BORDER FIGHTING HEATS UP AFTER KNU SPLIT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000066

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/10/2017
TAGS: PREL PINS TH BM
SUBJECT: BORDER FIGHTING HEATS UP AFTER KNU SPLIT

REF: A) RANGOON 199, B) CHIANG MAI 22, C) RANGOON 263, D) CHIANG MAI 35, E) CHIANG MAI 63

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CLASSIFIED BY: John Spykerman, Political Officer, CG Chiang Mai,
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)



1. (C/NF) Summary. Shaken by a recent split in its ranks, the
Karen National Union (KNU) took more battering this week, as
soldiers allied with former KNU 7th Brigade Commander Htain
Maung joined State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) forces in an attack
against KNU units near the Thai-Burma border, according to local
media reports and NGOs operating in the area. The attack comes
on the heels of a suspected KNU assault on family members of
Brig Gen Htain Maung, who left the KNU in January. Although KNU
officials sought to portray the January split as a minor shakeup
that left the core KNU stronger, the latest developments spell
trouble for the long-time resistance group. End Summary.

WAR OF WORDS GETS VIOLENT


2. (C/NF) Rival KNU groups have waged a war mainly fought with
words since former 7th Brigade leader Htain Maung led his
faction away from the KNU fold in January (ref A, B). For two
months, both sides traded verbal barbs, exchanging dueling
accusations of corruption and irrelevance. The exile community
initially lashed out at Htain Maung's defection, in which a few
hundred soldiers and families appeared to join in, but later
dismissed the breakaway as insignificant. They noted several big
names - including members of recently deceased KNU leader Gen.
Bo Mya's family - had distanced themselves from Htain Maung
after initially appearing to have condoned, or even joined in,
the desertion. However, Htain Maung and his "KNU/KNLA Peace
Council" made several moves in March that showed that while they
might not have caught the imagination of the Karen people, they
had made inroads with the SPDC and its DKBA allies, who saw
opportunities for anti-KNU propaganda.


3. (S/NF) The situation grew tenser on April 1, when troops
believed to belong to the KNU's Karen National Liberation Army
(KNLA) attacked Htain Maung's traveling party as they were
traveling between Karen State and Thailand. Ler Moo, Htain
Maung's son-in-law, and two teenage boys sustained serious
injuries from gunshots. All three received treatment at a
hospital in Mae Sot. Ler Moo, who is also one of Htain Maung's
top lieutenants, later moved to Chiang Mai for additional
treatment. Many sources believe new 7th Brigade leader Brig Gen
Johnny carried out the April 1 attack under orders from KNU
leaders (KNU spokesmen told local media that they did not play a
role in the attack.) A source close to Htain Maung's family said
that Royal Thai Army officials have warned them that the KNU may
attempt more attacks.


4. (C/NF) Prior to the April 1 attack, the breakaway faction
appeared to be building closer ties to the DKBA and SPDC
leaders. Those ties came into light as Htain Maung's forces
apparently joined SPDC and DKBA forces in a series of skirmishes
against KNU positions and the headquarters of the Karen Youth
Organization north of Mae Sot in Karen State this past weekend.
A report from the Free Burma Rangers, an NGO assisting Karen
resistance organizations and refugees, said those attacks pushed
another 200 Karen villagers to flee to Thailand, while the
SPDC's latest offensive has displaced some 1,000 villagers in
Karen State this month.


5. (C/NF) Before the attack, Peace Council members had begun to
aggressively advertise alleged progress they had made in
brokering an end to the 60-year-old conflict between the Karen
and Burma's central government. Following his defection from the
KNU, Htain Maung led about 300 soldiers and their families to
Hto Kaw Koe village in Karen State, where he has since held
meetings with the SPDC, DKBA, and a visiting delegation of
European academics (ref C). Sources familiar with the situation
say SPDC officials, such as Maj. Gen. Ye Myint, met with Htain
Maung at the funeral of long-time KNU leader Gen. Bo Mya last
December in an attempt to divide the KNU ranks (ref D). Since
then, the SPDC has used the relationship with Htain Maung's
group to annoy KNU leaders and sow dissention in their ranks.


