains Hopeful for a Resolution -------------- ¶7. (C) The morning of May 9, General Kaba "43" Camara, Army Chief of Staff, dropped by the embassy unannounced to discuss an unrelated matter. (General Camara is seeking DOD humanitarian assistance to construct a health dispensary near his village in Beyla in the Forest Region.) The Ambassador and the DATT took advantage of General Camara's visit to probe about the ongoing crisis within the military. General Camara responded cautiously, noting that there was a "lack of understanding" between the military command and subordinate military personnel. The Ambassador stated that he hoped this military matter could be resolved quickly so that it would not destabilize Guinea just as it starts on a new course toward reform. Camara clamed to be hopeful that a resolution could be found, but he gave us no reason to believe his hopes were well-founded. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Our interlocutors both in and outside of the military share General Camara's optimism and respond to our inquires with the refrain that this military issue must be resolved quickly. However, it appears there is no immediate solution in sight. There is no money in Guinea's coffers to appease the soldiers. Even if the government were to find a short-term fix, the national budget could not support any increased military spending on salaries. Although the soldiers would welcome more money, their core protest was against the endemic corruption at top levels of the military. The National Council of Defense and Security does not appear to be seriously considering the soldier's demand to remove key officers (all of whom are part of the Council). Neither Guinea's civilian leaders nor senior military officers have a solution for the crisis. While they have remained quiet, the military rank-and-file will not accept a deadlock and are expecting some immediate concrete response. MCDONALD