LITSKAI: HEADING TO MADRID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 001400 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017 TAGS: PREL PBTS OSCE PGOV MD SUBJECT: LITSKAI: HEADING TO MADRID CHISINAU 00001400 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Michael D. Kirby for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Transnistrian "Foreign Minister" Litskai intends to travel to Madrid for consultations on the sidelines of the OSCE Ministerial. In a November 23 meeting, Litskai told Ambassador Kirby he expected the Finns would provide much better leadership for OSCE than the Spanish had. While the Transnistrian (TN) leadership will not ask directly for aid, Litskai expressed interest in seeing some 20 percent of the total Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact program channeled to their needs. Litskai was open to assistance in the health and agricultural sectors, but suggested the USG work through raion-level local leadership. Litskai said he had acted as a "dove," taking political risks to meet with GOM Minister for Reintegration Sova and the 5 plus 2 members in Odessa, but then had been sabotaged by recent GOM actions. We've changed places with Moldova, he suggested, now they are the ones not ready for peace. End Summary. Litskai Plans to Travel to Madrid -------------- ¶2. (C) Litskai told the Ambassador that he planned to travel to the upcoming OSCE Ministerial in Madrid. It will be an opportunity for informal exchanges, he said, to talk to everyone there. He expressed his frustration with the failures of Spanish leadership, but was confident the Finns would work more actively. The Finns, he said, have a good group of experts who have studied the Transnistrian problem and worked on it for years. (Comment: Litskai's travel plans suggest that he already received his Spanish visa during his recent trip to Moscow. EU Ambassadors in Chisinau tell us they are unaware of Spanish consultations with other EU countries before granting the visa to Litskai and effectively overriding the EU's visa ban. End Comment.) Give 20 Percent of MCC Compact to Transnistria -------------- - ¶3. (C) Litskai suggested that the USG should use the "percentage of population" rule to allocate 20 percent of any future MCC Compact program to Transnistria. Litskai expressed some concerns that the GOM would steal too high a percentage of the money. The Ambassador explained that the USG had made efforts to design a program that would not allow this slippage, and suggested that Litskai meet directly with MCC officials during their next visit to Moldova. At the same time, the Ambassador made no promise either of MCC assistance or of a prearranged division of any possible assistance. The "foreign minister" agreed to a meeting in Tiraspol to learn more about the MCC Compact program and how it worked. He noted that on mutually-profitable issues, such as gas problems and banking, Tiraspol and Chisinau authorities had already proven themselves capable of working together. ¶4. (C) Litskai noted that it was a peculiarity of Transnistrian political culture that the authorities would maintain that they did not need any help. Let our fields wither away, he joked, let our submarine drown, and the leadership would still not acknowledge needing assistance. He compared this attitude to right-bank authorities, begging with their outstretched hand. Despite their political culture, Litskai acknowledged a broad need for economic assistance in general and for agricultural aid in particular. In the wake of last summer's drought, Transnistria would definitely need seeds, Litskai thought. As each district (raion) had different agricultural needs, Litskai suggested that the best approach was to coordinate directly with the raion administration. Though the Ambassador asked twice about specific districts that were hardest hit, Litskai did not name a specific district. Recent GOM Decree Strengthens the Hawks -------------- ¶5. (C) Litskai noted he had taken a political risk in attending the informal 5 plus 2 meeting in Odessa. Later, the Transnistrians had agreed to participate in a November 13 Madrid meeting while Sova, according to Litskai, subsequently refused. Litskai said that now the Transnistrians had changed places with the Chisinau authorities, and had become more cooperative, while the GOM was blocking the process. Litskai cited as an example the recent GOM creation of seven working groups. He claimed that TN had responded that it was ready to engage, but wanted to see concrete projects. Instead, he complained, the GOM had nothing concrete to offer and President Voronin said he needed until mid-December. Litskai claimed that this proved that the GOM was not ready for peace. CHISINAU 00001400 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Litskai said that the GOM's recent license plate decree (which would require re-registration on the right bank of TN-registered vehicles) had strengthened the hawks in the TN government, who were calling for a full-scale retaliation. Litskai considered himself to be among the Tiraspol doves. The Ambassador urged Litskai that TN not undertake any hasty retaliation, since the decree was likely to be modified. Litskai suggested that the public release of this ill-timed decree showed that Voronin does not control the situation. The decree also hit Sova, Litskai noted, exposing both negotiators to attacks by their respective hawks. ¶7. (C) The Ambassador reminded Litskai of the unhelpful signals that the Transnistrian side had sent recently. While in Abkhazia, Litskai had made comments that were not well received in Chisinau. The hawks in Chisinau were happy to hear those statements. Now, said the Ambassador, those who want to move forward had to control the extremists. Litskai responded that the Sukhumi statements were mostly posturing to coordinate a single approach on how to react following any possible unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. Comment: -------------- ¶8. (C) The mercurial Litskai was once again in a cooperative and constructive mode, ready to engage in practical discussions on MCC and on moving forward with 5 plus 2. For now, Litskai appears to be ready to talk. However, it is not clear that he is ready ) or empowered ) to negotiate. In any case, his departure for the OSCE Ministerial in Madrid is unhelpful. The Spanish apparently violated the EU ban on visas for Transnistrian leaders by granting Litskai a visa without consulting other partners. The news of Litskai's plans to go to Madrid has angered the Moldovans. They have threatened to walk out, but the Ambassador encouraged Sova (during a November 27 meeting) and Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Stratan (via a chat with DFM Ostalep also on November 27) to maintain diplomatic composure so that the Moldovan side could take the moral high ground and appear ready for talks. KIRBY