TAMIL NADU BJP EAGER FOR ALLIANCE WITH JAYALALITHAA'S

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000661 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV IN SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU BJP EAGER FOR ALLIANCE WITH JAYALALITHAA'S AIADMK REFS: A) CHENNAI 0605 B) CHENNAI 0477 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: India's major political parties, the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),are minor players in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Two regional parties - the DMK and the rival AIADMK - dominate the state, leaving Congress with approximately 10-15 percent and BJP with 5-7 percent of the vote. With the Congress party closely allied with Tamil Nadu's ruling DMK party, the state's BJP is looking to Tamil Nadu's other major regional party - the AIADMK led by J. Jayalalithaa - as a potential partner in future parliamentary elections. Jayalalithaa, however, is notoriously mercurial and it is difficult to predict how she will react to the BJP's efforts to woo her. END SUMMARY. CONGRESS AND BJP WEAK IN THE SOUTH; NEED REGIONAL ALLIES -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Tamil Nadu's political scene is dominated by the DMK and AIADMK. These "Dravidian" parties, which appeal to speakers of the Tamil language, have alternated in power in Tamil Nadu since 1967. With the Dravidian parties firmly in control, the major national parties Congress and BJP are relegated to being niche players. The consensus view of political analysts is that BJP usually garners only five to seven percent of the vote and Congress ten to fifteen percent in a given election. Karti Chidambaram, a young Tamil Nadu Congress party leader (and son of India's Finance Minister P. Chidambaram),told post "Congress is not a political party in Tamil Nadu, just a small vote bank." ¶3. (SBU) Dravidian party dominance in Tamil Nadu means that the national parties need allies to be competitive in the state. The DMK is a member of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance. The parties remain close despite the DMK's lukewarm support of Congress on the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal and the DMK's disappointment with Congress's equivocation on the "Ram Sethu" issue (ref A). DMK member of parliament Kanimozhi (who is the daughter of the DMK's octogenarian leader Karunanidhi) recently told post that "the DMK is with the Congress party" despite their recent disagreements. The Congress-DMK relationship is strong, which means the BJP has no choice but to look to Jayalalitha's AIADMK. (COMMENT: Although the political terrain appears relatively set with the DMK joining Congress and BJP looking to the AIADMK, it bears noting that opportunism rather than ideology is the guiding force for the Dravidian parties when considering which national party they should join with. The DMK, whose leaders who now say they are ideologically opposed to the BJP, were part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government from 1999 to 2004. The AIADMK has also allied with both the BJP and Congress. END COMMENT.) DMK WITH CONGRESS, BJP NEEDS JAYALALITHAA'S AIADMK -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In an October 26 meeting with BJP State President L. Ganesan and National Executive Member Sukumaran Nambiar, the BJP leaders pined for an alliance with the AIADMK. They were honest in their assessment that BJP in Tamil Nadu "is a very small" party and they need to ally with one of the Dravidian majors. Ganesan and Nambiar said they have "ruled out" the possibility of partnering with the DMK, whose aggressively atheistic leader Karunanidhi insulted Hindu religious sentiment during the Ram Sethu matter. They emphasized the compatibility of BJP and AIADMK saying Jayalalithaa is a natural ally for the BJP, being ideologically "akin to us." Ganesan fondly recalled that it was Jayalalithaa who ended his party's political isolation in 1998 by being the first secular regional party to join hands with the BJP. ¶5. (SBU) Ganesan and Nambiar said a BJP-AIADMK alliance would be a mutually helpful arrangement. The BJP, they said, would benefit from the AIADMK's voter base in Tamil Nadu which would allow them to elect members of parliament who support a BJP-led coalition. In return, an alliance with BJP would give the regional AIADMK an association with a credible national leader to project as its Prime Minister candidate. They also feel that the AIADMK and the BJP together could reap electoral benefits from the polarization brought about by the Ram Sethu issue. MERCURIAL JAYALALITHAA NOT RUSHING TO DECIDE -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Ganesan said that although a BJP-AIADMK tie-up is in the pipeline, official consultations between the parties have not begun yet. He said BJP is "informally in contact with friends in the other parties" but acknowledged that the actual formation of alliances would take place much closer to the elections. Jayalalithaa, for her part, remains typically inscrutable. She helped found the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA) in June ¶2007. The UNPA, also known as the Third Front, was created as an alternative to the BJP and the Congress. But she has since distanced herself from the UNPA. In August, AIADMK legislators did not vote with their UNPA colleagues in India's presidential election, instead voting for the BJP candidate (ref B). ¶7. (SBU) The vote for the BJP presidential candidate, along with Jayalalithaa's support for the BJP position in the Ram Sethu controversy, fueled speculation that she was moving the AIADMK towards an alliance with the BJP. Living up to her reputation for being mercurial, she quickly backtracked. Asked about Karunanidhi's charge that the AIADMK, along with the BJP and its affiliates known as the "Sangh Parivar," were out to stall the Sethusamudram project using the Ram Sethu issue, she said: "I am not a part of the Sangh Parivar. I've no alliance with the BJP. We are an independent party with our own ideologies and convictions." Meanwhile, the few AIADMK members who would talk to us, as usual, do not have a clue as to what is on her mind. An AIADMK member of parliament told post that he believed that there would be a BJP-AIADMK alliance if the BJP does well in the upcoming elections in the north Indian states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. But he emphasized it was only his personal view and that Jayalalithaa would ultimately decide. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT. As a minor party in Tamil Nadu, the BJP needs an alliance with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK in order to be a factor in the state. The depth of their eagerness was evident when Nambiar mentioned the controversial arrest of Kanchi Shankaracharya, a prominent Hindu religious figure, during Jayalalithaa's tenure as Chief Minister. The 2004 arrest had infuriated the BJP and its affiliates. But Nambiar told post that BJP had "forgiven" Jayalalithaa and "forgotten" the arrest. BJP has much to gain from a potential alliance, but the benefits to AIADMK are less clear. Our BJP interlocutors emphasized the value to the AIADMK of being associated with BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in the national polls. The AIADMK parliamentarian, however, noted that BJP does not bring many votes to the table. Moreover, BJP's reputation for Hindu nationalism scares off Tamil Nadu's substantial Muslim and Christian minority voters. Jayalalithaa, whose control over her party is absolute, will ultimately have to weigh the costs and benefits and decide. Our best guess is that, assuming Karunanidhi and the DMK stay in the Congress-led UPA, she will join up with BJP -- but as usual, on her terms. END COMMENT. ¶9. This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. KAPLAN