BORDER FIGHTING HEATS UP AFTER KNU SPLIT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000066 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/10/2017 TAGS: PREL PINS TH BM SUBJECT: BORDER FIGHTING HEATS UP AFTER KNU SPLIT REF: A) RANGOON 199, B) CHIANG MAI 22, C) RANGOON 263, D) CHIANG MAI 35, E) CHIANG MAI 63 CHIANG MAI 00000066 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: John Spykerman, Political Officer, CG Chiang Mai, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Shaken by a recent split in its ranks, the Karen National Union (KNU) took more battering this week, as soldiers allied with former KNU 7th Brigade Commander Htain Maung joined State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) forces in an attack against KNU units near the Thai-Burma border, according to local media reports and NGOs operating in the area. The attack comes on the heels of a suspected KNU assault on family members of Brig Gen Htain Maung, who left the KNU in January. Although KNU officials sought to portray the January split as a minor shakeup that left the core KNU stronger, the latest developments spell trouble for the long-time resistance group. End Summary. WAR OF WORDS GETS VIOLENT ¶2. (C/NF) Rival KNU groups have waged a war mainly fought with words since former 7th Brigade leader Htain Maung led his faction away from the KNU fold in January (ref A, B). For two months, both sides traded verbal barbs, exchanging dueling accusations of corruption and irrelevance. The exile community initially lashed out at Htain Maung's defection, in which a few hundred soldiers and families appeared to join in, but later dismissed the breakaway as insignificant. They noted several big names - including members of recently deceased KNU leader Gen. Bo Mya's family - had distanced themselves from Htain Maung after initially appearing to have condoned, or even joined in, the desertion. However, Htain Maung and his "KNU/KNLA Peace Council" made several moves in March that showed that while they might not have caught the imagination of the Karen people, they had made inroads with the SPDC and its DKBA allies, who saw opportunities for anti-KNU propaganda. ¶3. (S/NF) The situation grew tenser on April 1, when troops believed to belong to the KNU's Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) attacked Htain Maung's traveling party as they were traveling between Karen State and Thailand. Ler Moo, Htain Maung's son-in-law, and two teenage boys sustained serious injuries from gunshots. All three received treatment at a hospital in Mae Sot. Ler Moo, who is also one of Htain Maung's top lieutenants, later moved to Chiang Mai for additional treatment. Many sources believe new 7th Brigade leader Brig Gen Johnny carried out the April 1 attack under orders from KNU leaders (KNU spokesmen told local media that they did not play a role in the attack.) A source close to Htain Maung's family said that Royal Thai Army officials have warned them that the KNU may attempt more attacks. ¶4. (C/NF) Prior to the April 1 attack, the breakaway faction appeared to be building closer ties to the DKBA and SPDC leaders. Those ties came into light as Htain Maung's forces apparently joined SPDC and DKBA forces in a series of skirmishes against KNU positions and the headquarters of the Karen Youth Organization north of Mae Sot in Karen State this past weekend. A report from the Free Burma Rangers, an NGO assisting Karen resistance organizations and refugees, said those attacks pushed another 200 Karen villagers to flee to Thailand, while the SPDC's latest offensive has displaced some 1,000 villagers in Karen State this month. ¶5. (C/NF) Before the attack, Peace Council members had begun to aggressively advertise alleged progress they had made in brokering an end to the 60-year-old conflict between the Karen and Burma's central government. Following his defection from the KNU, Htain Maung led about 300 soldiers and their families to Hto Kaw Koe village in Karen State, where he has since held meetings with the SPDC, DKBA, and a visiting delegation of European academics (ref C). Sources familiar with the situation say SPDC officials, such as Maj. Gen. Ye Myint, met with Htain Maung at the funeral of long-time KNU leader Gen. Bo Mya last December in an attempt to divide the KNU ranks (ref D). Since then, the SPDC has used the relationship with Htain Maung's group to annoy KNU leaders and sow dissention in their ranks. ¶6. (C/NF) Pastor Timothy, a self-described peacemaker who reportedly has held a grudge against KNU leaders since he lost his seat on the KNU's Central Executive Committee, encouraged Htain Maung's break with mainline KNU leaders. Over the past few years, Pastor Timothy pursued an independent peacemaking agenda, holding meetings with the SPDC and DKBA despite the KNU's condemnation of his actions. As one of the key behind-the-scenes