SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT'S SOUTHERN POLITICAL BASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001071 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS MCC FOR D NASSIRY AND E BURKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT'S SOUTHERN POLITICAL BASE ERODING Classified By: Charge d'Affaires James R. Moore, for reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Rajapaksa is losing support among his political base in southern coastal towns to former Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, whose recent alliance with the United National Party (UNP) has re-energized the opposition. In an effort to sway public opinion in his favor, Rajapaksa is marshaling loyal members of Parliament to trumpet the government's military successes against the Tamil Tigers. END SUMMARY. RAJAPAKSA FACING INCREASED OPPOSITION FROM FORMER ALLIES -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Several municipal councils in the heartland of President Rajapaksa's political base have taken steps recently to align themselves with Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) breakaway leader (and former Rajapaksa political ally) Mangala Samaraweera. In Matara, the municipal council rejected the President's designated mayoral candidate and publicly stated its support for Samaraweera. The President's party also lost its majority on the Tangalle Urban Council (only 10 kilometers from Rajapaksa's home) when three of five SLFP members declared they were crossing over to the opposition. In Hambantota and Tangalle, municipal councils are waiting to strike down pro-Rajapaksa initiatives and declare support for Mangala. The mayor in Galle, the largest southern city, has felt compelled to defer action on several issues, fearing that the municipal council will vote against him in order to demonstrate its preference for Samaraweera over Rajapaksa. ¶3. (C) The Sinhala nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP),once closely aligned with Rajapaksa, has also actively sought to undermine the President's support in recent weeks. On July 30 and 31, the JVP organized large demonstrations of fishermen in Negombo, 25 kilometers North of Colombo, to protest GSL fishing restrictions and the rising price of fuel. Although the UNP and JVP are traditional political enemies, the UNP rallied its supporters in the South to join the JVP fishermen's demonstration. Samaraweera, who has long cultivated close ties to the JVP, has provided the link that allows the two other parties to coordinate efforts to oppose Rajapaksa. THE PRESIDENT ATTEMPTS TO MARSHAL SUPPORTERS -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to Mangala's growing popularity and pressure from the opposition parties, President Rajapaksa has dispatched loyal SLFP members of Parliament to campaign in the South, heralding the government's military successes against the SLFP. Embassy interlocutors have confided to us that the President's message to his southern base is that the administration "won in the East and will soon turn its sights to the North." ¶5. (C) COMMENT: The President's traditional supporters are angry about rising inflation and disappointed by mounting evidence of political corruption. Embassy interlocutors tell us that Rajapaksa is very concerned about the erosion of his political base. The government's response so far has been fairly measured, however. The administration had anticipated that victory in the East would provide a boost to its flagging support, with some predicting that Rajapaksa would try to ride the momentum by calling snap Parliamentary elections. However, the larger public seemed relatively unimpressed by the victory in the East; any propaganda benefit to the government has quickly dissipated. It appears COLOMBO 00001071 002 OF 002 unlikely that merely turning up the volume in an attempt to convince an increasingly skeptical public will be enough to shore up the President's sagging fortunes in the heartland of Sinhalese nationalism. MOORE