CHAVEZ' REFORM PACKAGE PASSES SECOND READING

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001814

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ' REFORM PACKAGE PASSES SECOND READING

REF: CARACAS 01804

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (SBU) The National Assembly (NA) overwhelmingly approved
President Chavez' constitutional reform package during the
second of three readings on September 11, bringing it one
step closer to passage and a national referendum tentatively
scheduled for early December. The proposed changes, however,
were ardently contested by Podemos, a small but prominent
pro-Chavez political party (Reftel). Specifically, Ismael
Garcia of Podemos criticized Chavez' "new geometry of power,"
as another attempt to concentrate more power in the hands of
the president at the expense of local governments.
Furthermore, Garcia disputed amendments that would grant
Chavez the sole authority to name governing officials to
newly created federal provinces, territories, and cities.
Chavista deputies dismissed Garcia's remarks and that of
other Podemos deputies, saying Podemos' position coincided
with that of opposition parties.


2. (C) On September 10, leaders from Primero Justicia (PJ),
the second largest opposition party, Accion Democratica (AD),
and the left-wing Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) met with
the NA's Constitutional Commission to voice their concerns
about the constitutional reform and to present their own
slate of proposals. PJ Secretary General Carlos Ocariz told
Poloff September 11 that opposition leaders were politely
received by the Commission. Nevertheless, he doubted the NA
would incorporate any of the points raised in the meeting
before the third and final reading, which is scheduled for
early November.


3. (SBU) Following the Commission's meeting with opposition
parties, president of the NA Cilia Flores told the press that
several other articles "connected" to the reform package
might need to be revisited as well, including lowering the
voting age from 18 to 16 years. The change would add over
one million new voters to the registry lists if adopted.
(Note: Currently, over 1.5 million eligible Venezuelan voters
have not registered with the National Electoral Council
(CNE). It is unlikely that the CNE will be able to process
these individuals before October 2, the cut-off date
announced by the CNE to register for the referendum. End
Note.) Flores argued that the change would lead to increased
"popular" participation, a primary objective of Chavez'
"socialist" plans. Flores argued that the NA can propose
additions to the reform but only the Venezuelan president can
include them for discussion. Regarding the referendum, CNE
President Tibisay Lucena predicted it would take place on
December 9.


4. (C) Comment: President Chavez' constitutional reform
package is going ahead as scheduled. While Podemos' dissent
is noteworthy, it is unlikely that it can put brakes on the
reform project. Meanwhile, opposition parties remain divided
and despite lessons learned, some continue to advocate
abstention, especially AD. Without a coordinated strategy
and quicker action, the opposition will likely remain
marginal actors during Chavez' constitutional "reform"
process.

DUDDY