REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 21-23

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002225

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TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 21-23

REF: CARACAS 02214

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Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Pro-government and opposition university
students across the country organized demonstrations in
support of and against President Chavez' reform package
November 21. Opposition student leaders announced that
university students will not participate in the opposition's
march November 26, apparently fearing violence, but called
for their own march later in the week. Accion Democratica
(AD) party members announced that AD voters are permitted to
vote "No," contrary to its recent history of abstention,
while opposition student leaders also called on their base to
vote "No." The National Electoral Council (CNE) recently
prohibited the distribution of campaign material by four
organizations, arguing they violated CNE norms. CNE
President Tibisay Lucena briefed the diplomatic community
November 23 on the CNE,s preparations for the December 2
referendum. Meanwhile, the TSJ declined to hear petitions on
the legality of the proposed reforms. Separately,
opposition-oriented cable network Globovision continues to
operate under the close scrutiny of the Bolivarian Republic
of Venezuela (BRV). END SUMMARY.

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Students Still Active
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2. (SBU) Pro-government students convoked a youth rally and
march November 21 in favor of the "Yes" bloc. The event
culminated outside of Miraflores, the presidential palace,
where Chavez addressed the assembled students. The
Venezuelan president called on them to vote "Yes," and warned
them to be vigilant because "the imperialist oligarchy is
desperate and trying to destabilize the country and lead it
towards violence." Chavista student leader Cesar Trompe told
the press he thought 50,000 persons participated in the day's
events, including university students and students enrolled
in Bolivarian educational "missions." Live television
coverage of the rally did not appear to show a crowd that
big, although it appeared to be the biggest Chavez youth
rally in recent memory. Local media showed the large number
of buses used from public university campuses to transport
participants.


3. (SBU) The opposition student movement also called on its
base to mobilize November 21 in commemoration of the "Day of
the Student" (Reftel A). Newly-elected president of the
Federation of the Central University of Venezuela's (UCV's)
Colleges, Ricardo Sanchez, publicly urged students to vote
"No" in the constitutional referendum, indicating a shift in
the student movement's original position to postpone it.


4. (SBU) Caracas-based student leaders, including Freddy
Guevara, Yon Goicochea, and Sanchez, held a press conference
November 22 at UCV to announce that university students will
not participate in the opposition's "March of No Return"
scheduled for November 26. The leaders justified their
position by saying they feared for the safety of the
demonstrators given the country's current political
polarization. Sanchez said "we won't fall into their trap of
violence," and instead announced a student march to Plaza
Bolivar in downtown Caracas on November 29.


5. (SBU) Chavez warned against the opposition student
movement's initial plans to march to Miraflores in a
televised speech November 22. Chavez said "It (Miraflores)
is liberated land, it belongs to the people, not to the
oligarchs or to daddy's kids. (Note: Chavez has employed
this last term in several speeches in an effort to tarnish
the image of opposition-oriented students. End Note). In
addition, Chavez said that he had already "given
instructions" to Pedro Carreno, Minister of Interior and
Justice, to freeze any attempt by the students to march to
the presidential palace.


6. (SBU) Opposition-oriented students around the country also
participated in the "Day of the Student" activities. Over
20,000 students participated in a march in the university
town of Merida. Other street actions were reported in
Aragua, Carabobo, and Anzoategui states. In many cases, the
demonstrators carried banners that read "No to the Reform"
and distributed informational flyers. Separately, the
national press reported that between two and three Monteavila
University students suffered injuries after Municipal Police

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(PM) officers fired rubber bullets and threw rocks at them on
November 21. The students, who were assembled on the
shoulder of a busy Caracas highway, were passing out flyers
when they were confronted by members of the PM.

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AD Gives Members Green Light To Vote
--------------


7. (C) Center-left political party Accion Democratica (AD)
President Victor Bolivar told the media November 19 that the
party is permitting AD voters to vote "No" if they want.
This represents a small shift in AD's policy: in the past two
national elections, AD directed its members to abstain from
voting. AD even expelled some high profile members for
actively supporting Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales,
presidential campaign against President Chavez. AD is one of
the two political parties that dominated Venezuelan politics
prior to Chavez, election in 1998; however, only a very
small percentage of Venezuelan voters currently identify
themselves as AD members. Nevertheless, AD still maintains a
nation-wide presence, including in some Chavez strongholds,
and grass-roots AD support could give the "No" bloc a small
boost on December 2. An Un Nuevo Tiempo party leader told us
that AD is already providing a noteworthy number of polling
station monitors in a number of states outside Caracas.

