GUINEA: RECOMMENDATION ON ORDERED DEPARTURE

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000348 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS FROM THE AMBASSADOR DEPT FOR M, CA/OCS, DS/CC, DS/IP/AF, AF/W, AF/EX PLEASE PASS ALSO TO AID/AA/AF AND PEACE CORPS TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF FOREIGN NATIONS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: AMGT ASEC CASC PREL PINR GV SUBJECT: GUINEA: RECOMMENDATION ON ORDERED DEPARTURE REF: A. STATE 21638 ¶B. CONAKRY 200 ¶1. (SBU) Given continued uncertainty surrounding Guinea's near-term future, I am unable, as of March 23, to recommend that the ordered departure for EFMs be lifted. We expect President Lansana Conte to issue a decree naming a new cabinet of ministers soon. If he does so in the coming days and if our assessment is that the new ministerial line-up is broadly acceptable to the Guinean public, I may follow up to explore lifting ordered departure before the end of an additional 30-day period. ¶2. (SBU) The U.S. Mission's Emergency Action Committee (EAC) met this morning, March 23, to review security conditions and to determine whether to recommend that ordered departure status for EFMs, which expires March 26, be lifted or extended. ¶3. (SBU) The EAC agreed all were eager to lift ordered departure, but the EAC also recommended unanimously against doing so at this time. Since an ECOWAS delegation brokered an agreement that led to the naming of a new "prime minister of consensus" and an end to the general strike, security conditions have been calm throughout the country. Stores, businesses, and government offices have been open, transportation normal, and all schools open (including the International School and French Lycee). ¶4. (SBU) That said, Guinea's political situation remains tenuous. President Lansana Conte has not yet named a new broad-based government, as promised in the ECOWAS-brokered accord of February 25. Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate has been in place almost a month and has been consulting widely with all sectors of society. Unions, civil society, and the general public agree that the new ministerial roster must represent a complete break with the past, with no current ministers retained and no one suspected of corruption given a nod. All indications are that the population will react promptly and violently if Conte names an unacceptable government. On February 9, Guineans took to the streets within hours of Conte's naming Eugene Camara -- an unpopular choice -- as prime minister. ¶5. (SBU) Under these circumstances, I cannot recommend lifting ordered departure as of today. An announcement on the new government could come as early as this weekend. As soon as a government is named and we are able to assess its make-up, I will be in a better position to determine if, in fact, the security outlook in Guinea will permit the return of EFMs. MCDONALD