UNION LEADER SUGGESTS REOPENING POLITICAL DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 001220 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017 TAGS: ELAB PGOV PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: UNION LEADER SUGGESTS REOPENING POLITICAL DIALOGUE Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Dr. Ibrahim Fofana, one of Guinea,s key union leaders is frustrated by Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate,s lack of progress on the January 27 Accords and plans to urge him to take a more aggressive approach. Dissatisfied with declining political momentum, Fofana suggested reopening the dialogue that gave birth to the Accords and the consensus government in early 2007. Fofana claimed that the unions remain solidly united, but comments suggest distrust of co-leader Mme Serah Rabiatou. Fofana clearly sees the unions as Guinea,s primary political force, but may be overestimating the depth of his support. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Poloff met jointly with three union leaders on November 1, including Dr. Ibrahim Fofana, Secretary General of the Labor Union of Guinean workers (USTG); Dr. Louis M,Bemba Soumah, Secretary General of the Union of Independent Teachers and Researchers of Guinea (SLECG); and Mme Taibou Diallo who is the union liaison to the civil-military working group. Dr. Fofana is also co-chair of the union inter-syndicale, along with Elhadja Bah Diallo Rabiatou Serah. -------------- KOUYATE NEEDS TO RAMP IT UP -------------- ¶3. (C) Fofana expressed frustration and disappointment with the consensus government, led by Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate, which he said has failed to deliver on its mandate. A key problem, Fofana said, is the country,s failure to recognize the January 27 Accords as a legally binding agreement. In many ways, the Accords are actually stronger than current law,, he said, because they represent the demands of the population. Fofana added that consensus government advocates, including Kouyate and the unions, need to aggressively assert authority. ¶4. (C) In the unions, next meeting with Kouyate (currently unscheduled),Fofana said that they are going to up the heat., He said that they already told Kouyate that he needs to be more aggressive, but now they are going to ramp it up a bit more., Fofana said that Kouyate needs to assume responsibility and do the job he was put in office to do and that is what the unions plan to tell him. -------------- WE SHOULD REOPEN THE DIALOGUE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Dissatisfied with declining political momentum following the January/February strikes, Fofana suggested that the leaders who negotiated the January 27 Accords reconvene and renew dialogue, under the leadership of ECOWAS. According to Fofana, the January 27 Accords were agreed to under intense political pressure resulting from the civil unrest and state of emergency. Fofana said that dialoguing in a relaxed environment could ensure better, more balanced, realistic results. In addition, Fofana said such a dialogue could help deter further violence and confrontation. -------------- NO DIVISIONS HERE -------------- ¶6. (C) Eight months after Kouyate,s appointment, Fofana said the country is fundamentally split: Conte is sick, the army is divided, the Patronat is divided, civil society is divided, the youth are divided, and political parties are divided., Fofana said that high-level government officials on Conte,s payroll are behind these divisions. He added that they are being paid to disrupt Guinean society and ensure a lack of cohesion. Fofana said that Conte is sick, but not that sick,, and plenty healthy enough to manipulate the political situation. ¶7. (C) When asked about rumored political divisions within the union inter-syndicale, Fofana said that the unions, as a union of unions, are strong and united. However, he added that any divisions are at the individual level., Fofana said that CNTG leader, Rabiatou, is actively trying to divide the unions. He said she has held private meetings with the prime minister, the president and the first lady. No one knows what she is doing or who she is representing,, Fofana said, raising concerns about whether Rabiatou is acting independently, but claiming to have the support of the union inter-syndicale. When asked if he had questioned Rabiatou, Fofana said he had not had an opportunity since they have had conflicting travel schedules in recent months, but that he would talk to her when she returns to the country. CONAKRY 00001220 002 OF 002 ¶8. (SBU) Fofana also said that the political parties are seeking to divide the unions. The parties are scared because they see that the unions have an electoral base and we represent better than the parties., Fofana added that people are coming directly to the unions, regardless of whether they are members or not, to demand the political change embodied in the January/February strikes. They are not seeking out the political parties, he said. -------------- THE ARMY SUPPORTS US -------------- ¶9. (SBU) With respect to the military, Fofana said that the army places its confidence in the unions before all others. He added that certain military officials told him directly that they would not plan any coup without consulting with the unions first. Fofana said union reps are maintaining frequent, informal contact with military representatives. -------------- TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS ARE IMPOSSIBLE -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Skeptical of legislative elections as an effective tool for political change, Fofana said that transparent elections are impossible with Conte still in power., He added that people do not have any confidence in the political parties nor in the National Independent Electoral Commission, which has yet to be established. Fofana said that a better tactic would be to further delay the elections and change the electoral code in order to allow independent candidates to run and to improve overall electoral conditions. ¶11. (SBU) Poloff encouraged union leaders to instead consider urging Kouyate to replace key administrative officials throughout the country (those not serving in elected positions) in order to achieve greater neutrality as the country moves toward elections and to focus efforts on developing a credible Electoral Commission. Poloff emphasized that any attempts to revise the electoral code would most certainly be time consuming and difficult to achieve in the current political context. Fofana seemed willing to consider these ideas and said that pushing Kouyate to continue replacing administrative appointees would be a good tactic. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Based on his comments, Fofana clearly sees the unions as the country,s main political driver. While he claims that the unions remain united, divisions are evident. Rumors abound and include not only the above mentioned accusations against Rabiatou, but also allegations that Fofana himself accepted bribes. His statement that the January 27 Accords should be more legally binding than the Constitution and Guinea,s laws suggest that he, and possibly the unions, have unrealistic expectations as to the role of the consensus government. ¶13. (C) Fofana,s suggestion of reconvening a dialogue on political change could backfire. Conte is not fond of ECOWAS and would not necessarily have a reason to dialogue if he is not under pressure as he was earlier this year. If he refuses to participate, it would add tension to Guinea's current political drama that seems replete with unrealistic expectations. Failure to meet unrealistic and in some quarters, undefined, expectations could pose further problems. While the goal of bringing all the parties to the table to reevaluate the current political situation could be useful, it is not clear that such a session would overcome persistent and growing divisions among these groups. It is clear that such an initiative would need to be handled very carefully. ¶14. (SBU) Since the unions were widely seen as the catalyst for political change following the January/February strikes, Fofana likely does have a strong support base, but he may be overestimating its depth. For example, while Fofana,s comments regarding the military are likely accurate, the military is itself divided and does not speak with a united voice so it is not clear what kind of military support there really is for the unions. END COMMENT. CARTER