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COPEI Proposes Debates
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8. (SBU) Roberto Enriquez, a political leader of the
center-right party COPEI, invited the "Yes" bloc to debate
Chavez' proposed reforms November 23 at the National
Electoral Council's (CNE's) headquarters. CNE rectors
originally announced that three debates would be held before
the referendum. However, representatives from the "Yes" bloc
were absent when the organizing committee in charge of the
debates met, resulting in their indefinite postponement.
Following Enriquez' statement, CNE rector German Yepez held a
press conference to clarify that the CNE did not endorse the
debates called by Enriquez. Rather, Yepez asserted that
while the CNE was not opposed to the debates, they could not
"force" any of the two blocs to partake in them against their
will.

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More Groups Oppose Reform
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9. (SBU) The evangelical umbrella group, Evangelic Forum,
issued a strong statement November 21 rejecting Chavez'
proposed, constitutional reforms. It asserted that the
constitution openly violates Christian values. The
announcement is significant because the religious
organization tends to be apolitical and many of its members
are government sympathizers. Separately, the leftist
Tupamaro movement in Sucre state held a press conference and
announced its support for the "No" bloc. The organization's
Secretary General Jesus Yepez accused the president of

SIPDIS
attempting to stay in power indefinitely.

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CNE
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10. (SBU) In a November 21 press conference, CNE President
Tibisay Lucena announced that the CNE pulled reform-related
campaign material pertaining to four groups. Lucena
explained that one organization was registered with the "No"
bloc and two with the "Yes" bloc. The fourth group was not
registered with any side but rather called for abstention.
The CNE is charged with regulating all campaign material
pertaining to the referendum vote. This is not the first
time it has sanctioned groups who allegedly violated CNE
norms.


11. (C) On November 23, Lucena, flanked by CNE Rectors German
Yepez and Sandra Oblitas, gave a one-hour presentation to the
diplomatic community on the CNE,s preparations for the
December 2 referendum. Lucena expressed confidence that the
CNE would be ready on Election Day at the over 11,000 voting
centers. She also stressed the CNE,s efforts to promote
"inclusion" in recent years to increase voter registration.
Asked about international observers, Lucena said the CNE has
invited the presidents of its counterpart electoral
organizations in the United States, Latin America, Canada,

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and Europe to participate. She also said as many as four
domestic electoral observation NGOs would be accredited to
observe the referendum. In response to another query,
Oblitas insisted that the CNE has redoubled its efforts to
ensure that its electoral registration rolls are valid.

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The TSJ and the Reform
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12. (SBU) In a November 22 press conference, Supreme Court
(TSJ) magistrates announced that the court can only rule on
the legality of the constitutional reform package if and when
it is approved by referendum. They argued that the TSJ does
not have the legal authority to rule on pending legislation,
as is the case with the reform measures proposed by Chavez.
Given their position, the TSJ also declined to hear 16
petitions to review the legality of the reforms. Judicial
observation NGOs and human rights organizations have harshly
criticized the TSJ for its slow response to the numerous
reform-related petitions before it.


13. (SBU) Separately, the deans of the Political Science
Departments of UCV, the Catholic University Andres Bello
(UCAB),the Metropolitan University, and the University of
Carabobo petitioned the Supreme Court (TSJ) November 21 to
suspend the referendum and annul the reform package. The
dean from UCAB argued that the reform package proposes to
redefine the nature of the Venezuelan state by making it a
"socialist" one. That amendment, the dean argued, could
potentially exclude those Venezuelan that do not consider
themselves "socialists" from certain protections and public
services.

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GLOBO: Tough Times Ahead
--------------


14. (C) Sources at all-news cable network Globovision told us
November 21 that the station's management recently advised
its staff to begin exploring other employment opportunities.
The network reportedly paid out an early Christmas bonus to
its employees and told them to "prepare for the worst" after
the December 2 referendum. According to these sources, while
the BRV has not sent the station official notification of
possible sanctions or closure, Globovision has recently
received several calls from the Telecommunications Regulatory
Agency's (CONATEL),the Committee on Media Social
Responsibility, and the CNE, all of which have the legal
authority to reprimand the network. The local press reported
that the National Network of Bolivarian Circles, the
precursors to the Consejos Communales, and the Bolivarian
Press Alternative, both pro-government associations, filed a
complaint with CONATEL against Globovision on November 22,
accusing the network of "conspiring against the government."


DUDDY