TFGV01: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DISAVOWS PRESIDENT CONTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000235 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR GUINEA TASK FORCE, AF/W, AF/EX, CA/OCS, DS/IP/AF PLEASE ALSO PASS TO AID/AFR, PEACE CORPS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINS ASEC CASC AEMR GV SUBJECT: TFGV01: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DISAVOWS PRESIDENT CONTE REF: CONAKRY 229 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: DCM Julie Winn, Reason 1.4 (b,d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Guinea is in flux politically as key players struggle to absorb the implications of several developments February ¶23. The National Assembly, for the first time ever, unanimously defeated a Conte initiative by rejecting extension of the state of siege. Chief of Defense Staff General Kerfalla Camara did not permit this check to prevent a preplanned demand that all workers return to their jobs February 26. These two acts took place as a high-level ECOWAS delegation pursued an intensive round of discussions, begun the day before, with the government, labor unions, political parties, civil society, and the military. For the moment, the streets are peaceful and busier than they have been for some time. The legislature's rejection of the state of siege is a significant, perhaps even lethal, blow to the Conte regime, but it is not immediately mortal. End Summary. -------------- National Assembly Says "No" -------------- ¶2. (C) The National Assembly dealt a firm and unprecedented rebuke to President Lansana Conte February 23. Called into special session to extend the state of siege in effect since February 12, they refused -- unanimously -- to do so. This marks the first time the National Assembly has ever rejected a proposal by Conte. All observers expected the legislature, hitherto a bastion of Conte support through its majority PUP membership, to rubber-stamp the extension. Instead, leaders of both PUP and UPR, the Assembly's only opposition party, gave declarations supporting an end to the state of siege. ¶3. (C) After a delayed opening of the session and an immediate suspension for consultations, UPR chair Ousmane Bah led off with a fiery but anticipated speech in which he denounced the government's role in the crisis, saluted the popular will and rejected any extension of the state of siege. ¶4. (C) PUP parliamentary chief Banire Diallo also opened as expected, with a denunciation of the vandalism during the strike, and homage to President Conte and the security forces for restoring order and peace. He closed, however, by suggesting that "he did not think it good to continue the state of siege." To the surprise of most Guineans, other PUP deputies immediately stepped forward to decry his final statement -- because it was too weak. They declared angrily that the caucus had agreed PUP would "demand" a rejection of the extension request. The ensuing celebratory pandemonium made clear that the Assembly's refusal to vote an extension was unanimous. (Comment: Opposition leader Sidya Toure told Ambassador late February 23 that PUP deputies had been inundated by text messages from their districts suggesting that if they did not reject the state of siege, they should not bother coming home. In some cases the message was expanded to include the threat that their homes would no longer exist, a reference to crowd action two weeks ago targeting properties belonging to officials of the Conte government.) ¶5. (C) The deputies, at the behest of Assembly President Aboubacar Sompare, decided to vote on an affirmative resolution before closing the session. In that bill, which reflects some compromises, they recommended against a continued state of siege, complimented the head of state for his wise handling of the crisis, complimented Sompare and others for their role in facilitating dialogue, condemned the violence and vandalism committed on all sides, thanked the population for respecting the state of siege while it was in effect, and invited the unions to consider lifting the general strike. -------------- MEANWHILE DIALOGUE AND TALKS CONTINUE -------------- ¶6. (C) As the National Assembly pursued its special session, the ECOWAS delegation, led by former Nigerian President Babingida accompanied by ECOWAS Executive Secretary Chambas, CONAKRY 00000235 002 OF 003 met with key actors. An ECOWAS rep sat in on the National Assembly session. Meanwhile, Babangida and his delegation met with the Prime Minister, key ministers, the labor unions, political parties (both majority and opposition),civil society, and the military. ¶7. (C) CNTG president Rabiatou Serah Diallo told us she felt for the first time, following a long meeting with the ECOWAS group, that there was a way out of the current crisis. Talking through Guinea's plight with the ECOWAS delegation had provided a sense of progress. These parties are scheduled to meet again February 24. Rabiatou Diallo is somewhat concerned that ECOWAS may press for an acceptance of Eugene Camara as Prime Minister, since they have had impressed on them that Conte will not back down on this point. She notes that the unions will not back down either. Another union representative, Taibou Diallo, told us that the leadership has been informed by its membership (including through threats) that this is a redline. ¶8. (C) Union leaders are continuing their dialogue with Sompare, religious leaders, and regional representatives from all parts of the country, including traditional local leaders and wise men -------------- KERFALLA SHOOTS ACROSS THE BOW -------------- ¶9. (C) With one big exception, little has trickled out on the government's reaction, or that of President Conte, to the National Assembly action. Calls Friday afternoon to military sources yielded uncertainty at the higher levels and a "it's a political matter" shrug at some lower levels. There did not appear to be a "Plan B" with regard to the state of siege. ¶10. (C) Nonetheless, as deputies, unions and civil society celebrated an historic break with the past, the old school fired a shot across their bow. On the evening radio and television news, Chief of Defense Staff General Kerfalla Camara issued a demand that all workers, public and private, return to work Monday, February 26. ¶11. (C) Kerfalla read a declaration, in his own name, that cited without comment the fact that the state of siege expired by its terms February 23. He made no mention of the National Assembly's refusal to extend it. He listed events and acts since the January 10 start of the current strike, including the January 27 tripartite agreement. He concluded that since President Conte had appointed a Prime Minister who met union demands, there remained no basis for a general strike. Accordingly, he invited all workers to return to their jobs Monday. He emphasized in particular the need for the education sector to be up and running in time for students to resume class on Thursday March 1. He concluded by stressing the military's commitment to provide security for the people. ¶12. (C) Although the operative paragraph used the word "invite," Kerfalla prefaced this by using the term "requisition," with the connotation "commandeer." Kerfala apparently read a text prepared before the National Assembly vote, although it was tweaked thereafter to note the end of the state of siege. We had heard about it early February 23. It is being treated by the unions and other actors as a deliberate provocation and an act without legal authority. Union sources (supported by other contacts who have weighed in) tell us no one will return to work on Monday. Labor leadership is worried that Kerfalla's declaration may be intended to provoke unrest, giving an excuse for another crackdown. ¶13. (C) Kerfalla's declaration was carried on both radio and television. The National Assembly's resolution was read on television, but not on any national radio broadcast. Few Guineans have access to television, but most have radio available. ¶14. (C) The military put up its usual checkpoints around Conakry at 1800 February 23; presumably the state of siege lasted until midnight. Despite the nominal curfew, however, there was noticeably more traffic, vehicular and pedestrian, into the mid-evening. Traffic February 24 is close to normal for a Saturday morning, with no extraordinary security visible. CONAKRY 00000235 003 OF 003 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶15. (C) The surprise action by the National Assembly constitutes a serious blow to the Conte regime. While not immediately mortal, it is yet another signal that Conte has lost the population --- and now even the support of his own party. We do not believe that it was only fear of the local consequences that prompted PUP members of parliament to reject the state of siege unanimously, although that might have been a motivating factor for some. More, it was the unanimity of the population itself across the country that demanded a similar unanimity in the legislature. We do not believe, however, (and our conclusion is supported by Kerfalla's decree the night of February 23) that the regime will concede to the people and the legislature. We are not even sure that they recognize the severity of the blow. MCDONALD