REQUIEM FOR A GENERAL

UNCLAS CHIANG MAI 000035 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: GOV PREL PINS TH BM SUBJECT: REQUIEM FOR A GENERAL REF: A. A) CHIANG MAI 22 (KNU RIFT WIDENS) ¶B. B) CHIANG MAI 04 (PLANS FOR SALWEEN DAMS MOVE AHEAD DESPITE OPPOSITION) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The Dec. 26 funeral of former Karen National Union (KNU) leader Gen. Bo Mya provided a stage for some of the alliances and shifting relationships that characterize the longest-running resistance to the Burmese regime. Attendees included most elements of the Karen resistance as well as representatives of Burma's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and Thai military intelligence. The RTG policy toward the KNU remains unchanged by the funeral or the Sept. 19 coup, favoring negotiations and focusing on the military elements of the KNU to play a key role in peace talks with the SPDC. End summary ¶2. (U) Background: The Thai-Burma border around Mae Sot in Tak province hosts up to a million ethnic Karen and a large number of Karen exile organizations. The most prominent of these organizations is the KNU, which has resisted the central government in Burma since 1949, much of that time under the leadership of Bo Mya. The Thai government has long given tacit support to the KNU, viewing the Karen as allies who provided a buffer against both the Burmese army and (in a former time) communist insurgents. Nevertheless, the Thai military has encouraged the KNU to seek a deal with the SPDC and pressured the Karen to re-start peace talks with the regime. ¶3. (SBU) With Thailand's post-coup government pre-occupied in the south and elsewhere, officials working along the Burma border say they have received no significant instructions from Bangkok in recent months. Although several members of the Council for National Security (CNS) were known as opponents of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's policy of engagement with the SPDC, the change of government in Bangkok has had little impact along the border. Third Army Commander LTG Jiradej Kosharat told the CG Feb. 9 that the RTA wants the KNU to heal its internal rifts and negotiate with the SPDC. ¶4. (SBU) Karen Women's Organization (KWO) General Secretary Zipporah Sein confirmed in a Feb. 15 conversation Thai pressure on the KNU to negotiate with the regime. She quickly noted, however, that the Thais have more than one policy agenda, including business interests in Karen State. Zipporah specifically mentioned the prospect of future energy generation from the proposed Salween dams and reported that one of the many wreaths at Gen. Bo Mya's funeral was sent by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, a state enterprise that has signed a Memorandum of Understanding about the dams with the SPDC (ref b). ---Burial in Burma--- ¶5. (U) Many of these complicated dramas and odd bedfellows were at play during Gen. Bo Mya's well-attended funeral Dec. 26 in Karen State about 20 kilometers west of Mae Sot. The decision to bury Bo Mya inside Karen State was made by his son Col. Ner Dah, who did not want the long-time resistance fighter to be seen as just another leader who died while in exile. ¶6. (SBU) A National Intelligence Agency officer (NIA) officer estimated 2,000 participants at the funeral while others put the number much higher: Karen villagers, exiled political activists and several close associates of Bo Mya together with some officers from Burma Army and the pro-regime Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA). SPDC representatives attended the funeral - and sent a wreath -- as a gesture of respect to their long-time enemy and erstwhile negotiating partner, with whom they reached a "Gentleman's Agreement" ceasefire in 2004. ¶7. (SBU) The SPDC envoys also reportedly used the funeral gathering to entice 7th Brigade Commander Htain Maung into ceasefire talks, leading to his Jan. 30 dismissal by the KNU (ref a). Since then, both KNU headquarters and Htain Maung's group have circulated statements against each other, with both sides claiming Bo Mya's mantle. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: Although Bo Mya's funeral may have accelerated existing rifts in the Karen resistance, both Thai military and KNU sources now claim to be relatively unconcerned over the 7th Brigade group that splintered off at the end of January. Nevertheless, tensions within the Karen resistance remain high, with former colleagues accusing each other of succumbing to the manipulation of outsiders. The KNU is under pressure from the Thai army to negotiate with the SPDC, but will likely wait for shifting alliances to settle before making any moves CAMP