TRICKLE OF SRI LANKAN REFUGEES TO INDIA COULD BECOME FLOOD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000654 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PRM/ANE FOR MELISSA PITOTTI E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV IN SUBJECT: TRICKLE OF SRI LANKAN REFUGEES TO INDIA COULD BECOME FLOOD IF WAR BREAKS OUT IN NORTH ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The flow of Sri Lankan Tamil refugees to the south Indian state of Tamil Nadu has steadily declined to less than 200 a month. But the situation could quickly reverse itself: our contacts say that up to 50,000 refugees could arrive in India within a few months if war breaks out in northern Sri Lanka. They are confident India can handle an influx of new refugees but note that it could cause political trouble for Tamil Nadu's ruling DMK party and, by extension, India's United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government in New Delhi. END SUMMARY. REFUGEES ARRIVE IN SMALLER NUMBERS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to the Organization for Eelam Refugees Rehabilitation (OfERR),there are a total of 79,772 Sri Lankan refugees registered in camps in India. Arrivals from Sri Lanka have steadily decreased in the past two years, with less than 200 Sri Lankan refugees reaching Indian shores in each of the past few months. This is in sharp contrast to the situation in mid-2006 when thousands landed each month. Figures for monthly refugee arrivals follow: 2006 May: 1456 June: 1770 July: 1822 August: 5769 September: 3794 October: 750 November: 364 December: 319 2007 January: 412 February: 890 March: 524 April: 339 May: 286 June: 279 July: 193 August: 105 September: 159 October (10/17) 138 REFUGEES WILL FLOOD IF WAR BREAKS OUT IN THE NORTH -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) OfERR founder-treasurer S.C. Chandrahasan told Post that the situation will dramatically change if the government of Sri Lanka attacks the stronghold of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the north of the country. He said that up to 50,000 refugees could land in Tamil Nadu within two to three months under such circumstances. Chandrahasan was certain that Tamil Nadu's refugee camps could easily absorb the additional numbers. But journalists pointed out that such a situation could be politically difficult for Tamil Nadu's ruling DMK. News of a military attack in northern Sri Lanka coupled with a flood of refugees will likely stimulate sentiment in favor of Sri Lankan Tamils, leading to calls for the DMK use its influence as a member of the ruling UPA to have India pressure Sri Lanka to halt its offensive. Regardless of the government of India's response, Tamil Nadu's opposition parties would no doubt demand that the DMK explain why it could not do more to stop the suffering of Tamils in Sri Lanka. REFUGEE ADVOCATES APPRECIATE USG INITIATIVE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Chandrahasan expressed great appreciation for the recent invitation for proposals for U.S. assistance funds to improve conditions at the Sri Lankan refugee camps. He pointed out that water and sanitation are priority needs. He also urged the United States to be sensitive to the need to consider the overall local environment when evaluating the conditions in the camps. The refugee camps are often located amidst impoverished Indian communities. It is important, he said, not to squander the goodwill of Indian host communities by conspicuously widening the gap between the living conditions of the refugees and those of he poor Indian villagers in surrounding communites. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Heightened monitoring by oth the Indian and Sri Lankan navies and the thrat of impounding traffickers' boats have limited the flow of refugees to Tamil Nadu. Despite these curbs, we will likely see a flood of refugees if the Sri Lankan army goes on the offensive in the north. The refugee camps, civil society, and CHENNAI 00000654 002 OF 002 Tamil Nadu's bureaucratic machinery can handle a heavy influx of refugees. But such a flood will cause pressure to build on the DMK party to influence the UPA government in New Delhi to engage Sri Lanka. END COMMENT. ¶6. This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. KAPLAN