SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION WILL COOPERATE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000099 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION WILL COOPERATE WITH GOVERNMENT ON PEACE PROCESS REGARDLESS OF INTERNAL RIFTS Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROBERT O. BLAKE, JR. FOR REASONS 1.4(b) and ( d) ¶1. (C) The Ambassador met with Karu Jayasuriya, former deputy leader of the opposition United National Party (UNP),on January 17 to discuss whether the likely "cross-over" of UNP members to accept cabinet slots in the government would damage the MoU between the UNP and governing Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). Jayasuriya pointed out that the MoU so far has produced few tangible results, other than assuring UNP support for the government's budget. He criticized party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe for signing the MoU without insisting on an implementing mechanism. He posited that even if Wickremesinghe abrogates the MoU, it will have no material effect. Jayasuriya assessed that most UNP members - in or out of the government - will consider the greater national interest and support a strong devolution proposal if the government presents it in parliament, whether or not the MoU is in effect. Need for Internal Reform -------------- ¶2. (C) Jayasuriya told the Ambassador that he is leading a group of 17 reformists within the UNP and hopes he and some of his colleagues will be named ministers when President Rajapaksa announces a new cabinet, probably after a January 19 SLFP executive committee meeting. He noted that the UNP members who accept government posts will retain their party affiliation. According to Jayasuriya, taking ministries will give the UNP a voice in governance and permit genuine cooperation on the peace process. He was confident the majority of UNP members would support the government within parliament, and together, the two parties could convince the bulk of voters to accept a devolution proposal to bring a peaceful end to Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict. ¶3. (C) Jayasuriya believed that UNP members are seeking government posts out of a sense of frustration with their own party. He noted that since 1994, when Wickremesinghe came to power, the party has lost 14 out of 16 elections and lost much of its support in agrarian districts. He added that in 1995, Wickremesinghe implemented a new regulation that makes it almost impossible to oust the party leader, who appoints members to all key party positions, including the only working group that might remove him from office. Despite Wickremesinghe's tight grip on the party and his predicted displeasure with "cross-overs" who join government, Jayasuriya said, he was confident UNP members taking cabinet posts will not hinder efforts to revive the peace process. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: While many analysts greeted the MoU between the UNP and SLFP as an important foundation for building a "southern consensus," Jayasuriya is correct that it has yielded little to date. While Wickremesinghe will balk at the president's "raid" of UNP members, the majority of UNP parliamentarians have voter bases that strongly support a negotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict. Jayasuriya is right that most UNP parliamentarians will likely support a strong devolution proposal in parliament, not simply in the national interest, but also in order to cater to their voters. BLAKE