BANGALORE CALM AFTER CAUVERY RIVER WATER VERDICT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000100 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, CA/OCS, DS/IP/SCA, DS/DSERCC, DS/ITA AND DS/OSAC NEW DELHI FOR POL, RSO, FCS, DAO, ODC AND CONS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KWWT ASEC CASC SOCI KCRM ECON IN SUBJECT: BANGALORE CALM AFTER CAUVERY RIVER WATER VERDICT REF: A) CHENNAI 52 B) CHENNAI 31 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Bangalore remained calm on February 6 following an interstate river water tribunal verdict on February 5 over a long-simmering dispute involving the sharing of water that flows through the southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Perceived injustice in Karnataka sparked impromptu demonstrations across the state on February 5. Mission personnel currently in Bangalore to support the USG presence for Aero India 2007 air show were unhindered and most city businesses functioned normally. There were no reports of American citizens being caught up in the demonstrations. A strong police presence and clear orders from the government ensured law and order. The verdict may provide a new framework through which interstate river water disputes could be settled. End summary -------------- -------------- Karnataka perceived as loosing its share of river water -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a decision more than 17 years in the making, the Cauvery Water Dispute Tribunal gave its "final" verdict on February 5, allocating 419 Thousand Million Cubic Feet (TMCFT) of the estimated 750 TMCFT that flows through the river Cauvery to Tamil Nadu. Karnataka on the other hand was allocated 270 TMCFT. The award, however, reduces the quantum of water that Karnataka must release from its reservoirs to neighboring Tamil Nadu to 192 TMCFT, compared with 205 TMCFT required by the 1991 interim award. -------------- -------------- Perceived injustice leaves parts of Bangalore tense -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Perceptions of injustice, especially among Kannada chauvinist and farmer groups such as the Kannada Senna and Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha, resulted in sporadic demonstrations in a few Bangalore localities on February 5. Processions, road and rail blockades were the forms of protest adopted in the districts of Mysore, Mandya, and Chamrajnagar. These were unorganized, however, and died down by evening when the media began reporting the nuances of the verdict. Karnataka Chief Minister Kumaraswamy has scheduled an al- party meeting on February 6 at 1600 to discuss the verdict. Some political groups have proposed a state wide strike on February 8 to protest the decision. -------------- Aero India: The Show goes on -------------- ¶4. (U) Mission personnel in Bangalore on February 5, to facilitate USG participation in the air show Aero India, were able to go about their business unhindered. With the disturbances restricted to a few localities, Mission personnel accessed the Indian Air Force base at Yelahanka, the show's venue, without difficulty. Embassy officers in the city also went through their separate schedules without any problems. Shops and businesses closed early, however, as did schools and college,s more as a precaution than due to real violence. -------------- US Citizens safe -------------- ¶5. (U) U.S. citizen wardens in Bangalore confirmed to post's ACS Unit that violence and tensions are largely localized, with disruptions only for people who live in or pass through affected areas. The U.S. Commercial Service's Bangalore branch office operated as usual. -------------- -------------- Clear orders and strong police presence ensures order -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Anticipating tension, however, the state governments of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu put police personnel on alert. Karnataka went a step further and sought additional forces from Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, the other southern states. Clear orders were issued to the police to put down any violence in both states. All- party meetings called by the Karnataka Chief Minister ensured an early political consensus - likely affected by the need to preserve calm during Aero India -- that kept organized demonstrations off Bangalore's streets. Post will continue to monitor the situation and CHENNAI 00000100 002 OF 002 will report further developments. -------------- -------------- Bangalore Image Intact for Now; Verdict a possible model -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Although the situation remains fluid, so far the government of Karnataka has succeeded in controlling the on-the-street reaction to the water verdict, protecting for now the Bangalore "brand" recently tarnished by other outbreaks of violence. On the technical side, irrigation experts in both Tamil Nadu and Karnataka hail the verdict as a just allocation of water resources and for naming an implementation authority. The verdict, they say, provides a framework through which other ongoing river water disputes throughout India between various states could be settled. By naming the Central Water Commission as the implementing authority, the tribunal has placed allocation of river water in the hands of the central government, altering the distribution of power between the center and the states. Since other inter-state water related disputes may now be handled at the central government level, this could give rise to charges of Central political favoritism to states allied with the governing coalition by states that end up as losers in any future water sharing dispute. ¶8. (SBU) In terms of political fallout, this verdict has the potential to create problems for the Congress party in Karnataka. Many political analysts in Delhi opine that the verdict would be seen as a victory for the Congress party's UPA allies in Tamil Nadu and as a set back for the BJP/Janata Dal coalition in Karnataka. With the Congress Party on shaky ground in Karnataka, analysts expect the Party to be on the defensive if Karnataka were to go to polls in the near future. End Comment. ¶9. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. HOPPER