actors in this year's Peace Council announcement, Pastor Timothy was able to initially secure support from Bo Mya's family, inking some of their names to a declaration announcing the formation of the council. As with earlier attempts at drawing Karen leaders into negotiations with the SPDC, however, he seemed to overestimate his standing among his fellow Karen. CHIANG MAI 00000066 002.2 OF 002 Within days of the announcement, Bo Mya's son and widow quickly withdrew their names after an outcry from the exile community. WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE PEOPLE~. ¶7. (C/NF) By March, KNU-Peace Council frictions compounded other tensions in the border region, involving both the Thai and Burmese governments and the DKBA (ref E). While KNU and DKBA forces skirmished along the border, Pastor Timothy told PolOff that KNU forces blocked several dozen Karen families looking to join Htain Maung, and were threatening retaliation against any perceived traitors. He proudly showed video footage of Htain Maung meeting with DKBA leaders and the European academics. Ironically, KNU officials and supporters also presented or referenced this same video footage while making their case to PolOff that Peace Council members had sold out to the SPDC and betrayed the Karen peoples' interests. KNU leaders continue to shrug off the defection as minor, contending that the result is a stronger, more unified core of supporters. "We're more comfortable without him here causing dissent," said one KNU leader. ¶8. (C/NF) KNU leaders point to several signs that the faction has not attracted true support from the Karen people. Media reports in March said that many of the initial defectors later returned to KNU territory claiming that they had been paid by Peace Council leaders to join them. Once the money ran out, they left the camp. One NGO leader active on the border said Htain Maung had ordered 500 uniforms in anticipation of attracting support from other KNLA units, but most are still on the rack. ¶9. (C/NF) KNU leaders also said their RTG and RTA contacts opposed the Peace Council's formation and agenda to build support among other factions of Karen, as any move that weakened the KNU would strengthen the DKBA and increase the unpredictability of border politics. The Thais prefer consistency, one leader told PolOff, and value the KNU's historic role as a buffer against the SPDC. ~ BUT SIGNS OF INTEREST FROM THE SPDC ¶10. (C/NF) Despite an apparent lack of support among the Karen people, there are several signs of interest from the SPDC in strengthening Htain Maung's position. In late March, KNU sources showed ConGen staff examples of ID cards issued by the SPDC to Peace Council members for travel within Karen State. The ID cards had caused particular concerns, this source said, as recipients included ethnic Karen Thai nationals who had supposedly joined the Peace Council only for financial gain. That these Thai nationals were now carrying de facto Burmese identification cards and posing as Peace Council members troubled local Thai officials, the source said. ¶11. (C/NF) Sources on both sides of the conflict said the SPDC had promised significant benefits to Peace Council members. While Htain Maung's group characterized these payments as support for infrastructure at Hto Kaw Koe, detractors said they were mostly personal payments to Peace Council leaders in cash or other assets. According to The Irrawaddy, a Chiang Mai-based media organization that covers Burma, the SPDC is reaching out to other KNU/KNLA leaders with financial incentives to break off from the resistance. ¶12. (S/NF) Peace Council leaders have sought to portray themselves as the KNU's representatives in negotiations with the SPDC. Pastor Timothy says the splinter group intends to pursue unification with the DKBA, which controls much of the territory surrounding Hto Kaw Koe, and active participation in the ongoing process to draft a new Burmese constitution. In a letter to KNU officials, Htain Maung said that SPDC Maj Gen Ye Myint had appointed him the "only point of contact" for KNU leaders looking to discuss peace negotiations with the DKBA or SPDC. "If the KNU leadership desires to negotiate with the Burma government, they must go through me alone," his letter reads. COMMENT: FURTHER CHALLENGES TO KAREN UNITY ¶13. (C/NF) Htain Maung and his Peace Council have little support among rank-and-file Karen. However, his departure marks the biggest defection in several years and KNU leaders show signs of increasing fatigue in the face of another military offensive, yet again with former allies joining their adversaries in the attacks. Despite KNU leaders' optimistic spin that they are better off without Htain Maung, it is unlikely that this "stronger KNU core" will be able to reverse the gradual loss of territory and morale suffered over the past several years. End Comment. CAMP