A DEFIANT CHAVEZ DECLARES INTENTION TO REVISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002290

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: A DEFIANT CHAVEZ DECLARES INTENTION TO REVISIT
CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. After appearing more statesmanlike in his
December 4 concession speech, President Chavez lashed out at
the opposition during a December 5 news conference, calling
the "No" camp's electoral win in a December 2 constitutional
referendum a "Pyhrric" and "sh-tty" victory. Chavez declared
his intention to launch a "second offensive" for
constitutional reform, although he did not specify when or
how he would do so. During a December 6 press opportunity,
Chavez also criticized his supporters in key states and
argued once again that Venezuela is confronting the United
States. Contrary to Chavez' harsh public line, former Vice
President Jose Vicente Rangel has reportedly initiated a
private dialogue with opposition party leaders at Chavez'
behest, according to Rangel's former Chief of Staff. While
political dialogue is much needed in polarized Venezuela,
real political progress across party lines is unlikely,
particularly if Chavez tries to resurrect his failed
constitutional package or implement it in other forms. End
Summary.

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What Defeat?
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2. (SBU) At a December 5 press conference, Defense Minister
Gustavo Rangel Briceno denied widespread rumors and press
accounts that senior military officials pressured Chavez to
accept an electoral defeat in the December 2 constitutional
referendum. Defense Minister Rangel Briceno publicly rebuked
his predecessor and "No" camp campaigner former Defense
Minister Raul Isaias Baduel, saying the armed forces did not
want the congratulations of someone who is "plotting the
betrayal of loyalty and friendship." An animated and
agitated Chavez, who appeared at the press conference
apparently unannounced, also denied rumors that he was forced
to accept electoral defeat by the military, bellowing "I am
immune to pressure." Chavez called such accounts pure
fiction "worthy of a Nobel Prize in literature."


3. (SBU) Chavez insisted that his government had "lost
nothing" on December 2 and that defeat was preferable to a
narrow "catastrophic" victory. He suggested that he told the
National Electoral Council to declare the "No" camp the
winner with a 1.4% lead with 88 percent of the polls
reporting, even though after all the votes were counted, he
might have actually won. Chavez warned the opposition to
"manage their victory" carefully, calling it a "Pyrhhic" and
"sh-tty" victory. Warming to his subject, Chavez also told
the opposition to prepare itself for a "new offensive,"
arguing that his proposed constitutional reforms can be
resubmitted "in other conditions."


4. (C) Chavez did not specify when or how he intended to
revisit his constitutional reform proposals. Article 345 of
the 1999 Constitution prohibits resubmitting a defeated
reform proposal in the same constitutional period. There is
growing speculation that Chavez may eventually seek to
reintroduce constitutional amendments through other methods
allowed in this constitution, such as a signature drive
requiring 15 percent of registered voters' signatures.
Alternatively, some opposition leaders suggest that Chavez
could convoke a constitutional assembly. They privately
concede that Chavez could still win an outright majority of
seats were he to opt for another constitutional assembly.


5. (SBU) The Venezuelan president also revealed that his
government had contingency plans to mobilize troops to take
physical control of radio and TV stations "inciting violence"
after polls closed on December 2. He claimed his government
had infiltrated the opposition and knew the primary and
secondary locations where hard-line opposition groups planned
to initiate riots. He warned the opposition that it could
never defeat the government and Venezuelan people. (Note:
There were no major violent incidents during referendum
balloting).


6. (SBU) During a December 6 press opportunity, Chavez
praised states like Aragua for voting for his proposed
constitutional package and said Miranda State and Caracas
"owe me a debt" for voting "No." He told his supporters that
they had "no excuses" because "real revolutionaries stop at
nothing." Chavez also complained that "now I have to leave
government in 2013 because you did not pass the reform." He

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reiterated his campaign message that Venezuela is not only
confronting only "Yankee wanna-bes" here, but also "the most
powerful empire -- the United States."

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Private Dialogue
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7. (C) Rene Arreaza, the Chief of Staff to former Vice
President Jose Vicente Rangel, told the Charge November 6
that Chavez recognized he lost Sunday's constitutional
referendum because his supporters "didn't buy" his reforms.
Arreaza said former VP Rangel attended a 4:30 Sunday
afternoon meeting with Chavez and other unnamed advisors, at
a time when exit polling was showing a narrow "Yes" victory.
According to Arreaza's version of events, Chavez declared he
didn't want a "Pyrrhic victory with a mere two percent"
margin. Arreaza refuted the stories that the military high
command prevented Chavez from reversing a clear "No" victory.
Instead, Chavez preferred defeat to a contested victory that
could lead to violence.


8. (C) Arreaza said that the reforms were "indigestible" for
Chavez' base and that excessive bureaucracy, Chavez' own
rhetoric, voter fatigue with Chavez, and shortages of basic
food staples all contributed to the defeat of Chavez'
proposed changes to the constitution. Despite Chavez'
continued opposition-bashing, Arreaza said the Venezuelan
president has asked former VP Rangel to reach out to the
opposition. Arreaza said Rangel this week met with Primero
Justicia leader Julio Borges, and Un Nuevo Tiempo leaders,
including Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez. The government sees
Lopez as the best channel to the student movement, added
Arreaza.

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Comment
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9. (C) In contrast to his efforts to be statesmanlike in his
early morning December 4 concession speech, Chavez has
subsequently adopted a much tougher posture against the
opposition -- and his own supporters too. In so doing, he
appears to be undermining his own argument that he is a "true
democrat," not an autocrat, as well government accounts that
Chavez serenely accepted electoral defeat on December 2. The
government has entertained virtually no dialogue with the
opposition since Jorge Rodriguez replaced Jose Vicente Rangel
in January 2007. Renewed communication across party lines
would be both positive and a sign that Chavez, despite his
bravado, understands he had taken a real political hit.
Nevertheless, we do not anticipate much to come out of such
dialogue in this highly polarized political environment,
particularly if Chavez somehow resurrects his failed
constitutional reform package or tries to implement it in
other forms.

FRENCH