CHAVEZ LOSES CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002274 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ LOSES CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM CARACAS 00002274 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES, REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced at 1:19 a.m. on December 3 that President Chavez and his supporters failed to win public approval for proposed, sweeping changes to the 1999 Constitution. According to the CNE announcement, Venezuelans voted down both blocks of the 69 total proposed changes by a small margin -- 51 to 49 percent. Low voter turnout disproportionately plagued the "Yes" camp, leading to Chavez' first electoral defeat ever. Embassy observation teams in Caracas and eight states noted some irregularities, but none that appeared to have made a significant difference in the results. Based on their "quick counts" that showed a 53-47 "No" win, opposition leaders, confident of victory after polls closed, pressed the CNE to announce preliminary results in the tense run-up to the early morning official announcement. In a televised speech immediately following the "No" victory, a somber Chavez conceded defeat "for now." He also said the ideas behind his 69 proposed changes remain "alive" and pledged to press ahead in the short term with his Bolivarian revolution within the 1999 Constitution. End Summary. -------------- Official CNE Results -------------- ¶2. (U) CNE President Tibisay Lucena announced an irreversible "No" victory in both blocks of proposals to change 69 articles of Venezuelan's 350-article 1999 Constitution at 1:15 a.m., several hours after polls closed on December 2. The CNE's preliminary results based on 97 percent of the returns are: First Block: No - 50.7 percent; Yes - 49.3 percent Second Block: No - 50.7 percent; Yes - 48.9 percent CNE officials reported an abstention rate of 44.11 percent, significantly higher than the 25 percent abstention rate in the 2006 presidential election but lower than the 56 percent abstention rate when Venezuelan voters approved the 1999 Constitution. The CNE should release final results later this week. ¶3. (U) The high rate of abstention could not be attributed to weather as Venezuela experienced pleasant, sunny weather nationwide during voting hours. Absentionism appears to have hurt the "Yes" camp disproportionately, according to CNE figures. Chavez won 7.3 million votes in the 2006 presidential election, but the "Yes" camp polled only 4.4 million votes. Conversely, consensus opposition president candidate Manuel Rosales polled 4.3 million votes in 2006 and the "No" camp secured just 200,000 more votes in the constitutional referendum. -------------- Electoral Conditions -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Referendum voting on December 2 was peaceful. Some leaders of the "No" block complained that technical problems with digital fingerprint machines were causing voting delays in opposition neighborhoods. Many voting machines also experienced problems, and repairs and replacements appeared to take longer in opposition areas. They also complained that the indelible purple ink used at many centers to prevent carrousel voting could be washed off. Voting centers were supposed to open at 6:00 a.m., but a sizable portion opened late, not unusual in Venezuela. CNE President Tibisay Lucena announced around 8:45 a.m. that all centers were open and functioning, and the CNE extended the close of polls from 4:00 p.m. until 6:00 p.m. There were isolated reports that polling stations in pro-government areas remained open, even though no voters were waiting in line, so that additional voters could be brought in. ¶5. (SBU) Embassy deployed 14 informal election observer teams in Caracas and eight states. They visited roughly 150 polling stations, or about one percent of the polling stations. Three of the teams were able to stay after the polls closed and watch the tabulation of votes. They reported that technical problems with digital fingerprint machines created long lines in some centers. CNE officials told the media that long lines in front of digital CARACAS 00002274 002.2 OF 003 fingerprint machines are natural because they are the first station of the voting process. Emboffs visited two polling stations in opposition neighborhoods that had been moved without notice. They also confirmed that the indelible ink at some polling stations could be washed off. British, Canadian, and French Embassy observer teams reported similar irregularities and observations. ¶6. (SBU) Emboffs noticed fewer displays of partisan political paraphernalia around polling stations than was the case in the 2006 presidential election. CNE regulations do not allow political campaigning in and around polling stations. An Embassy team in Chavez' native village in Barinas State observed Chavistas guiding and urging voters to vote "Yes," but did not observe similar irregularities at any of the other polling stations they visited in Barinas. Indeed, emboffs noticed far fewer examples of pro-government supporters busing voters to the polls or checking names of persons who had voted than was the case in the 2006 presidential election. In media appearances, CNE President Tibisay Lucena and Vice President Jorge Rodriguez both lauded the role of 100-120 international observers invited by the CNE, asserting incorrectly that the United States does not permit international electoral observers. ¶7. (SBU) An as yet unidentified assailant attempted to run down former Defense Minister Raul Isaias Baduel with his car after Baduel voted in Maracay. Baduel was not injured in the incident, although some persons near him were slightly injured. Local media reports that the police have arrested Baduel's attacker, but have not yet released his name. Baduel broke with President Chavez and has campaigned for the "No" camp. ¶8. (C) The "No" camp ran at least two separate "quick counts" based on the results of 122 and 300 representative polling stations forwarded to them by election monitors. By 9:00 p.m. the "No" camp believed it had won 53 percent to 47 percent based on its "quick counts." Electoral NGO Sumate's parallel tabulation of results called in from 1200 polling stations showed that the "No" camp had beaten the "Yes" camp by 56 percent to 44 percent. Confident of victory, opposition leaders and student activists urged "No" activists to remain at polling stations and converged on the CNE to demand that the CNE issue the preliminary results of the referendum. -------------- Chavez' Concession Speech -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Chavez convoked his cabinet, senior military leaders, and other government officials to the presidential palace to attend his post-election televised address to the nation. In his 35-minute early morning speech, Chavez conceded that the "No" camp had won an "irreversible" electoral victory, adding his catch-phrase from his attempted 1992 coup, "for now." Chavez tacitly acknowledged that he had prevented the ostensibly autonomous CNE from announcing the "No" victory much earlier on election night, stating that he debated with himself for a long time whether to withhold the election results until all the returns had come in. Blaming the referendum defeat on abstentionism among his supporters, Chavez asked his supporters to reflect on ways to convert the electoral setback into a "moral victory." Chavez insisted his 69 proposed changes to the constitution remain "alive," but did not say how or when he intended to pursue them again. The Venezuelan president pledged to continue to press ahead with his Bolivarian revolution within the framework of the existing 1999 Constitution. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) The stunning defeat of the constitutional referendum is President Chavez' first electoral loss since he won the presidency in 1998. From the beginning of the 30-day campaign, this was the Venezuelan president's referendum to win or lose, and it appears he and his supporters lost it by failing to mobilize the pro-government electoral machine, as they have done successfully in 11 previous national, state, and local elections. The revitalized opposition benefited significantly from the emergence of the university student movement, the "No" positioning of the pro-Chavez party Podemos, and the defection of former Defense Minister Baduel. Chavez remains president, however, and the opposition still CARACAS 00002274 003.2 OF 003 needs to present Venezuelan voters with a credible alternative to Chavismo if it is going to build on this electoral victory and start winning the confidence -- and votes -- of Chavez's significant base. DUDDY