LEGISLATURE PASSES CHAVEZ' CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002124 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2022 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: LEGISLATURE PASSES CHAVEZ' CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE; REFERENDUM NEXT REF: A. CARACAS 002050 ¶B. CARACAS 002120 CARACAS 00002124 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. The National Assembly (NA) voted overwhelmingly November 2 to approve President Chavez' proposed, sweeping constitutional changes and conveyed the approved text to the National Electoral Council (CNE) the same day. The formal 30-day referendum campign has NOW begun, with the CNE is expected to hod the required constitutional referendum on Deceber 2. With Chavez' approval the NA divided theproposals into two parts for the referendum: hisoriginal 33 proposed changes and the 36 late addtions. Opposition parties are organizing a Novembe 3 Caracas march against the constitutional packge; Chavez will lead a pro-reform mass rally in aracas November 4. Chavez, backed by considerabe state resources and continued personal popularty, enjoys a distinct electoral advantage over the divided opposition going into the referendum campign. End Summary. -------------- - National Assembly Passes Chnges to 69 Articles -------------- - ¶2. (SBU) The National Assemby gave final approval November 2 to President Chvez' changes to 69 articles of Venezuela's 350-aticle 1999 Constitution and 15 transitional reguations. Leaders from Chavez' United Socialist Pary of Venezuela (PSUV),the Communist Party (PCV),and Patria Para Todos (PPT) expressed full suppot for the changes. Leaders of the small, pro-Chvez PODEMOS party abstained and accused the legilature of passing Chavez' proposed reforms "blindl" and eliciting insufficient public consultation. The PODEMOS deputies also argued that the nature of the proposed reforms exceed the amendment procedures of the existing constitution and require convoking a constitutional assembly. One PPT NA member also abstained. ¶3. (SBU) NA President Cilia Flores announced that the proposed constitutional changes would be put to a national referendum in two blocs. This decision comes in the wake of President Chavez' surprising October 31 public comments in which for the first time the Venezuelan president suggested the reform package could be voted on in two or three parts. Chavez insisted, however, that his original proposal to change 33 articles be maintained as a single bloc. Chavez had previously insisted that his constitutional reform proposals be voted on in a national referendum as a single package. -------------- CNE Prepares National Referendum -------------- ¶4. (SBU) NA President Cilia Flores and other NA Assembly leaders carried the proposed constitutional changes to the National Electoral Council (CNE) late on November 2 in order to permit the referendum to be held as scheduled on December ¶2. This gives the CNE 30 days to prepare for the required national referendum. CNE officials were already making preparations to hold the vote on December 2, the date President Chavez originally proposed. Venezuelan voters will be able to register two votes -- yes or no -- on the two parts of the constitutional package: the original 33 proposed changes and the 36 additional changes that the National Assembly approved in the second reading. This would maintain controversial elements, such as eliminating presidential term limits, in the same group of articles as more popular proposals, such as reducing the work week to 36 hours. A simple majority of votes in the December 2 referendum is required to enact the constitutional changes. The constitution does not require a minimum percentage of voter participation for approval. -------------- What Chavez Wants... -------------- ¶5. (C) The NA made very few changes to Chavez' proposed constitutional changes during its three readings over the last two months and is widely perceived to have secured the executive's explicit and detailed approval before making these modifications. Early on, BRV officials publicly CARACAS 00002124 002.2 OF 002 backtracked on a proposal to rename and restructure the National Guard. The NA also reinserted some existing language shoring up private property rights that Chavez had proposed deleting. In addition, it modified a provision that would suspend civil liberties and due process during a state of emergency, restoring some, but not all, elements of due process. -------------- The Formal Referendum Campaign Begins -------------- ¶6. (SBU) While public debate over Chavez' proposed constitutional changes has been growing since the Venezuelan president introduced the first tranche of proposals on August 15, the formal referendum campaign began on November 2. Some 20,000 students marched on the National Assembly October 23 and on the CNE November 1 to lobby the BRV to postpone the referendum until February 2008 to allow for more public debate (Ref B). Several opposition parties, including Accion Democratica (AD),left-wing Bandera Roja, Alianza Bravo Pueblo, and the National Resistance Command, are organizing a November 3 march in Caracas against the constitutional reforms. These parties advocate trying to stop the referendum with street protests and advocate abstentionism. President Chavez is slated to lead a mass rally in Caracas November 4 in support of his reforms. ¶7. (C) Opposition and pro-Chavez activists alike are concerned about abstentionism in their ranks. Opposition leaders tell us that they believe a majority of voters oppose Chavez' constitutional changes, but concede that a large number of potential "no" voters intend to abstain, converting "no" sentiment into an electoral minority. An Un Nuevo Tiempo leader told us that, according to recent polling, there is a greater chance of persuading Chavistas to vote "no" than persuading hard-line absentionists to do the same. Pro-reform advocates are warning against voter apathy, confusion, and abstentionist sentiment among Chavistas. One pro-Chavez NA staffer told us that residual "concerns" among Chavez' NA supporters about some of the reforms may be more broadly reflected among Chavez' base. ¶8. (SBU) The CNE regulates and will theoretically supervise the conduct of the "Yes" and "No" campaigns, including disbursing some government funds to both sides. The CNE is requiring political parties and civic organization that intend to participate in the campaigns to register with the CNE during the week of November 5. It remains to be seen how effective the CNE will be in enforcing its rules during the 30-day referendum campaign. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) President Chavez' decision to allow Venezuelans to vote on his constitutional changes in two parts instead of as one package is widely interpreted as a small, but uncharacteristic concession to blunt opposition criticism of the constitutional reform process. After keeping a low public profile the last 14 days, Chavez is expected to travel throughout Venezuela in the coming weeks to rally support for his reforms. (Note: He is also scheduled to attend both the OPEC Summit in Saudi Arabia and the Ibero-American Summit in Chile and visit a number of countries before December 2.) We anticipate the Venezuelan president will also try to frame the referendum as a vote for or against his administration. Despite initial organizational difficulties, Chavez' new single pro-government PSUV party may prove to be a formidable electoral machine. ¶10. (C) By contrast, opposition parties remain divided on whether or not to vote "no" in the December 2 referendum or abstain. In fact, the opposition parties that support voting "no", such as Un Nuevo Tiempo, Primero Justicia, and COPEI, do not intend to join the November 3 Caracas march against Chavez' constitutional reform. Moreover, opposition parties are only beginning the long process of reconstructing their bases. In many cases, by their own admission, they have not yet done much to persuade poor Venezuelans, Chavez' core constituency and an electoral majority, that the constitutional reform will be detrimental to them. DUDDY