TFGV01: HOW CAN WE NEGOTIATE UNDER A STATE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000182 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR GUINEA TASK FORCE, AF/W, AF/EX, CA/OCS, DS/IP/AF PLEASE ALSO PASS TO AID/AFR, PEACE CORPS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV ASEC CASC ELAB PINS AEMR GV SUBJECT: TFGV01: HOW CAN WE NEGOTIATE UNDER A STATE OF SIEGE? REF: CONAKRY 180 Classified By: POLOFF JESSICA DAVIS BA, REASON 1.4 (b,d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On February 14, Poloff met with labor union leader Rabiatou Serah Diallo and political party leaders Sidya Toure, President of UFR, and Ousmane Bah, President of UPR. In separate meetings, each deplored the extensive powers granted to Guinea's military under the state of siege. All alleged specific instances when military officers have abused this power. They called for an immediate lifting of the state of siege, the withdrawal of any foreign militias (a reference to the reported presence of Liberian ex-ULIMO/LURD mercenaries),and the restoration of citizens' rights. They were all concerned about a growing ethnic dimension to the current crisis. The consensus was that to open a way forward, Conte must make room for a fundamental transition of power. The three noted that despite increased communication difficulties, they are cooperating to advance the will of the people for change. While extremely suspicious, Diallo agreed to attend the meeting called for February 15 by National Assembly President Aboubacar Sompare and other figures to begin negotiations. End Summary. -------------- Military is Untrained and Out of Control -------------- ¶2. (C) In separate meetings with Poloff on February 14, three of Guinea's union and political party leaders alleged that the military is abusing with complete impunity the extensive powers given to them by the February 12 declaration of a state of siege. Opposition leader Sidya Toure, President of UFR, said that his supporters have recounted several instances of military officers invading private homes, looting, and abusing residents. Toure said that he personally knows of one case where a military officer beat elders in a mosque. Toure does not fear for his safety with the Guinean military, but is fearful of foreign militia (read Liberian) that nobody can control. ¶3. (C) Parliamentary opposition group leader Ousmane Bah, President of UPR, told us his regional chiefs report that abuses are worse in the interior. In many areas of the Fouta Djallon, Bah's traditional party stronghold, no remnants remain of state authority. Overwhelmed by the magnitude of the situation, military officers are shooting people as a means of crowd control. There are unconfirmed reports of at least four deaths in Labe. Bah said that in border cities such as Macenta and Guekedou, the military is using this opportunity to exact reprisals and significant abuses are becoming daily occurrences. ¶4. (C) CNTG General Secretary Rabiatou Serah Diallo complained that the military has never fully respected citizens' rights. Now, they have "carte blanche to shoot to kill and destroy everything in between." Diallo expressed fear for the safety of her family. All of the children in her household sleep together because they fear being alone. She lamented that due to lack of training and deep divisions within its ranks, the military is out of control and cannot be trusted. Diallo said, "I know that I am under direct threat -- my government thinks that I am the enemy." Diallo declared that without the attention of the international community, she would already be dead. -------------- Ethnic Dimensions Brewing? -------------- ¶5. (C) Over the last year, the union and civil society movement has largely overcome ethnic divisions. Guineans have demonstrated distinct solidarity -- attributed by some to a sense of universal misery. Union and political party leaders have gone to great lengths to avoid playing their ethnic cards. Toure said that over the last week, he has witnessed a distinct effort by Conte's coterie to play up ethnic differences and anti-Peuhl sentiment. All the leaders cautioned that if left alone, the current state of affairs could devolve into a more ethnic-based conflict. ¶6. (C) Toure said that we must do everything we can "to CONAKRY 00000182 002 OF 003 avert a civil war." He expressed extreme concern over reports that following conflicts at Camp Alpha Yaya earlier in the week, many of the soldiers never returned to the base. He said that arms and ammunition are missing and they have gotten into the hand of youth who are frustrated and have nothing to lose. Toure said that one young man recently told him, "If the military keep shooting at us, we will kill their families; we know where they live." -------------- Conte Never Negotiates -------------- ¶7. (C) Sidya Toure said that he and other leaders are doing everything possible to remain united. He stays in permanent contact with civil society leaders. Toure said that while he has spent the last several years urging a clean break from Conte and Guinea's past political leadership, it is now the unanimous message of all Guineans. Toure said that he has been struck by the popular rejection of Conte, even in his maternal village where demonstrators reportedly are calling for him to step down. He cautioned that this pressure is making Conte dig in his heels even further. ¶8. (C) Asked about resumption of dialogue. Toure declared, "Conte does not dialogue; he only reacts to force." He urged that the United States could be that force. Toure said that though there is currently an ECOWAS representative in Guinea, this intervention will be ineffectual. (Note: ECOWAS Chairperson Blaise Compaore sent a relatively junior Minister of National Unity to speak with government representatives.). Toure urged the U.S. Government to issue a strong statement and demand that Conte put an immediate end to the "state of siege" and the military occupation of Guinea. He said that Secretary Rice should send a message to Conte emphasizing SIPDIS that it will be his personal responsibility if chaos returns to this region that the international community has worked so long to stabilize. -------------- Unions Appear Split Over Attendance -------------- ¶9. (C) Just prior to the meeting with Poloff, Rabiatou Serah Diallo received a convocation to the Palais du Peuple on February 15 to begin dialogue. She was concerned about participating, fearing that the military and General Kerfalla cannot be trusted, but told poloff February 15 that she planned to attend. Diallo said she only agreed to do so once it was made clear that the institution presidents were inviting relevant actors under the auspices of General Kerfalla. Diallo asked Poloff to contact her number two, Amadou Diallo, to convince him also to attend. Diallo said that she will continue to seek a durable solution to this crisis, which must involve a transition in leadership. ¶10. (C) Poloff spoke with several union leaders February 15 to urge them to attend the meeting. Poloff said that the Ambassador spoke directly with General Kerfalla who expressed his support for dialogue and assured their security. Yamodou Toure, another one of the four key union general secretaries directly confirmed to us he will go. Rabiatou Diallo said that she did not know who else would be there. We were not able to contact USTG General Secretary Ibrahim Fofana. Taibou Diallo, a member of the civil-military committee and the executive board of the union coalition confirmed that Fofana has refused to attend the meeting and dialogue with any representative of this government. Fofana has reportedly shut off all his phones and refused contact with national and international labor representatives encouraging him to participate. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Union and political leaders all appeared tired and out of sorts, and clearly felt cut off from information and their key contacts. They underscored that Conte's regime is doing everything in its power to prevent them from organizing. None has control over the acts of violence by the population. They emphasized that civilians targeting and destroying property was wrong, and emphasized that contrary to what the government would like for everyone to think, it is not based on ethnicity. Soussous are destroying Soussou houses, Peuhls robbing others Peuhls, and Malinkes burning CONAKRY 00000182 003 OF 003 down the properties of other Malinkes. They agreed that in the present situation, they believe the situation would get worse before it can improve. The bottom line is with Conte, they said. None believed that Guinea's Head of State has any interest or ability to solve the present crisis. MCDONALD