TFGV01: SITREP 47: GUINEA UNREST, FEB. 21, 2007,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000215 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR GUINEA TASK FORCE, AF/W, AF/EX, CA/OCS, DS/IP/AF PLEASE ALSO PASS TO AID/AFR, PEACE CORPS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017 TAGS: PGOV ASEC CASC ELAB PINS AEMR GV SUBJECT: TFGV01: SITREP 47: GUINEA UNREST, FEB. 21, 2007, 1630 GMT REF: CONAKRY 201 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: PolOff Jessica Davis Ba, Reason 1.4 (b,d) -------------- Situation on the Ground -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Conakry is calm, with moderate traffic, and no security incidents reported today. There is limited public transportation. Some small shops have tentatively opened their doors halfway. Most of the larger food markets continue to extend "backdoor" service. Apart from this informal market activity, most economic actors continue to observe the general strike. ¶2. (SBU) Fuel shortages remain a problem, particularly in the interior. Several gas stations have been open in Conakry the last two days. Outside of Conakry, fuel is only available on the black market at highly inflated prices. In the Forest Region, Guinea's export ban has made it difficult for residents and transporters to purchase fuel from neighboring countries. During prior strikes and when road conditions cut off the region, people purchased fuel from Liberia. At present, Liberian suppliers, seeking retribution for Guinea not making agricultural products available, have refused to make petroleum products available across the border. -------------- Political Update -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Presidents Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf of Liberia and Ahmed Tejan Kabbah of Sierra Leone spent several hours in country on February 20. The official purpose of the visit, as announced on national radio, was for the neighboring heads of state to learn about the evolution of the crisis and the present socio-political situation and to reinforce the peace and security of the Mano River Union region. In her statement to the press, President Johnson-Sirleaf stated the presidents had a positive and frank discussion with Conte and "He is ready to listen to suggestions from all sectors of society in order to find a solution for peace." ¶4. (C) During the first part of the meeting, we understand that Minister of State for Internal Affairs Moussa Solano made a lengthy presentation about the presence of foreign infiltrators and their efforts to destabilize Guinea. Johnson-Sirleaf and Kabbah reinforced the need to maintain security at the borders, as outlined in existing treaties and agreements, with zero tolerance for any rebel incursions. After the larger discussion, the three heads of state spoke privately. Johnson-Sirleaf and Kabbah reportedly urged a dignified departure for Conteand repeated some of the same messages that the Ambassador has delivered in recent days -- if Conte does not concede, there may be a violent transition. ¶5. (C) Union and religious leaders met February 20 with military representatives and the Presidents of the National Assembly, Supreme Court and Economic and Social Council. National Assembly President Aboubacar Sompare took the lead, asking (begging) the unions to accept Eugene Camara as the Prime Minister. Sompare reported that Conte is resisting appointing a new prime minister, insisting he has already met union demands. Sompare asked union leaders to work with other interlocutors to propose a broad consensus government. In a meeting with PolOff earlier in the day, Rabiatou Serah Diallo, CNTG General Secretary, said the unions have nothing personally against Camara and, in fact, had not even determined an official position on his appointment. (Note: Due to the state of siege, union leaders have been prevented from holding meetings.) It is the people who have rejected Camara, and the population would not allow the unions to accept him as prime minister, Diallo concluded. ¶6. (C) Participants in yesterday's meeting reconvened this morning at 1000 hours at the Palais du Peuple to continue the dialogue. Taibou Diallo, a member of the union coalition executive board, called PolOff to ask for advice on how they should proceed. We recommended that the unions use the opportunity (and protection) of this sanctioned meeting to strategize with one another about their priorities, redlines, and potential areas for compromise or conciliation. We urged that they broaden their contacts with the military and, if CONAKRY 00000215 002 OF 002 they had not done so, talk directly with the Prime Minister as well. At the same time, DATT encouraged our military contacts to reach out to the unions. We suggested that all actors need to recognize the role they each play and to focus on how they might collectively work on stepping back from both the risk of unrest and/or an untenable longer-term state of siege. ¶7. (C) On February 21, Sompare announced that the National Assembly would be called into session on February 23 at 1000 hours -- the day the current state of siege expires. The constitution stipulates that only a vote of the National Assembly can extend a state of siege beyond 12 days. Ousmane Bah, President of the parliamentary opposition group UPR, confirmed that all the deputies are expected to attend, but said that he has not been informed of the agenda. Bah told us that he suspects the representatives will be asked to extend the state of siege; a "dangerous" proposition. While he expressed his concern for a continued state of siege, Bah said that he expected the majority of deputies, affiliated with the ruling PUP and associated parties, would back the measure, even to the detriment of the country. -------------- Mission Operations -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Mission has returned to relatively normal operations. The majority of the staff is at work. With the shortage of public transportation, we are providing shuttle service for key FSNs from some neighborhoods to the Embassy compound. ¶9. (U) Consular Section reports a moderate level of American citizen visits and calls, largely focused on passport renewal and advice on options. MCDONALD