VENEZUELA: A NEW TIME LAUNCHES NATIONALLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 000569 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: A NEW TIME LAUNCHES NATIONALLY CARACAS 00000569 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON FOR 1.4 (B) AND (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Zulia Governor and former opposition presidential candidate Manuel Rosales launched his Zulia-based Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT, or A New Time in English) as a national "alternative opposition" party March 3. The new UNT incorporates Rosales' trusted Zulian advisers and popular Caracas personalities that were prominent in his 2006 presidential campaign as well as dissidents from other opposition parties. Shortly after the launch, Rosales told the Ambassador that he was only "cautiously positive," doubting that half of his supporters understood his strategy of presenting a positive political agenda rather than simply opposing Chavez. While Rosales remains the opposition's preeminent leader, the UNT must overcome several hurdles to become a national opposition force, including its association with discredited politicians and Rosales' own increasingly domineering tendencies within the party, which are threatening opposition unity. End Summary. -------------- Rosales Launches National Party -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Zulia Governor and former opposition presidential candidate Manuel Rosales launched the official conversion of his Un Nuevo Tiempo (A New Time) from a Zulia-based party to a national one March 3. Deploying the mantra "a new social democracy," Rosales presented familiar themes from his presidential campaign as the party's platform. The party plans to hold an ideological congress within six months and elections in a year, something few opposition parties have done in recent history. Not known as a strong orator, Rosales kept his clear if pedestrian remarks to just under 40 minutes and promised the UNT would be a "pluralistic alternative," rather than yet another "mere opposition party." Rosales also swore in new party leaders. -------------- The New UNT Team -------------- ¶3. (C) In keeping with the "big-tent" theme of his presidential campaign team, the new UNT leadership includes dissidents from various opposition parties, most of whom had prominent roles in his 2006 presidential campaign. Perhaps �00A;the most notable non-Zulian additions are former Primero Justicia (PJ) leaders Gerardo Blyde and Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez, who were named Secretary General and Vice President of Citizen Participation and Popular Networks, respectively. After splitting from PJ in early February, Blyde and Lopez were expected to form their own party, Justicia Popular, but in recent weeks had decided to negotiate with UNT. Unconfirmed press accounts say that they were responsible for the inclusion of social democracy in the party's motto. ¶4. (U) Rosales announced three commissions in charge of the party's transition: -- Organizing Commission: This board is a mixture of Rosales' Zulian inner circle members and popular Caracas personalities. It will establish the regional committees, outline their responsibilities, and organize the ideological congress. Its members are Rosales' closest political advisor and former Zulia Governor Omar Barboza, President; Blyde; Lopez; Accion Democratica (AD) dissident Alfonso Marquina, Vice President of Legislative and Regional Affairs; William Ojeda, Vice President of Sectorial Affairs; Rosales' electoral expert Enrique Marquez, Vice President of Organizational Affairs; and Enrique Ochoa Antich, Executive Secretary. SIPDIS -- Consultative Committee: This group will advise and work with the Organizing Commission to devise the party's short, medium, and long-term strategies. It consists of Rosales; senior Zulia State official and Rosales' 2006 campaign manager Jose Vicente Carrasquerro; left-wing intellectual and one-time guerillero Americo Martin; columnist and former National Assembly (NA) Deputy Rafael Simon Jimenez; and Mariela Mendoza. CARACAS 00000569 002.2 OF 004 --Political Committee: "Tal Cual" editor and ex-presidential candidate Teodoro Petkoff's advisor former campaign manager Francisco Layrisse; PJ dissident and former NA deputy Liliana Hernandez; former Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) NA deputy Julio Montoya; Luis Manuel Esculpi; Rosales inner circle and former UNT NA member Angel Emiro Vera; Diego Bautista Urbaneja; Aristedes Hopedales; Luis Emilio Rondon, ex-AD member who challenged Henry Ramos Allup for leadership of the party; Chavez' former Agriculture Minister Hiram Gaviria; and Adalberto Perez. -- Separately, Rosales also appointed area coordinators that will oversee the party's growth in each state. Noteworthy coordinators include Timoteo Zambrano, who served as Rosales' international secretary in the 2006 campaign; oil sector expert and former Venezuelan representative to OPEC Heliodero Quintero; PJ dissident D'elsa Solorzano; and former MAS NA Deputy Carlos Tablante. -------------- Party Building Threatens Opposition Unity -------------- ¶5. (C) Rosales' efforts to establish UNT as a principal opposition force are predictably annoying the traditional opposition parties. Christian Democratic Party (COPEI) Sub-Secretary General Alejandro Vivas told Poloff March 1 that Rosales' self-imposed, "one-month public and private black-out" generated hard feelings that still persist among COPEI and other opposition parties. Vivas also complained that Rosales appears to be moving away from a consensual decision-making model to a more unilateral approach, which is causing friction with the opposition. For example, during Rosales' Caracas press conference in which he announced a shared agenda with UNT, PJ, Movement Toward Socialism, Causa R, Bandera Roja, and COPEI, Rosales abruptly announced a platform on which the parties had not reached agreement, creating more hard feelings. When COPEI subsequently presented Rosales with a list of areas where it could work with him; he "counter-offered" that COPEI should dissolve into UNT. -------------- Rosales' Expectations -------------- ¶6. (C) Following the UNT launch ceremony, Rosales, his