6. (C/NF) Pastor Timothy, a self-described peacemaker who
reportedly has held a grudge against KNU leaders since he lost
his seat on the KNU's Central Executive Committee, encouraged
Htain Maung's break with mainline KNU leaders. Over the past few
years, Pastor Timothy pursued an independent peacemaking agenda,
holding meetings with the SPDC and DKBA despite the KNU's
condemnation of his actions. As one of the key behind-the-scenes
actors in this year's Peace Council announcement, Pastor Timothy
was able to initially secure support from Bo Mya's family,
inking some of their names to a declaration announcing the
formation of the council. As with earlier attempts at drawing
Karen leaders into negotiations with the SPDC, however, he
seemed to overestimate his standing among his fellow Karen.

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Within days of the announcement, Bo Mya's son and widow quickly
withdrew their names after an outcry from the exile community.

WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE PEOPLE~.


7. (C/NF) By March, KNU-Peace Council frictions compounded other
tensions in the border region, involving both the Thai and
Burmese governments and the DKBA (ref E). While KNU and DKBA
forces skirmished along the border, Pastor Timothy told PolOff
that KNU forces blocked several dozen Karen families looking to
join Htain Maung, and were threatening retaliation against any
perceived traitors. He proudly showed video footage of Htain
Maung meeting with DKBA leaders and the European academics.
Ironically, KNU officials and supporters also presented or
referenced this same video footage while making their case to
PolOff that Peace Council members had sold out to the SPDC and
betrayed the Karen peoples' interests. KNU leaders continue to
shrug off the defection as minor, contending that the result is
a stronger, more unified core of supporters. "We're more
comfortable without him here causing dissent," said one KNU
leader.


8. (C/NF) KNU leaders point to several signs that the faction
has not attracted true support from the Karen people. Media
reports in March said that many of the initial defectors later
returned to KNU territory claiming that they had been paid by
Peace Council leaders to join them. Once the money ran out, they
left the camp. One NGO leader active on the border said Htain
Maung had ordered 500 uniforms in anticipation of attracting
support from other KNLA units, but most are still on the rack.


9. (C/NF) KNU leaders also said their RTG and RTA contacts
opposed the Peace Council's formation and agenda to build
support among other factions of Karen, as any move that weakened
the KNU would strengthen the DKBA and increase the
unpredictability of border politics. The Thais prefer
consistency, one leader told PolOff, and value the KNU's
historic role as a buffer against the SPDC.

~ BUT SIGNS OF INTEREST FROM THE SPDC


10. (C/NF) Despite an apparent lack of support among the Karen
people, there are several signs of interest from the SPDC in
strengthening Htain Maung's position. In late March, KNU sources
showed ConGen staff examples of ID cards issued by the SPDC to
Peace Council members for travel within Karen State. The ID
cards had caused particular concerns, this source said, as
recipients included ethnic Karen Thai nationals who had
supposedly joined the Peace Council only for financial gain.
That these Thai nationals were now carrying de facto Burmese
identification cards and posing as Peace Council members
troubled local Thai officials, the source said.


11. (C/NF) Sources on both sides of the conflict said the SPDC
had promised significant benefits to Peace Council members.
While Htain Maung's group characterized these payments as
support for infrastructure at Hto Kaw Koe, detractors said they
were mostly personal payments to Peace Council leaders in cash
or other assets. According to The Irrawaddy, a Chiang Mai-based
media organization that covers Burma, the SPDC is reaching out
to other KNU/KNLA leaders with financial incentives to break off
from the resistance.


12. (S/NF) Peace Council leaders have sought to portray
themselves as the KNU's representatives in negotiations with the
SPDC. Pastor Timothy says the splinter group intends to pursue
unification with the DKBA, which controls much of the territory
surrounding Hto Kaw Koe, and active participation in the ongoing
process to draft a new Burmese constitution. In a letter to KNU
officials, Htain Maung said that SPDC Maj Gen Ye Myint had
appointed him the "only point of contact" for KNU leaders
looking to discuss peace negotiations with the DKBA or SPDC. "If
the KNU leadership desires to negotiate with the Burma
government, they must go through me alone," his letter reads.

COMMENT: FURTHER CHALLENGES TO KAREN UNITY


13. (C/NF) Htain Maung and his Peace Council have little support
among rank-and-file Karen. However, his departure marks the
biggest defection in several years and KNU leaders show signs of
increasing fatigue in the face of another military offensive,
yet again with former allies joining their adversaries in the
attacks. Despite KNU leaders' optimistic spin that they are
better off without Htain Maung, it is unlikely that this
"stronger KNU core" will be able to reverse the gradual loss of
territory and morale suffered over the past several years. End
Comment.
CAMP