TFGV01: SITREP 48: GUINEA UNREST, FEB. 22, 2007,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000224 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR GUINEA TASK FORCE, AF/W, AF/EX, CA/OCS, DS/IP/AF PLEASE ALSO PASS TO AID/AFR, PEACE CORPS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV ASEC CASC ELAB PINS AEMR GV SUBJECT: TFGV01: SITREP 48: GUINEA UNREST, FEB. 22, 2007, 1500 GMT REF: CONAKRY 215 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: PolOff Jessica Davis Ba, Reason 1.4 (b,d) -------------- Situation on the Ground -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Conakry remains calm, with no security incidents reported. Deployment of security forces remains at a reduced level compared to last week. Pedestrian and vehicular traffic is again at moderate levels. Some small shops are open while the larger food markets continue to do so through the back door. The informal market activity necessary to support the day-to-day living of most Guineans remains the only economic activity. -------------- Political Update -------------- ¶2. (C) On February 21, Prime Minister Eugene Camara presided over a day-long meeting of the Council for National Defense, a periodic group representing various ministries, generally called together in time of crisis. The Council reportedly decided to extend the state of siege for 12 additional days. During this period, security forces would make door-to-door searches for stolen property and individuals associated with looting and property destruction. ¶3. (SBU) National radio announced evening of February 21 that the National Assembly would convene on February 23 in accordance with Article 74 of the constitution related to the state of siege. (Note: The constitution stipulates that a state of siege expires after the twelfth day, February 23 in this case, unless the National Assembly authorizes its extension for some period). Most Guineans believe that the state of siege will be extended with little debate and without forceful opposition. ¶4. (C) The Ambassador met with Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces General Kerfalla Camara this morning (reported septel). The purpose of the meeting was to deliver similar points made last week with the Prime Minister and other senior government officials about the need to address leadership problem head on. ¶5. (C) Civil society contacts confirm that under the state of siege, Guineans have been using prayer time at the mosques to organize, particularly on Fridays. They cautioned us that if the government extends the state of siege (which they �0A;expected it would),February 23 could be explosive. "There will be no turning back," they concluded. ¶6. (SBU) ECOWAS Executive Secretary Chambas and former Nigerian President Babangida have returned to Conakry. ¶7. (SBU) Taibou Diallo, a member of the union coalition executive committee, reported that discussions February 21 between the unions, the patronat, religious leaders, military representatives, and presidents of the National Assembly, Supreme Court, and Economic and Social Council, were direct but surprisingly cordial. When National Assembly President Sompare again urged the unions to accept Eugene Camara as the Prime Minister, union leaders responded that they could not do so, demanding a new prime minister. Camara does not fit the characteristics agreed upon in the January 27 Memorandum of Understanding. ¶8. (C) The unions urged religious leaders to make public that they had relayed to Conte the demand for a new PM and to tell the population how the Head of State replied. Feeling extreme pressure from the grassroots, union leaders want to be sure that the population at large knows the unions continue to call for a new PM as their number one demand. Union leaders have doubted in private that inter-denominational interlocutors are faithfully relaying their messages. The Patronat reportedly sided with the unions in a demand for a new PM. ¶9. (C) Representatives of the military were present at the meeting, as they have been since the declaration of the state of siege but said nothing apart from anodyne introductory remarks. The meeting closed with Ibrahima Fofana, USTG CONAKRY 00000224 002 OF 002 General Secretary, stating that Guinea's trade unions would agree to suspend the general strike at the same time the government lifted the state of siege and agreed to appoint a new prime minister. The government interlocutors reportedly replied that they will take this proposition to Conte and call another meeting as soon as they have an answer. ¶10. (C) Leaders of Conte's dominant PUP party are also planning to make a strong demarche requesting the Head of State to appoint a new PM. Sekou Konate, General Secretary of the PUP, told FSN PolAsst that he and Aliou Banire Diallo, President of the PUP parliamentary group, would lead a delegation to convince Conte to honor the demands of the general population, the majority of whom he claimed as PUP supporters. Konate said that Eugene Camara has been rejected by the people and does not even enjoy the support of his native Forest Region. If Conte continues to back Camara, the already fragile PUP will lose its support base, they said. Conte's own political party is now making the same demarche as the unions -- both institutions speaking, from different angles, on behalf of the majority of Guineans. ¶11. (C) According to unconfirmed reports, a new government, under the direction of Prime Minister Eugene Camara, has been formed but not announced. It is not a government of broad, national consensus. If these reports are true, the people will certainly reject the new government just as they rejected PM Camara. -------------- Mission Operations -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The Mission continues relatively normal operations. The majority of staff is at work. Some staff members have commented on the uncertainty going into the weekend, and have made preparations in case they are unable to come in next week. Emergency Action Committee will meet February 23 to assess potential weekend developments and our preparations. ¶13. (SBU) Consular Section reports a slightly higher level of American citizen visits and calls from yesterday. Most service requests are for passport renewals and information about evacuation, travel, and other options. MCDONALD