MALDIVES: ENCOURAGING PROGRESS ON CONSTITUTION;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001532 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS AND SCA/RA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MV SUBJECT: MALDIVES: ENCOURAGING PROGRESS ON CONSTITUTION; ELECTION SEASON IN FULL SWING REF: A. COLOMBO 1254 ¶B. COLOMBO 1216 Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On the margins of U.S.-Maldives Friendship Week from November 4-6, Ambassador and Poloffs met a number of contacts to discuss the progress of democratic reform in Maldives. Most contacts reported a renewed sense of cooperation between the government and opposition and encouraging progress on drafting Maldives' new constitution. Male is already buzzing with talk of next year's presidential election, and almost every party has at least one declared presidential candidate. End Summary. Optimism About Finishing the Constitution -------------- ¶2. (C) Opposition and government contacts alike reported a renewed spirit of cooperation and encouraging progress on the drafting of the constitution. Deputy Foreign Minister Dunya Maumoon, the President's daughter, told Ambassador the government remains committed to the November 30 deadline and is working day and night to meet it. She noted that all parties were cooperating, enabling good progress. Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) member of parliament Mariya Didi also commented to Poloff on the excellent progress made recently and the new spirit of collaboration within the Special Majlis, the constituent assembly tasked with the drafting. Former Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed told Ambassador that President Gayoom's current enthusiasm for finishing the constitution stems from his desire to make a good showing at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Kampala (November 23-25) -- where he fears he will be criticized if he has no progress to demonstrate. Shaheed was somewhat worried that Gayoom's ardor for reform might dim once he has the Commonwealth summit behind him, a fear echoed later by MDP leaders. Opposition Pushing for a Transitional Arrangement -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) One remaining area of contention, however, is the issue of a transitional arrangement. It remains unclear how the transition between constitutions will be carried out. The MDP supports the idea of a multi-party transitional authority to oversee the presidential election and the transition to the new constitution. Former Foreign Ministers Ahmed Shaheed and former Justice Minister Mohamed Jameel, both of the "New Maldives" group, also favor a transitional arrangement. Shaheed said South Africa's transitional authority or Bangladesh's caretaker government offered good examples. Foreign Ministry officials were reluctant to comment on the idea of a transitional arrangement, but implied the government would support whatever arrangement was laid out in the new constitution. Shaheed told Ambassador that Gayoom is resistant to the idea of a transitional authority because he thinks it will "paralyze the government." Presidential Candidates Abound -------------- ¶4. (C) In recent weeks, potential presidential candidates seem to have been coming out of the woodwork. Deputy Foreign Minister Maumoon confirmed that the President is interested in contesting elections as the Dhivehi Raiyyithunge Party (DRP) candidate, but said his final decision will depend on the details of the new constitution. Former Attorney General Hassan Saeed announced his candidacy in late October. Shaheed told Ambassador on November 6 that Saeed was the obvious choice among the New Maldives reformers because of his seniority (he joined the Cabinet earlier than Shaheed and Jameel) and because he is a "natural leader." Shaheed joked that he'll just serve as the "chief strategist." The MDP's President Mohamed Munavvar and Vice-President Ibrahim Hussein Zaki have both expressed interest in running as the party's candidate, although there is some (possibly intentional) COLOMBO 00001532 002 OF 003 ambiguity about whether either has announced a candidacy. There have been vocal appeals from some supporters of MDP Chairman Mohamed Nasheed's (a/k/a Anni) asking him to run. Lesser known parties such as the Islamic Democratic Party and Social Liberal Party have also declared candidates. ¶5. (C) Shaheed speculated that the MDP would realize the risk of splitting the opposition vote and eventually rally behind Saeed, who Shaheed claims has a better chance of winning than any of the MDP candidates. Shaheed seemed confident that Saeed would easily knock Munavvar out of the running because of his cleaner reputation and greater popularity in the South. Shaheed also noted that the President's incumbency will not serve as an advantage. Gayoom has too much baggage, he said, and the Government's response to the tsunami showed that the administrative structure in the islands has atrophied. Moreover, he said, Gayoom's attempt to use patronage to win support actually serves to alienate people. The New Maldives group, in contrast, has significant investor and international backing, and is now working to build grassroots support, he said. ¶6. (C) Pol Chief and visiting SCA/INS desk officer met most of the MDP leadership on November 3, including party Chairman Nasheed, President Munavvar, Vice President Zaki, MP Mariya Didi, and others. The party leaders explained that friction between themselves and the MDP parliamentary delegation had now largely been sorted out. Our interlocutors were exuberant over the progress on the draft constitution and appeared confident that work could be completed, if not by the November 30 deadline, then by the end of 2007. Nasheed explained that the MDP was satisfied with the concessions it had obtained and was anxious to lock them in, the one sensitive area remaining being the transitional arrangements it seeks. He said he had been reaching out to leaders of other political formations, including President Gayoom and the Islamist parties, to bring the work to completion. The MDP leaders made it clear they were willing to forget past differences with the "New Maldives" group in the interest of forming an alliance, and broadly hinted that they might back Saeed for President. On November 4, Munavvar called on Saeed publicly to join the MDP and to contest the primary election the MDP plans to choose its candidate. Preparations Begin for Election Monitoring -------------- ¶7. (C) The Foreign Ministry confirmed that a UN mission will arrive in Maldives in December to assess Maldives' election support needs. The Commonwealth has also offered to provide support. Ambassador encouraged the GORM to provide as much advance notice on the election date as possible so that monitoring organizations have time to organize assistance. Democracy Discussion Draws a Crowd -------------- ¶8. (C) The Maldivian public's interest in the reform process was evident in the impressive turnout for the panel discussion on Democratic Reform in Maldives, hosted by Ambassador as part of Friendship Week. Panelists, including Ambassador and representatives from government, opposition and civil society, spoke about the reform process. The audience was given time to question the panelists on their views. Over 100 people (a large audience in the Maldivian context) turned out for the event, and the audience was engaged and eager to ask questions. One opposition MP told Poloff that this was the first discussion or debate of its kind in Maldives and that it provided a healthy learning experience for the public. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: The excitement over elections and proliferation of candidates in some ways seems premature. Even after the constitution is drafted, new election laws will have to be established before an election can be held, presumably before the current President's term expires in November 2008. The MDP appears to have passed through a COLOMBO 00001532 003 OF 003 bruising phase of internal debate over strategy and personalities. For the moment, Nasheed (Anni) seems to have prevailed with the argument that the principal objective is to ensure the retirement of President Gayoom, and that the best way to accomplish this is to try to rally a broad front of political forces, including some of the Islamists and reform elements of the ruling DRP, behind Hassan Saeed's candidacy. This is, in fact, the first time that we have seen the main opposition MDP energized and upbeat about the prospects for genuine political pluralism in the country. It is encouraging to see so much enthusiasm for reform. Embassy contacts expressed appreciation for the events and activities associated with Friendship Week, and for what they termed "growing U.S. interest in Maldives." BLAKE