SRI LANKA: GOVERNMENT STILL WORKING ON PLANS FOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001057 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/INS AND EEB/IFD/ODF MCC FOR S. GROFF, D. TETER, D. NASSIRY AND E. BURKE TREASURY FOR LESLIE HULL E.O 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID EINV PGOV PHUM CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: GOVERNMENT STILL WORKING ON PLANS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST REF: A) COLOMBO 971 B) COLOMBO 977 C) COLOMBO 1016 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The government of Sri Lanka announced soon after consolidating military control over the East (ref A) that it would ask donors to fund development of the area. The president has designated his brother Basil as the point man for the Eastern development push. Basil told UN officials July 17 that he would have a redevelopment plan ready by July 19, however that date has slipped to August 7. Donors will likely be cautious in responding to the government's appeal, wanting to see firm indications that the government's control over the area is truly solid, that the government will not attempt to marginalize Tamil and Muslim citizens, and that projects will be economically sustainable. In addition, the GSL's announcement that NGOs' development activities in the East will fall under the supervision of security forces has raised concerns among the donor community. The government could take their hesitancy as reason to seek more help from non-traditional donors. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) President Rajapaksa, in his July 19 address celebrating the government's July 11 defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the East, promised to "launch an all out development war, giving priority to agriculture" in the East. He expressed confidence that international donors would support the effort, echoing an earlier appeal by Public Administration Minister Karu Jayasuriya for donors to support "an accelerated program of redevelopment that will be completed in six months." Rajapaksa placed his brother and trusted advisor Basil in charge of the government's planning for development of the East. Basil, after initially stating that the government's redevelopment plan would be ready by July 19, and then by July 27, currently is scheduled to present the plan August 7 to the Consultative Committee on Humanitarian Assistance (CCHA),which consists of bilateral and multilateral donors, international organizations, and NGOs. Charge will attend for the U.S. Mission. ¶3. (SBU) United Nations officials already working on the resettlement of internally displaced people in the East have had preliminary meetings with Basil to discuss the larger development 
challenge as well. According to Tom Hockley, of the UN Resident Coordinator's Office, Basil described three "pillars" required for the East to catch up with the rest of the country: first, security and stability (which Basil said has been achieved with the taking of Thoppigala); second, reconstruction and development; and third, political restructuring and stability (which would presumably be addressed by some form of local elections -- see refs B and C). To address the second pillar, the government is working on two guiding plans: a "Resettlement Plan for the East" and a "Sunrise Regional Plan for the East." NEAR-TERM PLAN FOCUSES ON BATTICALOA RESETTLEMENT -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Resettlement Plan for the East, coordinated by the Ministry of Resettlement and Disaster Relief Services, would cover the short-term process of resettling internally displaced persons. First priority would be those displaced by recent fighting, followed by those displaced by the 2004 tsunami, and finally those displaced by fighting over the past twenty years. It would address food and water supplies, housing, health and education, livelihoods, roads and transport, public services, and religious affairs for newly resettled citizens in Batticaloa district. This plan will call for donor funds of about $27 million. ¶5. (SBU) Other steps planned for near-term recovery, according to Basil, are demining, reduction of limitations on coastal fishing hours, and creation of procedures for police to inspect and seal trucks to facilitate transportation of fish and produce from the COLOMBO 00001057 002 OF 003 East and goods from Colombo to the East. LONGER-TERM DEVELOPMENT PLAN COMING SOON -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The government intends to release its Sunrise Regional Plan for the East, composed of elements formulated by individual line ministries, on August 7. The long-term plan (through 2030) would be broken into ten-year increments, correlated to the development promises formulated in the President's "Mahinda Chintana" campaign manifesto. It appears this plan will be an update of a 2004 Eastern Province Development Plan that was shelved when the tsunami hit and fighting subsequently resumed in the East. This plan would include infrastructure development, to be accomplished using both government and donor funds. While no overall dollar figure has been cited for this plan, Basil noted to UN officials that development of the East was included in the 2007 budget, so each line ministry has funds for the job. For example, he said, the Ministry of Nation Building has about $11 million; another government source told the media this week that the government was ready to spend a total of about $55 million. MILITARY TO OVERSEE NGOs' DEVELOPMENT WORK -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The government has decided that the army and police will play a supervisory role in the East development process. Military spokesman Brigadier Prasad Samarasinghe told the BBC that local military commanders would work with civil authorities to approve and monitor NGO activities in the East. The Colombo Sunday Times quoted a directive issued by Eastern Security Forces Commander Parakrama Pannipitiya stating, "rural development of areas liberated by the forces after the humanitarian operations, where there is a civil population must be done under the supervision of the police stationed in the areas as well as the armed forces." This memo stated that village level committees, composed of villagers and a member from the armed forces and the police, would be responsible to identify projects that NGOs could conduct. The Pannipitiya memo went on to say that "NGOs should not be permitted to do as they please in these areas as before." COMMENT: COORDINATION AND PLANNING WON'T BE EASY -------------- --- ¶8. (SBU) Of the 65 cabinet and non-cabinet ministries that have allocations in the 2007 budget, dozens have line responsibilities relevant to development in the East. Another handful (Finance and Planning, Plans and Implementation, Public Administration, Nation Building, etc.) have coordinating responsibilities, so this effort is bound to experience coordination problems. Further, the government's rush to get a plan out within weeks of retaking the East is symptomatic of its tendency to do hasty planning for complicated and sensitive challenges like this. Finally, the government's preference for top-down, non-market approaches to planning will raise questions about the viability and sustainability of its plans. ¶9. (SBU) International donors and assistance agencies thus are likely to have divergent ideas from the government on what needs to be done to get the East back on its feet. Smaller donors will want to focus on sustainable grass roots level capacity building. (Note: USAID's new program for Sri Lanka focuses heavily on economic growth and democracy and governance in the East. Programs will involve a range of activities including grass roots livelihood development and support for small businesses, including connecting farmers with markets in the prosperous Western Province and abroad.) The government is supportive of these types of programs, but its recent COLOMBO 00001057 003 OF 003 appeal appears focused on commitments to build infrastructure. It may ask large donors, like Japan, the Asian Development Bank, and the World Bank, to shift some of their planned investments to new projects in the East. These donors may not be eager to fund infrastructure in an area that the government controls only tenuously. ¶10. (SBU) The government's decision to charge military and police with supervising NGO activities will also add to the divergence between how the government and the donors see the development process going. This directive indicates that the government continues to believe that the LTTE is likely to try to infiltrate NGO staff and that many NGOs are biased toward the LTTE. From these beliefs, the government concludes that NGO resources, if not monitored, may be diverted to the LTTE. While there is some basis for this concern with respect to NGOs operating in the LTTE-controlled North, it appears contradictory for the government to retain this concern in the East, given the government's assertion that it controls the area. COMMENT, CONT'D: WHICH DONORS WILL THE GOVERNMENT COURT? -------------- ¶11. (SBU) With the government's interest in infrastructure and its tasking of security forces with supervising NGO activities, it will be interesting to watch the degree to which Sri Lanka seeks the assistance of non-traditional donors, especially China. With President Rajapaksa having recently said Sri Lanka could do without donors who attach conditions to their assistance, the development of the East could demonstrate whether the government is prepared to be flexible in order to retain the support of its oldest, most competent, and most generous donors, or whether it will want to do things its own way with less transparent help from a small handful of non-Western donors such as China. MOORE