former campaign finance chief Ruben Barboza (Omar's brother), Zulia Director of Sports Oslando Munoz, former NA Deputy William Barriento, and Juan Barboza (cousin of Ruben and Omar) called on the Ambassador at his residence. Rosales was only cautiously positive on the launch of the national UNT. He thought only about 50% of the supporters actually understood what he was trying to do: engage Chavez with a positive agenda that challenged his policies and programs. Rosales thought the other 50% simply despised Chavez, and did not understand the concept of actually having a political agenda. That said, he is in politics for the long term and UNT is organizing a national movement. Rosales said he expected Chavez to go after him aggressively this year, but he is ready to push back. ¶7. (U) Indeed, the BRV's attack on Rosales is underway. On March 8 the National Assembly (NA) voted to petition the Attorney General and Comptroller to investigate Rosales for the Zulia government's alleged failure to pay retirement bonuses to its retirees and diversion of money the NA approved for such payments. The NA's oversight, finance, and social development commissions will open a separate investigation. During a March 9 press conference a defiant Rosales explained that the debt was from past administrations, including that of Chavez crony and current Ambassador to the UN Francisco Arias Cardenas, and that his administration had been paying it off. Rosales accused the Chavistas of trying to entrap him by demanding he use the national government funds to pay off the arrears in violation of constitutional provisions requiring half of said money to be used for social projects. -------------- Trip to Washington -------------- ¶8. (C) The Ambassador also brought up Rosales' recent trip to Washington and told him that he had done his cause no help CARACAS 00000569 003.2 OF 004 by the last minute cancellation of most of his meetings. In fact, he noted the entire process was not skillfully handled. Rosales explained that he had to cancel the high profile events when Sumate put him in Chavez, cross-hairs by attacking the results of the December elections. The Ambassador countered that the planned dinner with OAS Secretary General Insulza was not high profile, and he SIPDIS probably should have thought of this possibility before setting up the meetings. Rosales agreed, but said he thought the meetings with A/S Shannon and NSC Senior Director Fisk were very positive. Zulia Sports Director Munoz called poloff March 6 to convey that Timoteo Zambrano would be Rosales' liaison to the international community in Caracas to ensure better coordination and communication in the future. Munoz will perform the same function in Maracaibo. -------------- The Zulia Strategy -------------- ¶9. (C) The Ambassador noted that the Embassy should be ready by the end of the month to make some specific proposals of Zulia projects and programs we could support through NAS, USAID, PAS, and the law enforcement agencies. He assured him that nothing would be launched without his green light. Rosales said the USG has the green light; the more the better. The Ambassador said we are not necessarily looking for a high profile launch, since that would probably put him squarely in Chavez, cross-hairs again. Rosales said it did not bother him, and that, on the contrary, he hopes some of the inaugurations could be very high profile. The Ambassador noted some of the projects would have to be targeted at non-UNT mayors in Zulia, such as San Francisco Municipality Mayor Saadi Bijani (COPEI),as well. Rosales accepted that fact, and also wanted to suggest some other opposition municipalities for direct support. -------------- Rosales' Next International Trip -------------- ¶10. (C) Rosales said he wanted to go back to Washington, but thought his next foreign trip should be to other countries, such as Brazil, Chile, Peru, Mexico, or some European countries. Rosales asked for USG help in arranging meetings. The Ambassador advised that it would be better if his own people took the lead, but said if approached by his international coordinator for help on specific appointments, we probably could help behind the scenes. Rosales said that on his next visit to Washington, he hoped to see Members of Congress as well as U.S. press. At some point, he would also seek a senior White House meeting. The Ambassador recommended waiting on the latter appointment until a later trip to Washington, and told Rosales he should be sure to engage both parties in Congress. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Zulia Governor Rosales remains the opposition's best hope for the future. He ran a skillful campaign in 2006, and is planning a long-term strategy and a positive, alternative agenda with which to challenge Chavez, something many opposition parties are lacking. His pledge to hold internal elections, as many Chavista parties but relatively few opposition ones have done in recent years, may also attract opposition supporters. Rosales also has experience in mounting a nationwide campaign. ¶12. (C) Still, it is difficult to build a national structure from a regional base, and it remains to be seen if the UNT can attract people outside of Zulia and Caracas. Although Rosales has incorporated popular, young, politicians from Caracas (the largest voting district),many other UNT leaders are associated with the discredited parties and policies of the pre-Chavez era. These recycled political figures may undermine his message that UNT represents a new, more serious brand of opposition politics. They may also hinder his efforts to reach out to Chavista moderates and undecided voters. We are also hearing more complaints about Rosales' increasingly controlling tendencies within the opposition, which threaten to alienate other parties and undermine efforts to maintain opposition unity. While these complaints are coming from opposition groups that have badly mishandled their approach to Chavez over the past eight years, Rosales CARACAS 00000569 004.2 OF 004 may need to redeploy some of his excellent coalition-building skills. Continued planning gaffes like those committed during his most recent Washington trip will hurt attempts to garner international support as well. BROWNFIELD