A DEFIANT CHAVEZ DECLARES INTENTION TO REVISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002290 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL VE SUBJECT: A DEFIANT CHAVEZ DECLARES INTENTION TO REVISIT CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES CARACAS 00002290 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. After appearing more statesmanlike in his December 4 concession speech, President Chavez lashed out at the opposition during a December 5 news conference, calling the "No" camp's electoral win in a December 2 constitutional referendum a "Pyhrric" and "sh-tty" victory. Chavez declared his intention to launch a "second offensive" for constitutional reform, although he did not specify when or how he would do so. During a December 6 press opportunity, Chavez also criticized his supporters in key states and argued once again that Venezuela is confronting the United States. Contrary to Chavez' harsh public line, former Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel has reportedly initiated a private dialogue with opposition party leaders at Chavez' behest, according to Rangel's former Chief of Staff. While political dialogue is much needed in polarized Venezuela, real political progress across party lines is unlikely, particularly if Chavez tries to resurrect his failed constitutional package or implement it in other forms. End Summary. -------------- What Defeat? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At a December 5 press conference, Defense Minister Gustavo Rangel Briceno denied widespread rumors and press accounts that senior military officials pressured Chavez to accept an electoral defeat in the December 2 constitutional referendum. Defense Minister Rangel Briceno publicly rebuked his predecessor and "No" camp campaigner former Defense Minister Raul Isaias Baduel, saying the armed forces did not want the congratulations of someone who is "plotting the betrayal of loyalty and friendship." An animated and agitated Chavez, who appeared at the press conference apparently unannounced, also denied rumors that he was forced to accept electoral defeat by the military, bellowing "I am immune to pressure." Chavez called such accounts pure fiction "worthy of a Nobel Prize in literature." ¶3. (SBU) Chavez insisted that his government had "lost nothing" on December 2 and that defeat was preferable to a narrow "catastrophic" victory. He suggested that he told the National Electoral Council to declare the "No" camp the winner with a 1.4% lead with 88 percent of the polls reporting, even though after all the votes were counted, he might have actually won. Chavez warned the opposition to "manage their victory" carefully, calling it a "Pyrhhic" and "sh-tty" victory. Warming to his subject, Chavez also told the opposition to prepare itself for a "new offensive," arguing that his proposed constitutional reforms can be resubmitted "in other conditions." ¶4. (C) Chavez did not specify when or how he intended to revisit his constitutional reform proposals. Article 345 of the 1999 Constitution prohibits resubmitting a defeated reform proposal in the same constitutional period. There is growing speculation that Chavez may eventually seek to reintroduce constitutional amendments through other methods allowed in this constitution, such as a signature drive requiring 15 percent of registered voters' signatures. Alternatively, some opposition leaders suggest that Chavez could convoke a constitutional assembly. They privately concede that Chavez could still win an outright majority of seats were he to opt for another constitutional assembly. ¶5. (SBU) The Venezuelan president also revealed that his government had contingency plans to mobilize troops to take physical control of radio and TV stations "inciting violence" after polls closed on December 2. He claimed his government had infiltrated the opposition and knew the primary and secondary locations where hard-line opposition groups planned to initiate riots. He warned the opposition that it could never defeat the government and Venezuelan people. (Note: There were no major violent incidents during referendum balloting). ¶6. (SBU) During a December 6 press opportunity, Chavez praised states like Aragua for voting for his proposed constitutional package and said Miranda State and Caracas "owe me a debt" for voting "No." He told his supporters that they had "no excuses" because "real revolutionaries stop at nothing." Chavez also complained that "now I have to leave government in 2013 because you did not pass the reform." He CARACAS 00002290 002.2 OF 002 reiterated his campaign message that Venezuela is not only confronting only "Yankee wanna-bes" here, but also "the most powerful empire -- the United States." -------------- Private Dialogue -------------- ¶7. (C) Rene Arreaza, the Chief of Staff to former Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel, told the Charge November 6 that Chavez recognized he lost Sunday's constitutional referendum because his supporters "didn't buy" his reforms. Arreaza said former VP Rangel attended a 4:30 Sunday afternoon meeting with Chavez and other unnamed advisors, at a time when exit polling was showing a narrow "Yes" victory. According to Arreaza's version of events, Chavez declared he didn't want a "Pyrrhic victory with a mere two percent" margin. Arreaza refuted the stories that the military high command prevented Chavez from reversing a clear "No" victory. Instead, Chavez preferred defeat to a contested victory that could lead to violence. ¶8. (C) Arreaza said that the reforms were "indigestible" for Chavez' base and that excessive bureaucracy, Chavez' own rhetoric, voter fatigue with Chavez, and shortages of basic food staples all contributed to the defeat of Chavez' proposed changes to the constitution. Despite Chavez' continued opposition-bashing, Arreaza said the Venezuelan president has asked former VP Rangel to reach out to the opposition. Arreaza said Rangel this week met with Primero Justicia leader Julio Borges, and Un Nuevo Tiempo leaders, including Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez. The government sees Lopez as the best channel to the student movement, added Arreaza. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) In contrast to his efforts to be statesmanlike in his early morning December 4 concession speech, Chavez has subsequently adopted a much tougher posture against the opposition -- and his own supporters too. In so doing, he appears to be undermining his own argument that he is a "true democrat," not an autocrat, as well government accounts that Chavez serenely accepted electoral defeat on December 2. The government has entertained virtually no dialogue with the opposition since Jorge Rodriguez replaced Jose Vicente Rangel in January 2007. Renewed communication across party lines would be both positive and a sign that Chavez, despite his bravado, understands he had taken a real political hit. Nevertheless, we do not anticipate much to come out of such dialogue in this highly polarized political environment, particularly if Chavez somehow resurrects his failed constitutional reform package or tries to implement it in other forms. FRENCH