CHAVEZ' COLD WAR WITH COLOMBIA AND SPAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002231 SIPDIS SIPDIS USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER CO VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ' COLD WAR WITH COLOMBIA AND SPAIN REF: A. BOGOTA 08224 ¶B. CARACAS 2187 Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Hugo Chavez publicly announced November 25 that he was putting relations with Colombia "in the freezer" following his dismissal as mediator between Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) by Colombian President Uribe. Describing Uribe with a string of epithets, he described the Colombian decision as being a "spit in the face". Chavez added that relations with Spain are also "on ice" until King Juan Carlos apologizes for telling him to shut up at the recent Iberoamerican summit in Santiago. Chavez' decision could have an impact on numerous bilateral projects, such as the Colombia-Venezuela natural gas pipeline. Chavez explicitly threatened business relations with Colombia, which exports USD four billion of goods and services to Venezuela (compared to one billion from Venezuela). Chavez' tirades against Colombia and Spain seem more likely to hurt the Venezuelan president's international image than his domestic standing. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Chavez reacted angrily to Colombian President Uribe's November 21 decision to cancel his mandate as mediator between the Government of Colombia and the FARC. During televised speeches in the Colombian border state of Zulia, Venezuelan President Chavez claimed that Uribe had been "unmasked as a bald faced liar and a cynic." Chavez said he felt sorry for the Colombian people because they had "a lying leader who would not show his face". The Venezuelan president observed that "Colombia deserved another President, one better, more dignified." Chavez said the GOC report that Chavez made unauthorized contact with Colombian Army Chief Mario Montoya was "loaded with lies." He denied seeking a conversation with General Montoya and accused Uribe of "listening to rumors from the gringos, the oligarchs and a Colombian military that doesn't want peace." Chavez also blamed the United States for perpetuating the war between Colombia and the FARC as an excuse to "get into our faces." ¶3. (C) A Foreign Ministry Colombia Desk Officer told Poloff November 26 that Chavez' announcements against the Colombian government caught everyone by surprise. Asked about one Venezuelan media report that Venezuela may close its Embassy in Bogota, the desk officer said he doubted it. He was, however, unsure how, or if at all, this would affect the estimated four million Colombians living in Venezuela. ¶4. (SBU) Chavez also said that he was "freezing" Venezuela's relations with Spain until Spanish King Juan Carlos offered an apology for telling him to shut up, announcing "We have our dignity." Chavez had previously announced a comprehensive review of relations with Spain (Ref B),but his November 25 announcement went even further. The Venezuelan media reported widely on November 26 that Spanish Secretary of State for Iberoamerica Trinidad Jimenez would meet with Venezuelan Ambassador to Spain Alfredo Toro to learn the exact extent of the freeze. ¶5. (C) Comment. The one-two punch of Uribe's imposition of a deadline to his mediation efforts followed by a public cancellation of the Chavez mediation effort later that same week ignited a very public Chavez tantrum against Uribe. Chavez also appears to be still smarting from the Spanish King's rebuke. While not new, Chavez' latest tirades against Colombia and Spain may erode his international standing precisely at the time when he was trying to build it up through his "humanitarian" efforts to free FARC hostages. It remains to be seen what Chavez means by "freezing" relations with Colombia and Spain, but at a minimum, government-to-government contacts are likely to remain tense in the near term and could spur selective retaliation against some Colombian and Spanish firms. We do not anticipate, however, that Chavez' disputes with Colombia and Spain will hurt him substantially with his core supporters in the days leading up to the December 2 constitutional referendum. DUDDY