NORTHERN MOROCCO ELECTORATE EXPECTS LITTLE FROM ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CASABLANCA 000180 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/MAG AND NEA/PI E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2017 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL MO SUBJECT: NORTHERN MOROCCO ELECTORATE EXPECTS LITTLE FROM ELECTIONS REF: A) RABAT 1394; B) RABAT 1395; c) RABAT 1248 Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Charles Cole for reasons 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In Al Hoceima, on Morocco's Mediterranean coast, estimates of voter turnout vary. Most believe participation will be low, and will not exceed 50 percent. Those interviewed said they would cast their votes based on family and tribal connections or what a candidate had done for them, rather than on party. That said, many registered distaste for the (Islamist) Party of Justice and Development (PJD). While a few individuals claimed a corruption-free environment, others admitted that bribery remains a problem. On the whole, Al Hoceima residents are fed up with politicians' broken promises and expect nothing from parliamentary elections. Those who go to the polls will vote for voting's sake or to support family, not for a party, platform or principle. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Econoff and FSN visited Al Hoceima on Morocco's Mediterranean coast from August 27-29 to gauge the population's perspective on parliamentary elections to be held September 7. Al Hoceima has about 60,000 residents, most of whom are Rif Berbers. The region runs on remittances from the high percentage of locals who have migrated to Europe. -------------- ESTIMATES OF VOTER TURNOUT VARY -------------- ¶3. (C) Residents of the Al Hoceima area gave varying estimates of expected voter turnout. Dr. Mohamed Boudra, Al Hoceima's mayor and the leading candidate for the Party for Progress and Socialism (PPS), projected a level of participation of 50 percent. Optimistically, he said he believes all types of people will vote, from women to youth to intellectuals. The local (nationalist) Istiqlal party campaign manager, and the brother of the party's main candidate, also estimated 40 to 50 percent participation. ¶4. (C) In the rocky village of Izemmouren, 11 km from Al Hoceima, residents held different views on voter participation. A municipal councilman there said he expected voter turnout to reach 80 percent. Despite this prediction of high participation, however, he thought few women would vote - a feeling shared by several young men from the town. In addition, the councilman conceded that many villagers live four to six kilometers from the nearest polling station, making travel difficult unless someone provides a car - which parties are forbidden to do (ref A). Asked if people would take the initiative to vote under such circumstances, the councilman said yes, they would take a taxi or walk, as they do for lesser activities such as card games. -------------- PICK THE PERSON, NOT THE PARTY -------------- ¶5. (C) Most people agreed that the individual trumps the party when it comes to choosing a candidate. Ever the politician, PPS's Boudra claimed that voters are interested in a candidate's credibility, with party affiliation a strong influence. Residents of Izemmouren, however, were more direct, saying that people would vote for someone if he was family, put on a good show, or completed projects in the area. A councilman in Izemmouren declined to name his candidate of choice, but did say he was a relative. Similarly, a group of unemployed young men indicated that, though they did not yet know for whom they would vote, family or tribal connections would drive their decision. -------------- BUT DON'T PICK THE PJD -------------- ¶6. (C) While people placed more importance on the candidate than his party affiliation, many expressed distain for the (Islamist) Party of Justice and Development (PJD). Both Istiqlal's campaign manager and Boudra felt the PJD had showed up too late, opening their local headquarters just a few weeks prior to the start of the official campaign period. In separate conversations, both men noted with amused derision that the PJD calls itself 'the party of Islam.' As the Istiqlal campaign manager put it, "What does that make us?" ¶7. (C) According to Boudra, the PJD plays upon the sentiments of disenchanted youth, who feel Muslims are victims and want to lash out against the West. He believes the people of Al Hoceima do not go in for this line of thinking, as they are traditional and cling to the religion of their parents and grandparents. A young woman who works CASABLANCA 00000180 002 OF 002 at Al Hoceima's Regional Investment Center did say she would vote for the PJD "to see what they could do," but this may be a function of the fact that she is not from Al Hoceima but from Taza, closer to Fez where the PJD has more influence. -------------- -------------- CORRUPTION-FREE ELECTIONS - IN WORD, IF NOT IN DEED -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) At least in word, corruption in Morocco is no longer a la mode. Izemmouren's councilman insisted that his town is corruption-free and that no one would trade votes for bribes. To emphasize his point, he swore he would sooner survive on cactus fruit than resort to vote-selling. Izemmouren's young men also said they could not be bought. The councilman's high estimate of voter turnout, combined with avowals of no corruption, suggest that citizens have at least heard the GOM's pre-election rhetoric, encouraging voting and discouraging corruption. Further discussion, however, revealed that reality may not match rhetoric. One of the young men, for example, said that if he accepted a bribe, he would not necessarily vote as promised. Furthermore, he would expect a service in return for selling his vote. ¶9. (C) PPS candidate Boudra put the onus on the electorate to refuse bribes, saying "corruption functions in the conscience of voters" (ref A). He admitted that candidates buy votes with money, but believed the presence of observers will prevent this. With over 500 polling stations in Al Hoceima alone, however, he said 3000 country-wide observers are grossly insufficient. -------------- BROKEN PROMISES, NO EXPECTATIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Across the board, people in Al Hoceima expect little from parliamentary elections. One woman working at a microcredit bureau said she will not go to the polls on election day because she "does not want to vote for someone to sleep in parliament." A young man from Izemmouren recounted the story of a campaigning candidate who asked him what town he was in; naturally, the young man questioned how someone who does not even know where he is can help him. Candidates and voters alike agree that people put more stock in municipal elections than parliamentary ones, reflecting their preoccupation with basic problems such as transport, sanitation and unemployment, as well as their utter disappointment with politicians who fail to make good on promises. Still, some Al Hoceima residents will vote, if only because "at least if they vote, they are trying." ¶11. (C) Comment: The image of two teenage boys distributing campaign flyers by Al Hoceima's taxi stand sums up the election outlook in northern Morocco. One tries to give the flyers to passersby, while the other tosses a few on the ground every few steps, eager to be rid of his stack. While some seem willing to go through the motions of participating in a parliamentary election, the majority is apathetic and sees the exercise as futile. End Comment. COLE